POST-AMES ANALYSIS

August 16, 1999
		As a result of the Iowa straw poll, Lamar Alexander becomes the first Republican presidential candidate to drop out of the race. After a background report, Washington Post reporters Dan Balz and Kevin Merida assess the weekend's winners and losers.

The Online NewsHour's Iowa Straw Poll index. Special Emphasis: What are the topics America's leaders need to address? Online Forum: What issues do you think should shape election 2000? The Online NewsHour looks at the history of the Iowa straw poll. Aug. 13, 1999: A look at preparations for the Iowa straw poll. Aug. 13, 1999: Gigot and Oliphant discuss the Iowa straw poll. Aug. 10, 1999: NewsHour essayists discuss election 2000. Aug. 6, 1999: A look at how other Republican candidates are weathering the media storm over George W. Bush. Aug. 6, 1999: Four police chiefs discuss election 2000. July 29, 1999: Weekly newspaper editors look at the 2000 election. July 23, 1999: Another look at viewer e-mail about election 2000. July 13, 1999: Former White House science advisors discuss election issues. July 9, 1999: NewsHour viewers' e-mail on election 2000. July 6, 1999: "Genius Grant" winners discuss their views on the upcoming elections. June 29, 1999: Regional editorial page editors discuss the election. June 28, 1999: Four lawyers look at the election's impact on the Supreme Court. June 24, 1999: Historians reflect on the needed debates. June 17, 1999: Vice President Gore kicks off his presidential campaign. June 14, 1999: The media phenomenon surrounding George W. Bush. March 5, 1999: Shields and Gigot on the 2000 presidential candidates. Browse the NewsHour's coverage of the media and the White House.	MARGARET WARNER: They came by the busload to Ames on Saturday -- 25,000 Iowans, mostly Republicans -- drawn by the beautiful weather and, perhaps, the chance to help shape the 2000 presidential race. Inside huge hospitality tents provided by the candidates, they found barbeque to suit everyone's taste -- and plenty of down-home entertainment. As expected, Texas Gov. George Bush and millionaire publisher Steve Forbes -- who had spent the most on the campaign -- offered the most lavish extras. The prize for most extravagant went to Forbes, who provided his guests with an air-conditioned tent -- and a plastic playland for their kids.
	Going to the poll
	BAUER WORKER: Here's your tickets to vote. MARGARET WARNER: But the campaigns also took care of the serious business at hand. New arrivals were registered, tagged, given $25 voting tickets, and instructions. . WORKER: You can vote anytime from now until 8:15 over in the open coliseum. PATRICK BUCHANAN: That's what we're going to tell them in that hall, so come on in. MARGARET WARNER: And the candidates led on-stage pep rallies to remind their supporters why they were there. GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: We're getting ready for music time (cheers) but I want to remind you it's voting time as well. MARGARET WARNER: The voting process wasn't easy, thanks to special security measures adopted to prevent cheating. Voters had to show their Iowa driver's licenses, get stamped with indelible ink, mark their ballots, and feed them into automatic scanners. The process wasn't quick either. The waiting time to vote was more than an hour at some stations -- 90 minutes at others. And organizers had to control the flow into the coliseum. WORKER: The building will open again once there's some room on the concourse. The concourse is too crowded right now. MARGARET WARNER: Then came the moment the media and at least some in the crowd had been waiting for -- the first chance to see 9 of the 10 Republican hopefuls sharing the same stage. Their 10-minute speeches had one thing in common -- harsh criticism of President Clinton. PATRICK BUCHANAN: When I raise my hand to take the oath of office, I'm the chief law enforcement officer of the United States, aren't I? If I'm the chief law enforcement officer of the United States, I guess the first thing I'd have to do is turn to Bill Clinton and say, "Sir, you have a right to remain silent." (big cheer) GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: And when I put my hand on the Bible, I will swear to not only uphold the laws of the land, I will swear to uphold the honor and the dignity of the office to which I have been elected, so help me God. (cheers)
	Taking shots at the frontrunner
	MARGARET WARNER: But there were also plenty of potshots at Bush for being anointed as front-runner by pollsters, pundits and fundraisers. DAN QUAYLE: The Washington establishment, they want to control this election. They want to tell you who to vote for. They say that money will determine who our nominee is going to be. I say let's send them a message. LAMAR ALEXANDER: We need a contest because this is not a horse race; it's not a football game. This is the biggest job in the world. And we don't dare send an untested person into a debate with Albert Gore. (applause/cheers) MARGARET WARNER: Bush gave a brief, indirect response. GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: I'm under no illusions. I know it is a huge step, going from governor of Texas to President of the United States. But I've had some pretty good training. If Texas were a nation, it would be the 11th largest economy in the world. MARGARET WARNER: The crowds had long since dispersed when the results came in -- announced like beauty contest winners, in reverse order. The top finishers were: Bush, with 31percent; followed by Forbes and Elizabeth Dole. Next came Gary Bauer, Pat Buchanan, and Lamar Alexander, who had invested the most time in Iowa. And in the bottom tier: Alan Keyes; Dan Quayle; and Orrin Hatch. Outside, in his tent, Bush thanked his supporters. GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: I know this is just the beginning. I've got a lot of work to do. (cheers) But the victory today in Iowa put me on the road to earning the nomination of the Republican Party. (cheers) MARGARET WARNER: Back in the coliseum, other candidates who were pleased with the results, showed up to talk to reporters. Forbes declared himself "the" alternative to Bush. STEVE FORBES: Two thirds of the voters did not vote for him. They thought they were going to do better. The establishment vote has now been split. I think the choice is very clear right now. MARGARET WARNER: Bauer said his fourth place showing made him "the" candidate of religious conservatives. GARY BAUER: I certainly think that the social conservative vote is coalescing around me. And I think it inevitably means that some other conservative candidates are going to drop out of the race. MARGARET WARNER: Appearing on NBC's "Meet the Press" the next morning, Dole was upbeat. ELIZABETH DOLE: Well, it was a wonderful victory for me, no question, Tim, because, you know, when you end up in the top three in a strong, solid position such as that, when others outspent you by millions of dollars, I think that's a real good showing. MARGARET WARNER: Two other candidates, who didn't do as well, said they too would press on. PATRICK BUCHANAN: We survived and came out fine, Tim. We came in fifth place. I wish we'd been one or two places higher, but we're going forward. CNN INTERVIEWER: Do you still believe that you did well enough to be a part of it, and that there's no consideration, in your mind, to dropping out? DAN QUAYLE: Oh, absolutely not. I am the only one that can put together the Reagan coalition and be able to win in November 2000. MARGARET WARNER: But Alexander reached a different conclusion for reasons he explained this afternoon. LAMAR ALEXANDER: As much as my heart tells me I'd like to go on, I realistically can't do it. And the primary reason is, is money…Not to be invited to appear on major television shows, to constantly be - to be pictured as not capable of winning long before there's a chance to prevent your views, that makes it more difficult. And it makes it impossible to raise money.

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