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| BOWING OUT | |
 October 20, 1999 
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Elizabeth Dole pulled out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination, saying she did not have enough money to compete. Syndicated columnist Mark Shields, Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot and National Public Radio political coorespondent Elizabeth Arnold discuss Dole's decision after excerpts from her departure announcement.
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GWEN IFILL: And we get more from Shields and Gigot, plus Arnold. That's syndicated columnist Mark Shields and Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot. Joining them tonight is NewsHour regular Elizabeth Arnold, political correspondent for National Public Radio. Mark, Elizabeth Dole says it was the money; that was all it was. What really happened?
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| A rationale for running | |||||||||||
| GWEN IFILL: Well, that was my point to you, Paul, which
is, is any of this her fault at all?
GWEN IFILL: Elizabeth, you've been out there with Mrs. Dole at various events, big trials, lots of women, lots of people who are not necessarily active Republicans at her events. Why didn't that translate into a winning campaign?
And Elizabeth Dole talked a lot about that today, that she was getting these young, first-time voters interested. And that's great for the party; that's really great for the party, and it'll be interesting to see whether they switch allegiances and stay involved. But, again, you know, it's the chicken and the egg question. It's not necessarily about money. Money flows when contributors respond to the message, and they believe that the messenger can win; and that just wasn't happening. |
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| A symbolic candidacy? | |||||||||||
 GWEN
IFILL: But the money gap, Paul, was a huge one; there was -- she said
it was something like 80-1 for her to catch up; that was true. But was
her candidacy symbolic, or was it about substance?
PAUL GIGOT: Well, I think she stressed the symbolism too much. Identity politics in this country is important. GWEN IFILL: Did she stress it, or did we? PAUL GIGOT: I think she stressed it. When I saw her on the stump, I saw her make a lot of the fact that you can make history. That was her theme. In Iowa, that was her theme. In fact, I kept looking for other themes, and there weren't a lot there. You know, I think that's what she stressed too much. In the Republican Party -- I mean, Jack Kennedy ran and won as the first Catholic, but he first had to persuade people that he was presidential caliber, that he had something else he wanted to do, then people would say, "Oh, well, I like the fact that he's a Catholic, too." Elizabeth Dole stressed the fact that she was a woman so much, that I think a lot of people were saying, "Well, what are you going to do as president? Where are you going to lead the country?" GWEN IFILL: Elizabeth Dole said she was for some gun-control law, she said she was some liberalization at least of the Republican position on abortion. Did that help or hurt her, Mark?
But she did... to follow up on Paul's earlier point, she did have a favorable, unfavorable ratio. There's two measures of any candidate: Do you view the candidate favorably or unfavorably, are you going to vote for that candidate? And the two are sometimes disconnected. Even on days she got out -- in the field poll in California today, she has the highest favorable-to-unfavorable rating of any candidate in both parties, including George W. Bush, but her vote support, which is again coming back to both Elizabeth and Paul's point, you don't have to give people a reason to vote for you. What is the compelling message that says, "Yes, I like her. Now I want to vote for her and work for her." That's what was missing. |
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| Did Bob hurt or help? | |||||||||||
 GWEN
IFILL: Elizabeth, we saw Bob Dole standing on the stage today with his
wife. It was a rare occurrence during her campaign. Did being married
to Bob Dole hurt her or help her?
ELIZABETH ARNOLD: Well, I'd say that her husband didn't necessarily help with the public assessment of her candidacy early on, a very candid assessment of her candidacy and then suggesting that he would contribute to John McCain. It's interesting that the campaign has really been stressing in the last couple of days that it was her husband that was the last person to be convinced that she should step down, and pull out of the race. And I think in large part that's because they wanted to portray him as her most loyal supporter, and he was probably feeling pretty bad about the early start. GWEN IFILL: Why is it that Elizabeth Dole, who started off with such a bang, who came back after the straw poll, and everyone said this was her second chance, why is it that she is dropping out of the race when less well-known candidates, less charismatic candidates, dare we say, are still in it? PAUL GIGOT: Well, some of those people have rationales that are ideological, for example. Steve Forbes is trying to run as the conservative. Gary Bauer is trying to run as the -- GWEN IFILL: With a gazillion dollars. PAUL GIGOT: With a gazillion dollars -- that helps too -- that helps, too. John McCain has a compelling personal story, a war record and so on. He also avoided Iowa, so he hasn't spent a couple of million dollars, spent a lot of his money. He saved it for New Hampshire and South Carolina. Gary Bauer's trying to run at that slot in the Republican primary race for the anti-abortion candidate. So they have rationales. She was trying to run as George Bush -- I'm the candidate of everybody who can win, and George Bush just sucked all the oxygen right out of that side of the primary electorate. |
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| A possible vice presidential candidate? | |||||||||||
 GWEN
IFILL: Can you conceive of another Bush-Dole ticket? Is it possible she
could be considered at this point for vice president, Mark?
