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CROWDING THE FIELD
JULY 12, 1996
TRANSCRIPT
Charlayne Hunter-Gault is joined by two pollsters to look at what the likely effect of third parties like Reform and the Libertarians will have on the November elections.
MR. LEHRER: We go first to presidential politics and to Charlayne Hunter-Gault. MS. HUNTER-GAULT: The presidential campaign trail got a little more crowded this week. On Wednesday, Dick Lamm, the former Democratic governor of Colorado, announced he was running for the nomination of the Reform Party.
DICK LAMM, Reform Party Presidential Candidate: (Wednesday - Denver) I begin this campaign with only one promise, and that's to present the truth, and in some cases, the hard truth, and to trust you to make the right choices. What America needs, in short, is a "no B.S." agenda. The Reform Party is the one and only place I believe that you will get that. Now, political pundits have speculated and will continue to speculate about whether my candidacy will help or hurt a political candidate or party. I am less concerned about that than whether it will help our nation.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: But Ross Perot, who has bankrolled the Reform Party, soon made it clear that he wanted the top spot.
LARRY KING: (Larry King Live - Wednesday Night) If you get the job, will you run? Obviously, you will run.
ROSS PEROT: Certainly I will. And I think that's obvious to anybody when you look at this is all I have done for the last five years, and the only reason I'd do it is because I love this country and I love the principles that it's founded on. I don't like to see those principles violated, and I particularly have a deep affection and love for the American people.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Lamm was undaunted. Yesterday in Minnesota, he vowed to continue his campaign despite Perot.
REPORTER: Did Ross Perot's announcement last night change your--
DICK LAMM: It didn't change my mind.
REPORTER: Not in any way?
DICK LAMM: No. I had to decide 10 days ago that I was going to run regardless, and so, umm, welcome into the race, and we'll just have to both try to present our stuff to the Reform Party.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Now, two pollsters on the impact third party candidates will have on the 1996 elections; Democrat Peter Hart and Republican Linda Divall, a consultant to the Dole campaign. Thank you both for joining us. Starting with you, Linda, what are the polls telling us about how the public is feeling about a third party right now?
LINDA DIVALL, Republican Pollster: Well, there is support for a third party candidacy, and there has been since, basically since 1984, but this environment of anti-incumbency and anti-political environment, in particular, we find that there is support for a third party, but not necessarily, I think, for Ross Perot in the manner that there was in 1992. And I say that because voters are very familiar with Mr. Perot. His negative is much higher than it was before. Umm, on the other hand, both Peter and I show that he's still getting about 12 to 13 percent of the vote. What was interesting is when you look at the Perot vote in 1992, he only gets about half of those who voted for him last time around. He has some new voters coming into the process, younger men and independents. And the question is are they going to support a Reform Party where they're not really certain what his agenda is? Because what appears to be happening here is that Mr. Perot has reacted totally on the basis of Mr. Lamm's entry into this race, and it appears to be very egocentric, as opposed to issue-oriented or crusade-oriented.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Peter Hart, what do your polls show? And are they reacting to this thing yet, the Perot-Lamm thing?
PETER HART, Democratic Pollster: Well, I think this is much too early to look at the Lamm entry or whatever, but what they show is exactly what Linda sees, and that is they look and they say, hey, Ross Perot is gadfly. In 1992, he was a shrewd businessman, he was somebody, two to one positive back in 1992, today it's two to one negative feelings towards, towards Ross Perot. So he's a very different candidate today than he was in 1992. And I agree with Linda. It is a new constituency. It's coming out of the West more. Yes, it's coming out of younger people, and almost two out of all five of all of Perot's voters are independent, so there it is, new and different.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Well, Gordon Black, who advises Perot and who at one time polled for him, argues that this has always happened with him, that the negatives first and the low percentages and then as he comes on, they get higher, and also he argues that the alienation factor is so much higher now that it ultimately will transfer to him.
MS. DIVALL: Well, I think Peter and I would probably both disagree with that. I mean, Mr. Perot starts with such higher negatives firmly in place. People did see him in terms of the way he waged his campaign in 1992 and some of the scenarios that he fabricated or created in his own mind simply didn't hold any water with voters. Yes, alienation and skepticism towards politics is still high, but that, I think, adds even further, adds a further problem to Mr. Perot's candidacy, because they want to see somebody who can tackle the system and get things done, and the biggest problem that Mr. Perot faces and any third party candidate for that matter is how can he be effective if you can't work with both members of Congress and get something accomplished.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: But just what about the sentiment in general? I mean, will it make a difference, let's say for the sake of argument, if it isn't Perot and it is Lamm? I mean, that might be quite a stretch.
MS. DIVALL: Well, we'd like to see--Republicans would like to see Lamm and not Perot, and I'm sure Peter and the Democrats would say just the opposite.
MR. HART: Well, I think Dick Lamm is probably like the backup shortstop to Cal Ripken. It's unlikely to get into the line up at least for a while.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: So that the feeling for a third party isn't that strong yet. I mean, does it identify with just the alienation, or would it identify with an individual, a strong individual?
MR. HART: Well, they're going to identify with an individual, but the other side is, yes, there is enough alienation out there that I would say that you could look at anywhere between six and ten percent for a candidate, third party candidate, from the Reform Movement. Why? Because people want to see things different, and I would say there are a lot of independents, especially younger people who would vote this way.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Is there something about these times that's different from say previous times that's pushing this?
