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| SAMUEL BERGER | |
 March 26, 1999 
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National Security Adviser Samuel Berger discusses day three of the strikes against Yugoslavia with Jim Lehrer.
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JIM LEHRER: And that brings us to tonight and to National Security Adviser Samuel Berger. Mr. Berger, welcome. SAMUEL BERGER: Good evening. |
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Serb's air defenses. |
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SAMUEL BERGER: That's correct. JIM LEHRER: And they began this morning with the first-time daylight raids and now they've been continued into the night? SAMUEL BERGER: The raids are continuing as we speak. JIM LEHRER: And are they similar to the first two? Are they aimed at air defense -- the air defense systems in Serbia, the same kind of targets? SAMUEL BERGER: Well, as you can imagine, Jim, I'm not going to talk a great deal bout targets and operational details. Essentially, we are targeting not only the air defense system and command-and-control system within Serbia and in Kosovo but also the Serbian security forces and the so-called MUP, the police forces of Serbia that have been the instruments of repression in Kosovo. Those are also prime targets. JIM LEHRER: Now, the two MiG's that were shot down today over Bosnia, what can you tell us about what happened? SAMUEL BERGER: I don't think we have a definitive assessment precisely of what caused the MiG's to head in that direction, whether it was hostile intent, whether they were scrambling in the face of fire on the ground. I suspect in the next day or so we'll have a clearer picture. JIM LEHRER: But that's an escalation of the -- or an expansion of the conflict, is it not, if Serb airplanes are going to attack UN forces in Bosnia right next door? SAMUEL BERGER: Clearly, if the intent was to attack American forces, that would be a serious development. JIM LEHRER: But you don't know for a fact that that's the case.
JIM LEHRER: Were the pilots captured? SAMUEL BERGER: I can't confirm that. JIM LEHRER: There are reports that they were captured. SAMUEL BERGER: I know. JIM LEHRER: But that -- you don't know one way or another, is -- SAMUEL BERGER: I'm not going to confirm it one way or the other. JIM LEHRER: Okay. Now, the general in NATO talked again about the sophisticated air defense system that the Serbs have. But they haven't used it yet, have they? SAMUEL BERGER: Well, they have sent their planes up, and many of them have been shot down, their MiG's. There has been some activity on the part of their air defense system. They have not fully engaged it. I think that, in part, is attributable to the success that the NATO forces have had in degrading their air defense system, but I think it's premature to draw any definitive conclusions until the next few days. JIM LEHRER: Well, there has been a suggestion that one of the reasons -- we're talking about basically surface-to-air missiles that would be targeted all on NATO airplanes, and very few of those have been used, that's correct? SAMUEL BERGER: That's correct.
SAMUEL BERGER: Well, I think we have to be prepared for any contingency, but, of course, as the campaign proceeds, this integrated air system becomes less integrated and more degraded, so their capability each night is diminished. That does not mean that they still don't have capability. We have to fly on the assumption, of course, that they still have the capability of sending a SAM missile against us. JIM LEHRER: There is no -- is there concrete evidence that it has been, in fact, been degraded, it has, in fact, been diminished? SAMUEL BERGER: I think we heard, if not in that clip, during other parts of the briefing from NATO today the view that there has been effectiveness against the air defense system, but there continues to be work to be done. |
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| What constitutes success? | ||||||||||||||||||||
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JIM LEHRER: Yes. All right now, another one of the big goals of this bombing mission was to stop the Serb attacks on Kosovars, on ethnic Albanians in Kosovo. Now, those attacks are continuing, are they not?
JIM LEHRER: But the bombing campaign is not specifically directed at those 40,000 Serbian troops, correct? SAMUEL BERGER: The bombing campaign will be -- is directed at a wide range of targets in Serbia and military targets at Kosovo, including Serb army and Serb police capabilities and forces in the region. JIM LEHRER: There was a report, for instance, today -- several reports of new massacres of Kosovo civilians, or Albanian ethnic civilians -- one of them -- 20 Albanian teachers in Kosovo, the ethnic Albanian teachers, were pulled out of their school and shot to death in front of their students. Can you confirm that, or is that just -- SAMUEL BERGER: I cannot confirm the specific report, Jim, but there are a range of these reports, and I think that they are in their cumulative impact sufficient to believe that there are atrocities that continue to be committed against the Kosovars. The effect this has had is, I think, to reinforce the determination of NATO to proceed with the campaign. There was a meeting of the North Atlantic Council this afternoon, and there was a, I think, a great deal of outrage at those reports and a consensus that the campaign needs to be continued.
