|
 |
|
 |
 |
| TAKING OFF THE GLOVES | |
 December 14, 1999  |
|
|
In a GOP presidential debate last night in Iowa, front runners Gov. George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain challenged each other on campaign finance reform and taxes. NewsHour regulars Mark Shields and Paul Gigot analyze the debate.
|
|
GWEN IFILL: Now, analysis of last night's debate from Shields and Gigot. That's syndicated columnist Mark Shields and Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot, both on the campaign trail tonight checking in from Iowa and in South Carolina. |
|||||||||||||||||||
| George W. Bush improves, engages McCain | ||||||||||||||||||||
|
So, gentlemen, we've been longing for an engaged debate. Did we finally get it last night? Mark.
GWEN IFILL: Paul, what do you think? Are they finally in it? PAUL GIGOT: Oh, he sure wins the most improved player award. No question about that. He had to do two things, I think. And he did pretty close on both of them. One was show more command, to engage more, to show more comfort, a greater comfort level. I didn't notice much of that famous smirk. He had a sober kind of demeanor. And he did that well, I think even McCain people -- I was covering John McCain down here, they can see that he improved his performance notably. The other thing he had to do was, I think, show some contrast with John McCain on some issues. He tried to do that on taxes. And he tried to do that on campaign finance reform. GWEN IFILL: Much abuzz about John McCain, Paul. Do you think that he fared best perhaps aside from George W. Bush who obviously had the most to prove?
GWEN IFILL: Mark, the Des Moines Register newspaper notes today that John McCain hasn't been in the state since April and that he only spent 12 hours there yesterday. Is there any chance at all that he can score at all in this - in the Iowa caucuses come next month? MARK SHIELDS: Well, he's running a very risky strategy, Gwen, and that is to ignore Iowa, which has historically been the first and coupled with New Hampshire the most important primaries and caucus states in the nation. He's going to leap frog that into New Hampshire - and Paul's right -- what did he last night was to repeal to voters in New Hampshire and beyond, but the last poll here showed that he had jump to third place behind George Bush, who has a big and comfortable lead here -- unlike his precarious position in New Hampshire in recent surveys -- and behind Steve Forbes, who I don't think had a good night last night, and I think he needed one badly. But as far as McCain was concerned, he did something I've only seen done - this is the third time in 32 years. Robert Kennedy did it in 1968, at the Indiana University Medical School when pushed by medical students, who is going to pay for this great society of yours as a presidential candidate he said, "you are." And Fritz Hollings, the Senator from South Carolina, when he ran for President in 1984, went before the American Association of Retired Persons and called for a freeze on the cost of living increase of the Social Security recipients in the interest of their grandchildren. It really is - I have to say -
MARK SHIELDS: That's right. I know it. And Robert Kennedy didn't win either. But I would just point out it is so novel that it's refreshing. GWEN IFILL: George W. Bush had planned, Paul, to stay above the fray. At least that's what he seemed to be doing in the previous debates. Now he seems to have abandoned that. Is that a good idea? PAUL GIGOT: Well, I think he had to, Gwen. I mean, he wanted to try
to avoid making a mistake, to avoid engaging other people on the level
where he could make a mistake. But the truth is he made a bigger one,
which is he seemed aloof and too programmed in the first two debates.
And what he had to do was come in and say, look, I'm in a fight here.
I've got to mix it up, and I've got to show that I have some command
over the issues and John McCain is giving him a run for his money in
New Hampshire, certainly, but they have to worry about beyond down here,
so he had to go after McCain say, let's contrast on taxes. |
 |
|||||||||||||||||||
| Forbes disappoints | ||||||||||||||||||||
|
GWEN IFILL: When we talk about Steve Forbes the fact that he may not have fared in the debate as he had to in some -- in your eyes, I think. What exactly -- we know that the Iowa Caucus benefits some credible organization. Do we actually think that John McCain has that? That's to you, Mark. MARK SHIELDS: I don't think John McCain has anything on the ground here in Iowa. They have no campaign; they have no phone number. You know, I think what he was hoping is that people saw him, were impressed by the fact that he dared to speak truth to conventional wisdom and power in this stage certainly on the ethanol question; that he seemed different; that he had Governor Bush making the argument, campaign finance reform not on the basis of the First Amendment, but it was going to hurt Republicans. That was sort of a self-interest argument. And I think that maybe he appeals differently, if he if he finishes third, or were to, then the McCain people can claim this is a great victory he's only been in the state for 12 hours all year long. And I think that is it. But there's no question the Forbes organization is impressive, he's been getting very good crowds. That's why last night's performance was probably disappointing to his people. He's been getting very good crowds and enthusiastic crowds in his personal appearances here.