MS. DIVALL: I think what voters have seen in particular over the last four years, and in particular in ‘92 with the election of a new younger President in Bill Clinton, and then a new Republican majority in both the Senate and the House, is they were eager to see some fundamental change in the political system. And for the most part, they are still seeing political gridlock. They are still seeing the parties fight with each other. They're still seeing a lack of political civility. They're still seeing a lack of campaign finance reform, and so that just kind of feeds this, this distrust of the system and, and their disillusionment that change can't happen fast enough.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Are these people a homogenous group, or are they, you know, unified? In other words, could they be a force?
MR. HART: Oh, I don't think that they're unified. I mean, I think there are a lot of different people just coming to this, and as I said, they're younger, they're independent, and we know that, but I don't think that they have a particular agenda. We do know that economically these people are more dissatisfied, and I guess if I could turn it back--
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: You mean, they're more dissatisfied with--
MR. HART: About--
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: --the economy about--
MR. HART: With their own economic situation, and with the economy in general. And if I were to take it a step further, I mean, these people may change the arithmetic, but they're not going to change the overall race results. And I think that's an important difference.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Is that what your data show?
MS. DIVALL: I would agree with that, but I would add something else. If Ross Perot were serious about developing a legitimate third party in the United States to run for the Presidency, the Reform Party. He would probably step aside and find a candidate to fill that vehicle to make certain that by the year 2000, as we enter the millennium, that there is, indeed, an established party with established principles, and a cause or crusade that's, that's aligned with that party. Right now, the Reform Party doesn't mean anything, except that it's a vacuum for Ross Perot to fill, as opposed to it standing for some issues and principles that the Reform Party members and the rest of America want to call us behind.
MR. HART: I--
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Of course, again, I'm sorry--you were going to say--
MR. HART: I don't think that's what we're going to see happen. I think Larry King and the appearance by Ross Perot on that told us exactly that he has his own agenda, and his agenda includes himself, and we'll see where everybody else stands.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: But, of course, again, Gordon Black, who's not here to speak for himself, but he, he does argue that this mood, this move towards a third party has been building, you know, for 20 years, and that it is getting more and more solid, and it almost doesn't matter who the candidate is.
MS. DIVALL: I don't think that's quite correct. I mean, John B. Anderson started, you know--actually, George Wallace and John B. Anderson in 1980 tried to accelerate that third party movement, but I think Peter and I almost always see the desire for a third party be at about 30 to 35 percent, but you rarely see a specific candidate be able to match that desire. So that suggests to me that either the personality or the individual is unable to capitalize on that movement and really articulate what those disenchanted and alienated voters want to see. They always fall short somehow of the actual movement that is in place for them to take advantage of and to ride.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Let's say if the Reform Party goes forward with a candidate, be it Perot or Lamm, well, let's say that it's Perot. I think the smart money is there, but who knows. What impact is that going to have on the two top contenders having a candidate from the Reform Party?
MR. HART: I think there are several things. First of all, it changes the dynamic of the race. Obviously, it goes from a two-person race to a three-person race, and that changes things. It changes in terms of electoral votes. I think the state of Texas becomes more open for the Clinton campaign, which might not happen in a two-person race, and I think the state of New Jersey, for example, becomes more open to the Dole campaign. Why? Because Perot will be taking from different segments of the electorate, uh, in each of those states. And obviously it changes the dialogue and what goes on and what happens. So in an awful lot of ways, it changes things, but in the end, I think it makes Bob Dole's ascent much harder because people that Bob Dole needs to win are people who Ross Perot is going to take. And I think that becomes the ultimate outcome.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: You mean, these, this younger crowd that you see and--
MR. HART: But also it's people that basically say I'm not totally happy with Bill Clinton, I'm willing to look for an alternative, and these were people who in the congressional races are voting for Republicans and supporting them, and also like the Republicans more than the Democrats.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: How, do you see it, Linda, differently?
MS. DIVALL: Yes and no. I think there's an opportunity for Sen. Dole here in that voters are still not familiar with his record. He's got the convention coming up. He has an opportunity to portray his record to the American public, and it's quite clear to me that once some clear issues are laid down in contrast, with President Clinton, that he has an opportunity to get the vote of some of those disenchanted people. One of the things that's interesting to look at with Ross Perot is that when you look at it, should you reelect--should we as a country reelect Bill Clinton, or is it time for a new person, about 46 percent of the country say it's time for a new person, and Ross Perot right now gets about 20 percent of that vote, so he is able to take a lot of that anti-incumbent vote and that translates to about 8 percent of the national vote, which is a significant force. Now, if Bob Dole can demonstrate to the voters that he has a serious plan for deficit reduction, that he wants to take the country in a fundamentally different direction from where Bill Clinton is taking it, that he has concerns for welfare reform and a solid tax plan in line, then I think he can show an affinity with those Perot voters who, indeed, voted Republican at a 2/3 margin in 1994, and get them to switch over to Bob Dole. So I think there's an opportunity and obviously a challenge inherent in his candidacy.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Okay. You said earlier that you didn't think that, that a third party had a chance of winning this time around. But what does it have a chance of doing? Does it have a chance of having any kind of impact? And remember, there are some other third party candidates too, Ralph Nader with the Green Party and Mr. Browne with the, umm, Libertarians.
MR. HART: Well, I think the one thing it may do is it may change things on the congressional level, i.e., it's going to bring out people that may help the Republicans, also may give them an opportunity in the congressional races that they might not see otherwise, so, it's not only going to have an impact at the top of the ticket but maybe at the bottom of the ticket.
MS. DIVALL: I think organizationally the most significant finding is the fact that they'll get $33 million to broadcast, and they'll be a legitimate third party candidate on into the future.
MS. HUNTER-GAULT: All Right. We have to leave it there. Thank you.
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