SAMUEL BERGER: Well, it can't stop individual actions. The bombing campaign was designed for really two purposes: one, either to convince Mr. Milosevic through the human impact of this that the path of peace makes more sense to him than the destruction that he's undergoing. That would be the optimum outcome, for him to choose to embrace -- to stop the fighting and embrace the peace agreement that we laid down in Rambouillet and the Kosovars have embraced -- but, failing that, to inflict sufficient damage on his military capability that he -- his ability to conduct these kinds of campaigns is severely diminished and his calculation in the future will have to include not only the fact that he has a greatly diminished military, that the playing field is different, but that he may have to face again NATO's bombing if he embarks upon his campaign. But you can't do -- we never expected that to happen after two nights of this. JIM LEHRER: Well, there's been a lot of discussion, as you know, Mr. Berger, about what constitutes success, what constitutes the end of this, and one -- is it correct to say -- well, let's go through that, and you tell me -- but if, in fact, the bombing gets Milosevic to stop this -- these kinds of atrocities, alleged atrocities against civilians, in other words, he pulls back militarily but doesn't sign a peace deal, doesn't make -- doesn't sign the agreement that was made in France, is that enough to stop the bombing, alone? SAMUEL BERGER: Well, I think at this stage the answer is no. I think we've said here that there are two possible end states for Mr. Milosevic. One is peace -- stop the fighting, embrace a peace agreement along the lines of the Rambouillet agreement, in that framework. He can do that tomorrow. Barring that, we will continue the bombing until the NATO military people believe that we have inflicted serious damage on his military so that his ability to carry out these kinds of campaigns in the future is severely diminished. JIM LEHRER: But he --
JIM LEHRER: Even larger than what's going on, as we speak. SAMUEL BERGER: Far larger than what's going on, because the techniques of the Serbs has been essentially to go in and burn the village, and chase away the guerrillas. That would have caused refugee flows of major proportions and created the kind of instability in the region that would have led to in all likelihood a larger conflict, so the end state of -- of acting here, even if he does not choose peace, which is to severely diminish his capacity to conduct war, has to be compared to the end state of not having acted which is chaos. |
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| What if Milosevic refuses to sign a peace deal? | ||||||||||||||||||||
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JIM LEHRER: So that's actually what I'm getting at here is that a decision could be made by NATO that -- that the first part of this mission has been accomplished. He hasn't agreed to any peace deal, but all of the things you just went through, the diminishment and inability militarily to do certain things has been accomplished. You all could just say that and that would be the end of the bombing. SAMUEL BERGER: Well, we're not -- this is not dependent upon bombing him back to the peace table. JIM LEHRER: Okay, all right. SAMUEL BERGER: If - obviously peace would be a good outcome here. In the long term it would be a far preferable outcome, but if he digs in and decides that he's not going to -- to move in that direction, then we will reduce his capability to make war in a substantial way, and I have no question in my mind that Kosovo will be better for our having undertaken this action than had NATO walked away.
SAMUEL BERGER: Correct. JIM LEHRER: Have you heard word from Milosevic at all since this began two days ago? SAMUEL BERGER: Not other than the televised - JIM LEHRER: No official thing through channels or whatever? SAMUEL BERGER: Well, there have been some diplomatic conversations with people in the Milosevic government, but as far as I know there's been no direct communication with Milosevic. JIM LEHRER: No -- either through any kind of -- through the Russians, through any source, any indication, hey, let's talk, we - SAMUEL BERGER: Well, I think, for example, the Ukrainian foreign minister, my understanding, is on his way to Belgrade, not exactly a place I'd choose to visit this week, but in any case, presumably to tell Mr. Milosevic to -- that the world here is quite united in demanding that he choose another course, and there have been others, the Russians and others, who have made this message very clear to Mr. Milosevic, but since Ambassador Holbrooke's meeting with Milosevic several days ago in which he showed no flexibility whatsoever, we've had no direct contact with him as far as I know. JIM LEHRER: Yes. And as we speak, there have been no NATO casualties of any kind, correct?
JIM LEHRER: All right. Mr. Berger, thank you very much. SAMUEL BERGER: Thank you, Jim. |
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JIM
LEHRER: And the third wave of attacks is now underway as we speak, correct?
SAMUEL
BERGER: I don't think we know that for certain at this point.
JIM
LEHRER: All right. Now, one of the suggestions is the reason they haven't
been used is that they're waiting for an opportune time and then they're
really going to let one wave of NATO planes have it. Is that -- does
that add up to you?
SAMUEL
BERGER: Yes. These attacks, of course, have been building for the last
several weeks, as the Kosovars, as the Serbs assembled about 40,000
security forces in and around Kosovo. One of the reasons we felt such
a sense of urgency of beginning this campaign is the conviction on the
part of most of our analysts that they were on the verge of launching
a massive offensive with these 40,000 security forces. They have continued
to conduct military action. I don't think we had any expectation that
that would stop after one or two nights. What we have to do here is
conduct a sustained campaign and seek to convince Mr. Milosevic that
the overall cost to him of continuing to make war is not worth the price
that he's paying and the price goes up every night.
JIM
LEHRER: But wasn't the bombing campaign designed to specifically stop
this very thing that is continuing?
SAMUEL
BERGER: Let me add one other dimension to this, Jim. I think one needs
to compare the end state of this campaign, so to speak, which may not
eliminate the possibility of a Serb sergeant or a Serb unit acting against
a Kosovar village or vice versa, but will severely diminish his capability
to do that. One needs to compare that to the end state of not having
acted. The end state of not having acted would have unquestionably been
a massive invasion of Kosovo by the Serbs, a massive killing of Kosovar
civilians because --
JIM
LEHRER: Even without a peace agreement on the part of Milosevic? 
SAMUEL
BERGER: Not as of this point, but I -- I must say, as the President
has repeatedly said when he's addressed this issue, this is a mission
that has military risks, and I think the American people need to understand
that. We've taken every precaution that we can to minimize those risks.
We're prepared to react if he strikes out against us. But, so far, we've
had no casualties.