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| TROUBLED NEIGHBOR | |
 April 7, 1999 
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Macedonia has been criticized for transporting thousands of displaced Kosovars to neighboring countries without the knowledge of international aid agencies. Two regional experts and the ambassador discuss what may lie ahead.
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MARGARET WARNER: Now we'll go to some background on Macedonia to help explain what's happening there. And we begin with a report from Phil Ponce. |
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| Macedonia's history. | ||||||||||||||||||||
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The Greek claim to Macedonia goes back to the 4th Century BC, when
these lands were joined under the rule of Phillip II of Macedon. Two Balkan wars and two world wars left the Macedonia region in bloody
turmoil for the first half of this century. Only after World War II,
under the iron-fisted communist rule of Marshall Tito, did Macedonia
realize 30 years of peace as part of a new Yugoslavia. Today, Macedonia is governed by a coalition of three ethnically based parties-- one Macedonian Slav, one Albanian, one Serb. But the West has long worried that any conflict in the neighborhood could exacerbate ethnic tensions in Macedonia, and once again could draw in, or spill over into, neighboring countries. And so in 1992, at the request of new Macedonian President Kiro Gligorov, the United Nations deployed a small, 1,100-member monitoring force along the border with Yugoslavia, about half of which were Americans, including the three captured last week. However, that mandate officially ended earlier this year. NATO's troop strength in Macedonia grew to some 12,000 in recent months, elements of both a so-called extraction force to remove truce observers and also as the force that would secure a Serb-Kosovar deal for an autonomous Kosovo. Many of those troops are now left to build tent cities, disperse food and medical attention to the tens of thousands of Kosovar refugees who suddenly arrived in Macedonia, but who may end up going elsewhere. |
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| Macedonia's reaction. | ||||||||||||||||||||
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CHARLES KUPCHAN, Council on Foreign Relations: I think that the central issue that's motivating the government is the possibility of a tipping of the delicate ethnic balance in the country. The official statistics say 25 percent Albanian; it's actually higher than that, it's maybe a third, maybe higher, especially because refugees have been trickling in, they go down into the villages, they live there, they're unaccounted for, they don't have papers. And the real fear, I believe, in the minds of Macedonians is, could it be possible if this crisis continues that Macedonia will become an Albanian state because it has an Albanian majority? That's the nightmare that's motivating this. MARGARET WARNER: Do you agree with that?
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| A pan-Albanian sentiment? | ||||||||||||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: Well, how radicalized, picking up on your word, is the ethnic Albanian community now? CHARLES KUPCHAN: I think it's important to point out that Macedonia has a magical quality to it in two respects. One, it left Yugoslavia peacefully. MARGARET WARNER: The only one.
MARGARET WARNER: How do you explain that? CHARLES KUPCHAN: I think it's partly historical that these two peoples have been living together for a long time. It's partly that the Macedonians don't see their country as ethnically only Macedonian. It's a nation that has different constituent nations, and the Albanians actually say we are Macedonian in terms of our statehood, we are Albanian in ethnicity. I think the big problem for the future is this: Regardless of what happens with the refugee problem, there is a quiet discrimination in the policies of the Macedonian government which risks turning the Albanian minority into an underclass without opportunities for socioeconomic advancement and without opportunities for education. And even if we solve the Kosovo problem, we still have to make sure that Albanians in Macedonia feel like they belong and have opportunities in that state.
STEPHEN LARRABEE: No, I don't feel that way. Actually I think the situation is much more tense than Charles has indicated, although I have to say that the Macedonian government has made efforts in the last few years to try to reduce these tensions. But the fact of the matter is that the Albanian population does feel discrimination, and there are evidence of this. They only make up about 5 percent of the police force, they only make up about 7 percent of the army, and 10 percent of the administration. The real danger is if that if they are not given greater representation in the stayed administration, then they're forced into either the underground economy or into illegal activities. MARGARET WARNER: Is there a sort of pan-Albanian sentiment, though, that links Albanians in Macedonia with Albanians in Albania, and the KLA in Kosovo, for that matter? STEPHEN LARRABEE: Yes, but there are important differences. It's important to remember that after World War II Albania and the Albanians in Macedonia and in Kosovo were separated, and they have different identities. Kosovo was for the Macedonian Albanians, a kind of cultural center. They were cut off from the Albanians in Albania. So one should not automatically assume that there is a pan-Albanian. I think the real danger is that there's a fear that Macedonia could be Kosovoized, that is to say, that the spill over of Kosovo could radicalize, as I said, the Albanian population, and might even force them into succession. |
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| A wider Balkan war. | ||||||||||||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: All right. So let's look at this scenario for the wider Balkan war. The President has said he, and Madeleine Albright, Secretary of State, they're concerned that Kosovo, that crisis could destabilize its neighbors, particularly Macedonia, and that somehow that leads to a scenario where other countries come in. Give me what that scenario would look like.
