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| BEHIND THE STRAW POLL | |
 August 13, 1999 
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Why has a folksy political fundraiser become such a big deal to presidential candidates?
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According to William Safire's New Political Dictionary, the term straw poll comes from writer John Seldon (1584-1654), who said "take a straw and throw it up into the air - you may see by that which way the wind is. More solid things do not show the complexion of the times so well…" Political straw polls, like the one in Iowa this weekend, have helped candidates kick start campaigns while spelling doom for others. For example 1975 straw polls indicated that a little-known former governor, Jimmy Carter of Georgia, had a much more significant campaign than first believed. But other candidates have run into trouble in Iowa. In 1987, the statewide straw poll chose Christian broadcaster Pat Robertson, over then-Vice President George Bush. Bush went on to lose the 1988 Republican caucus to Robertson. |
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| Why Iowa? | |||||||||||
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Why Iowa? Iowa's population is 97 percent white, no city has a population exceeding 200,000. It has the highest school test scores in the country, and it has the fewest residents under the age of 18 - just over 25 percent. Analysts say the state is a quirky test of a candidate's appeal to basic, middle-American values. Although organizers admit the poll is unscientific, they contend it often measures the strength of the campaign organization. "It is a huge benchmark test which has become considerably more important, because as the process becomes compacted there are fewer real milestones along the way," Kayne Robinson, chairman of the Iowa GOP, told reporters. "This event will be a fantastic test as it has been in the past of who has a good organization. How can you get people on that hot August day to go to Ames at a time certain and be in this huge extravaganza and stand up for you? That is an important test." |
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| All about money | |||||||||||
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The event originated as a money-making venture by the state GOP. Mark Miller, who was the state party finance director in 1987 said "The Iowa straw poll was devised as a fund-raising gimmick for the state party and nothing more than that." It costs $25 to vote, which means that the party will raise $375,000 if the expected 15,000 people show up. The one sure-fire winner Saturday will be Ames itself. The Chamber of Commerce is hoping the event will pour more than $3 million into the local economy. The 11,006 hotel rooms in Ames are all booked. Candidates are spending record amounts on food, entertainment and transportation. The flow of cash began with a bidding war for the prime tent space-right outside the Hilton coliseum on the campus of Iowa State University. The Bush campaign paid $43,500 to rent 60,000 square-feet of grass for his party. Lamar Alexander paid $4,300 for the spot one next door. Des Moines Register reporter David Yepsen said the Forbes and Bush camps will spend around $2 million each on Saturday's event. Bush has hired 100 luxury buses to carry voters to Ames and a battle of the bands is heating up. Lamar Alexander is hosting singer Crystal Gayle. Debby Boone, Ronnie Milsap and Beverly Ellis are playing the Forbes tent. Tracy Byrd is joining the Bush party, which also boasts "Celebrity Friends of George W. Bush" such as a world champion bass fisherman and an Olympic gold medalist skeet shooter. |
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| Keeping it local | |||||||||||
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This year's event is different from years past in another key aspect: an Iowan-only rule. "The 1995 straw poll … was an example of how mock elections can be controversial," Yepsen wrote this week in the Des Moines Register. "In 1995, several campaigns bussed in out-of-state supporters to vote for their candidate." In hopes of adding legitimacy to this year's contest the organizers promised to check for proof of residence before allowing people to cast their ballot. "It was our objective to ensure that the process had credibility and that it was very closely linked to what the results are liable to be in the caucuses on February 7th and so we felt limiting it to Iowans would add to the credibility of the event," Robinson explained. As Ames stands ready for the onslaught of GOP faithful, political analysts wait to see who will come out of the straw poll with increased momentum and whose presidential ambitions may not make it through the weekend. |
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