MARK SHIELDS: I don't think she was hurt by her experience. I mean her favorable-unfavorable ratings are exceptionally high. I think there are doubts about her political skills, her ability to take a punch, all of those questions that come up in a vice presidential choice. It was fascinating today to watch the other candidates when she did get out and how they ... you always view someone, a candidate getting out of the race through that candidate supporters' and admirers' eyes. And George W. Bush was fulsome in his praise of her, I mean more than generous, as was John McCain. The Forbes campaign stumbled. The Forbes campaign treated it as a political opportunity, "Well, this gives us a better chance because of" -- they didn't even wait for the body to get cold. GWEN IFILL: John McCain did say that this was a dearth of ideas, not money, in his response. MARK SHIELDS: He said - I thought he said he would have been preferred that it be the rejection of ideas, rather than the failure - GWEN IFILL: Rejection of her ideas. MARK SHIELDS: That she lost because of her ideas rather than money. GWEN IFILL: Elizabeth, what's your sense about the vice president question?
GWEN IFILL: Paul, who benefits, any of the people who are left standing besides George Bush, say?
GWEN IFILL: You think so? MARK SHIELDS: McCain and his people were apprehensive that she would catch fire in Iowa because they've stopped ... they're out of Iowa -- they were fearful that she would come out of Iowa, Mrs. Dole, as the challenger, as the upstart, as the underdog with all the media attention. But I don't... I guess I take exception to Elizabeth, those people in the black, short dresses you mentioned with the pearls and whatever else, I think it makes it a lot more sense for the Republican Party to nominate a woman on the ticket than it does for the Democrats -- I mean because if you're going to close that gender gap, which has dogged the Republican Party, a woman on the ticket has to help. GWEN IFILL: Final word, Elizabeth. ELIZABETH ARNOLD: Final word: I'd say that I talked to a number of people at her rallies and her fund-raisers, and generally they're weighing the decision between Bush and Dole, so I'd say most of her following goes over to George W. Bush. GWEN IFILL: Thank you. Shields, Gigot and Arnold, thanks for coming by. |
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MARK
SHIELDS: Well, she said it was the money, and money certainly was a
factor, but it was a reflection. I mean, this is a unique year; she's
absolutely right. The dilemma is this: Everybody is for George Bush.
Why is everybody for George Bush -- because he can win. Why can he win
-- because everybody's for George Bush. I mean, that's the circular
argument that all the other candidates -- she's not the first person
out of this race. I mean, we have a governor of Tennessee and former
cabinet officer leave, chairman of the Budget Committee, of the House
of Representatives, an energetic and charismatic fellow leave; we had
the former vice president of the United States, a two-time U.S. senator
leave. I mean, this is a phenomenal year, and I don't think there's
any question that what she spoke today was the truth. I don't think
that Elizabeth Dole ever developed a message that was salient to voters.
PAUL
GIGOT: I think so. I mean, in some ways I think she ran the most disappointing
campaign of any -- of any of the candidates so far. She started with
so much enthusiasm, the novelty factor, the first woman -- a lot of
people wanted to go out and hear her. But when she left the Red Cross
earlier this year, she left without a plan. She left without a staff;
she left without an agenda really for what she was going to do. And
she had to build all those; she had several false starts. She got rid
of one campaign manager. And, as Mark says, she never developed a real
rationale for running, other than, I'm the first woman candidate; let's
make history. And you have to have something other than your résumé
to run on. She never found that.
ELIZABETH
ARNOLD: Well, it's interesting. You know, she said she made the decision
flying home from Seattle, where she spoke to the National Federation
of Republican Women, Gwen, and the average age of that group is about
50. And these women don't get involved in politics until after they've
raised their families. When I went to her events, the people that showed
up that I was most interested in were these young, single professional
women, short black dresses, people you never see at these events, and
they looked really out of place at Republican functions, and I'd ask
them, you know, what are you doing here, are you a registered Republican
-- no, never voted before. What are you doing here? Well, I'm interested
in this woman; she's a woman; she's running for president, so there
was that phenomenon. 
MARK
SHIELDS: I think the only time she made any news, quite frankly, was
in May in New Hampshire and she was booed for her gun control position.
And there's two things you have to remember here, Gwen, about Elizabeth
Dole: First of all, she had never run for office before. She had been
encouraged to run, people said in '96, gee, if you had run, Elizabeth
instead of Bob, you know, he's -- he's sort of solemn, he's not much
fun, you are -- and it's a lot tougher. And the presidency is not an
entry-level position in American politics. The only person that that's
been an exception to, quite frankly, was Dwight David Eisenhower, one
of two individuals in a thousand years to lead a successful cross-channel
invasion. I mean, that's a fairly unique credential. And so I think
that's the thing. 
ELIZABETH
ARNOLD: Well, you know, I'd agree with the point that Paul made and
that is that - and I talked to a number of women who study women politicians
today who said, you know, what was there that was identifiable about
Elizabeth Dole, except for the fact that she's a woman? When you think
John McCain, you think campaign finance reform. I would argue that I
don't think she has helped her vice presidential chances. She didn't
prove that she could move large numbers of voters. She argues that she
could attract crossover Democratic voters, Democratic women, but that
goes against historical fact as well because generally women will pick,
if they do vote as a block, women will pick the Democratic man over
the Republican woman, they'll vote party over gender. 
PAUL
GIGOT: I think John McCain probably benefits the most. They appeal to
similar parts of the Republican electorate, moderate, liberal Republicans.
And if you haven't been ... if you're not for George Bush already, say,
in New Hampshire, you're probably looking for somebody else. So I don't
know that you're going to necessarily go to him. You're probably looking
... and John McCain looks like somebody who might be the alternative.
Now, the Forbes campaign argues that it helps them in Iowa because John
McCain isn't running in Iowa, so they get some of those votes and maybe
that's true. 