MARGARET WARNER: Yes. And we should point out Macedonia is a larger area that the Greeks have big interest in; they didn't even want Macedonia to be called Macedonia. CHARLES KUPCHAN: And that's what's very weird about this Macedonia problem is in Bosnia everyone says you aren't us. In Macedonia, and Bulgaria, and Greece, everyone is saying you are us, we want you, you're no different than us. And so it's a very strange twist on the rest of the Balkan problem. MARGARET WARNER: Is that the potential scenario that you could have then, these other powers, once --- don't most of the Albanians and Macedonians, in fact, live on the western side anyway, next - STEPHEN LARRABEE: Yes, and some around Skopje as well.
STEPHEN LARRABEE: Well, essentially I think the real problem is that if the Albanian community in Macedonia were radicalized and then pushed for secession, then this would raise the question of the Macedonian statehood. And at that point many old historical grievances and tensions might arise, but it would arise only because the Albanian population had begun to push for secession, and then there was a possibility of a collapse, internal collapse of the Macedonian state. That would then raise larger international and regional issues. |
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| A potential doomsday scenario? | ||||||||||||||||||||
| MARGARET WARNER: How concerned are you, Madam Ambassador,
that such a scenario could develop, or just that the Kosovo conflict could
destabilize or country?
LJUBICA ACEVSKA: Well, I mean, there have been problems with all of our neighbors, but we have resolved most of the issues with all of our neighbors. Again, the more stable Macedonia is politically and economically, the less likely our neighbors can succeed in whatever ideas they may have. MARGARET WARNER: Would you two agree that NATO and the Clinton administration are right to be concerned about this potential doomsday scenario and right to take steps, such as airlifting the refugees out, which is really an unusual practice, for instance? CHARLES KUPCHAN: I think that the Macedonian fire wall, if you will, that has stopped the spread of the war, is a very valid point. In fact, I think it's one of the main reasons that NATO should be taking action now, to prevent this spreading because all these historical grievances are real. People live and breathe language ethnicity, religion. I think that if it spreads to Macedonia, it could well get bigger. The issue I think in the very short term though is I would rather see the Macedonian government, as you were saying, Margaret, let these people off the border, down the hill towards the valley into Skopje and have NATO say we promise you that they're not going to stay here, we will get them out. But for the next month give them shelter, give them food and give them medicine, because the humanitarian crisis is very real and very urgent. LJUBICA ACEVSKA: Well, I mean, we do agree, I mean, we do want to do as much as possible, but I reiterate the international community, NATO, has not been responsive. They only started responding in the past few days. And since they started to respond, once they started to help, we did make a lot of progress. MARGARET WARNER: All right, well thank you Madam Ambassador, thank you gentlemen very much. LJUBICA ACEVSKA: Thank you. CHARLES KUPCHAN: Thank you. STEPHEN LARRABEE: Thank you. |
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PHIL
PONCE: It was in Macedonia's capital of Skopje, on the day after the
first bombs dropped, that an angry crowd of pro-Serbian demonstrators
attacked the American, German, and French embassies. One week later,
three US soldiers on duty in Macedonia were taken prisoner, reportedly
with the assistance of local Serb sympathizers. And now, NATO's decision
to airlift refugees to locations around Europe and elsewhere has been
taken, in part, to relieve pressures on Macedonia. 
PHIL
PONCE: A land of steep mountains and deep valleys, Macedonia is predominately
rural and already very poor. Like other parts of the Balkans, its population
is a delicate ethnic and religious mix reflecting centuries of competing
migrations and dominations by outside powers. Nearly two-thirds of Macedonia's
two million people are of Slavic descent, Eastern Orthodox Christians,
but nearly a quarter of its people are ethnic Albanian Muslims. 