MARK SHIELDS: You know, I really don't know. I mean there's not a Keyes organization of any magnitude or -- that impresses one that gives a sense that there's some super structure or some structure underneath that campaign. He is always a compelling personal figure. And people walked out of the room saying, gee, I was impressed with a couple of people last night I talked to said they had gone in as Bush people, came out saying that they were inspired by Alan Keyes. I don't know where they go with their inspiration and how long it lasts. GWEN IFILL: Paul, I gather you're back with us. Welcome back. PAUL GIGOT: I'm back. GWEN IFILL: Let me ask you a little about religious references in last night's debate. There seemed to be much more emphasis on actually mentioning the two words, Jesus Christ, by at least three of the candidates when asked about - you know -- the greatest philosopher, thinker. That's unusual. We wouldn't have seen that some years ago.
|
 |
|||||||||||||||||||
| A two-man race? | ||||||||||||||||||||
|
GWEN IFILL: Well, it was three debates in eleven days, I gather these candidates take a little break now until after the holidays. What do you expect to happen in the next big debate, Paul? PAUL GIGOT: Well, I don't know, I think it will be more of the same. I think you'll see the candidates as they go into even more of these, get even more comfortable and mix it up more. But I think the attention is going to focus more and more on the McCain/Bush exchange, because it's clear right now they both are emerging as having -- being well ahead of the others in the pack. And more and more they're going to have to contrast with one another and without appearing to be mean, go after one another. GWEN IFILL: Mark, do you think that that's true, a two-man race for all intents and purposes?
PAUL GIGOT: I disagree with that in this one sense, Mark. I think he has to be within five points or less, even maybe closer. Forbes has all of his marbles bet on Iowa. GWEN IFILL: Okay. Thank you very much. Paul Gigot and Mark Shields, you guys travel safe. |
||||||||||||||||||||
MARK
SHIELDS: I think so, Gwen. I don't think there's any question it was
a lot more engaged, a lot more animated, George W. Bush, front runner,
than we had seen in the first two events. Almost audible on the seismograph
at Georgetown University was the sigh of relief among his supporters
because they were mindful of -- and admitted afterwards and some even
before -- of his lackluster performance in the first two debates and
the doubts that there were being expressed not within the campaign,
but among those supporting him. 
PAUL
GIGOT: Well, I don't know if he fared best. I thought he did well, though.
I mean, there's no question that he -- he's been doing well on all of
these debates. And he showed the same command on foreign policy that
he showed in all of the debates. And the one thing he did was appeal
to independent voters, not in Iowa, where he's not running, but in New
Hampshire with that ethanol answer -- going right at the ethanol subsidy.
And it fits in with the persona he's trying to project in this campaign
which is he's the independent guy, he's the outsider, he's the anti-Clinton,
and in a Republican primary, running as a truth teller, running as somebody
who they can look up to is really helping him.
GWEN
IFILL: Yes, Mark. But one forgets that Fritz Hollings ran for president.
And
I think that was smart on his part. My tax plan is better than yours,
he was essentially saying. And he was appealing to women, that working
single mother; John McCain doesn't do as well right now in the internals
of polls with women. So, that was part of the strategy too. I think
it was smart on Bush's part. 
GWEN
IFILL: Mark, it's just you and me for now, because we've lost the satellite
signal from Paul in South Carolina, so I'm going to ask you about Alan
Keyes. Last night at that debate he always seems to win the applause-o-meter,
and he wins the Internet polls, dubious as they may be. Exactly what
-- can he stand to have any impact on this race? 
PAUL
GIGOT: No. It was unusual. And I think there's no question that the
case of Governor Bush, while sincere, it was also a bit of calculation
there. There's no question that he is trying to appeal to religious
conservatives in Iowa, who are big component of the -- of the caucus
electorate there and to try to minimize Steve Forbes and Gary Bauer's
appeal to those voters. So, while sincere, I'm sure it was also something
he thought out in advance. 
MARK
SHIELDS: I had one of the smartest politicians I know say that the next
president's one of four people: Bill Bradley, Al Gore, George Bush,
and John McCain. And I don't see evidence to quarrel with that. Now,
Iowa surprised us a number of times, if Steve Forbes would have finished
- and his people are very candid about this, Gwen. He has to finish
within ten points of George W. Bush here in Iowa. If he were to do that,
and say it was six, seven points behind, then he would get a big bump
coming out of here going into New Hampshire with the Manchester Union
leader editorial -- that maybe you scramble the Republican race there.
But I have to say, right now that I think it is a Forbes -- I think
it is a McCain/Bush race on the Republican side. 