The
rest are Greeks, Turks, and Serbs. They're all confined to an area not
much bigger than the state of Vermont. And Macedonia's surrounding neighbors
-- Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, and Albania -- at one time or another all
have had designs on its territory. 
The
Bulgarian claim reverts to the 10th and 13th centuries, when the Bulgarian
Empire extended across Macedonia to the Adriatic Sea. The Serbian claim
stems from the victory of Serb King Stefan, who overran Macedonia in
the 14th century. And the Albanian claim is a result of five centuries
of Muslim domination of Macedonia that followed under the Turkish Ottoman
Empire. 
But
following Tito's death in 1980, Yugoslavia slowly disassembled, and
in late 1991, as Slovenia and Croatia embarked on their own wars of
independence, Macedonia slipped away quietly and declared independence
for the first time in 2,000 years. 
MARGARET
WARNER: Joining us now are Charles Kupchan, who served on the National
Security Council during President Clinton's first term. He teaches international
relations at Georgetown University and is a senior fellow at the Council
on Foreign Relations. He was in Macedonia recently. And Stephen Larrabee,
a senior staff member at RAND, a research organization; he edited the
1994 book, The Volatile Powder Keg: Balkan Security after the Cold
War. How do you explain Macedonia's reaction to this influx of refugees?
STEPHEN
LARRABEE, RAND: In essence I agree with it, but I think it's a little
bit more complicated than that. Even if these refugees were not Albanians,
I think this would pose a major problem for the Macedonian state, to
have to have an influx of 60,000, 70,000 or maybe even 100,000 poor,
homeless immigrants and refugees for a state that is itself very poor,
I think the real feeler is this will destabilize Macedonia, and that
what you could get is rising discontent among these refugees, which
could lead then it a radicalization of the ethnic Albanian community
in Macedonia. 
CHARLES
KUPCHAN: The Yugoslav army just took everything and disappeared, nobody
fought. The second thing is if you wander around Tetovo, Gostivar, villages
that are primarily Albanian, and you're with Macedonians or speaking
Macedonian, you don't feel tension. There's not hostility. You go to
Sarajevo today, you feel the hatred. That's remarkable. I think the
issue is -
MARGARET
WARNER: Do you see it that way, that even though the government there
is a coalition government, that every day Albanians in their everyday
lives don't feel that there's a potential problem there, that they don't
feel fully participatory? 
CHARLES
KUPCHAN: I think there are two schools of thought on that. One is if
you have an autonomous or independent Kosovo, you have claims for a
greater Albania, and that that's the problem. I don't think that's justified.
I think the best way to prevent the spread of the war is to make Kosovo
a safe place for Albanians to stay put so that they're happy and safe.
The real problem is that you get an influx into Macedonia, that you
then get the radicalization of that population, and here I disagree
a little bit with Steve but I think the risk here, coming back to what
Ambassador Acevska says, is if the Macedonians don't treat the Albanians
well who are coming across, that could radicalize the Albanians that
are already there. But the real concern is, assuming you have a split
in the Macedonian-Albanian communities, and they start going after each
other, you then have, as your piece showed, a Bulgaria that says we're
not even sure you're a separate country, we think you're Western Bulgaria.
You have Greece that says wait a minute, you can't claim Alexander the
Great because then what happens to Greek history.
LJUBICA
ACEVSKA: Well, I mean, certainly, there are concerns that it could destabilize
the country, but see that is why we are appealing to the international
community to help us. You know, again, in Macedonia, since our independence,
we have really made a lot of progress. We're a pro-western government,
market economy. The two different ethnic groups are living together,
are cooperating. You know, we have implemented the concept of affirmative
action so that there will be more opportunities for the Albanians. We
are making certain that they are more integrated in all aspects of society.
We are taking these steps. But also, the economy is very depressed.
And the economic situation can have a lot of impact on what happens
with the country. As these scenarios are being discussed, why don't
we take steps to make sure that these scenarios do not happen? My president
always says let's look toward the future. Let's look toward becoming
a member of NATO, a member of the European Union, so -- instead of the
past -- so that's why it is very important for the international community
to help Macedonia. Macedonia is on the right path, and the international
community should help Macedonia to continue along that path. 
MARGARET
WARNER: Before we look ahead to the brighter scenario, let me just ask
you one question about the doomsday scenario. Do you feel that some
of your neighbors, I know you've been working on relations with them,
but potentially do have designs on Macedonia?