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| RISING CONCERN | |
 May 18, 1999 
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Public opinion polls show a growing uneasiness with NATO's bombing campaign against Yugoslavia. Terence Smith talks with The NewsHour's panel of regional commentators about public support for the alliance's actions.
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| Is public support diminishing? | ||||||||||||||||||||
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LEE CULLUM: Terry, I think Andy Kohut's poll is very accurate, as far as this part of the country is concerned. There has been deep skepticism about the war here almost from the beginning. That doesn't mean everybody feels that way but certainly many people do. You know, I have to admit that I supported the bombing at the beginning. I had no idea that it was going to unleash this flood of refugees in Macedonia and Albania and now in Montenegro as well. I think now, looking back, then on March 23rd, there were only 60,000 refugees at that time; there are now 600,000 and more and more to come. If we had helped those refugees at that time continue to try to work with Milosevic, I think we would be better off today than we are, and we certainly would be no worse off today than -- no worse off if we followed that course than we are today. TERENCE SMITH: So you feel it's a mistake? LEE CULLUM: I do. Yes, a blunder. TERENCE SMITH: Bob Kittle in San Diego, from what you can sense, is support fading there as well?
TERENCE SMITH: Cynthia Tucker, do you hear some of that ambivalence in Atlanta?
TERENCE SMITH: Patrick McGuigan, do you think the difficulties of the campaign itself, explain the poll?
TERENCE SMITH: So you believe that, if anything, public attitudes have hardened against the war in Oklahoma? PATRICK McGUIGAN: Definitely. And I also think that different elements are finding ways to begin to work together to express that opposition. |
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| Will the public support ground troops? | ||||||||||||||||||||
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TERENCE SMITH: Right. Lee Cullum, I wonder, you heard Bob Kittle referring earlier to some new pressure for ground troops. Does that make sense to you?
TERENCE SMITH: Bob Kittle, how would that scenario sit with you and with the folks in your area?
TERENCE SMITH: Cynthia Tucker, what's your view of that? Similarly bleak?
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| President Clinton's handling of the war. | ||||||||||||||||||||
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TERENCE SMITH: Patrick McGuigan, do you feel there's a public impatience with the war? Is that the right word?
TERENCE SMITH: Lee Cullum, do you feel that this negotiated solution would sit well in Dallas? LEE CULLUM: Yes, I think it probably would, Terry. I want to say not with everybody. But I feel that it woman I think a partition of Kosovo yielding to Serbia, the northern region with the sacred ground of 1389 and the mines -- I understand the mines are very profitable there -- giving the southeast to the Kosovars and trying to make it safe I believe would sit well with many people here. You know, I want to say this about NATO and Bob Kittle's observation, which may turn out to be true - I hope not - you know, with all those weapons and with all that wealth, I don't think you can ever count out NATO. If it wants to be a factor and a major factor in the world, it would continue to be. It's got too many assets not to be. TERENCE SMITH: Bob Kittle, do you find the people in your area are following this story the way they were in the early weeks of the campaign?
TERENCE SMITH: And obviously there's no answer yet. So thanks to all of you very much. |
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TERENCE
SMITH: For more on public attitudes towards the bombing campaign in
Yugoslavia we turn to our regional commentators: Lee Cullum of the Dallas
Morning News and editorial page editors Bob Kittle of the San
Diego Union Tribune, Pat McGuigan of the Daily Oklahoman,
and Cynthia Tucker of the Atlanta Constitution. Welcome to you
all. 
TERENCE
SMITH: Lee Cullum, you just heard 
ROBERT
KITTLE: I think there's a lot of ambivalence about the operation in
the Balkans that wasn't there at the beginning. In the beginning, the
president portrayed this as a rather antiseptic air war only with the
risk of U.S. casualties rather slight; there was no warning, at least
from the White House, that we might have the mistakes that we've had,
of course, of Macedonians being killed through mistakes. So I think
it's only natural that people begin to question our policy here, because
the reality is that our policy is not achieving our objective. Unlike
Lee, I believe we need to be in this campaign. I believe we have an
obligation to put an end to the genocide that's going on in Kosovo.
But I have to acknowledge that what we are doing so far -- this very
limited air war with the kind of gradual escalation -- is not accomplishing
our objectives. The reality is, of course, that armies simply do not
surrender to aircraft, and I see in our letters to the editor, at least,
a growing number of people who seem to say let's get in there and finish
it, or let's get out. So while I certainly don't question Andy Kohut's
numbers about the reluctance of Americans to embrace a ground war. After
all, our appetite, Americans' appetite for war is very limited, and
there is always this undercurrent of isolationism in America. I think
it's grown stronger since the end of the Cold War. But I think there
are a number of Americans who are saying if we're going to be involved
here, then let's do what it takes to achieve our objectives, to finish
this as quickly as possible. And, inevitably, I think that points in
the direction that Tony Blair has been trying to point NATO in; that
is the possibility of a ground campaign.
CYNTHIA
TUCKER: Definitely, Terry. There was ambivalence among our leaders when
the campaign started. Perhaps there is more ambivalence now. It's inevitable,
since most of the news footage has focused on NATO's mistakes, civilian
casualties. I have to say that Yugoslavia's manipulation of the news
media in this campaign has been brilliant. They have not allowed us
to see their atrocities. They have kept journalists out of Yugoslavia;
they've showed them -- and Kosovo -- they showed them only NATO's errors,
or what they say are NATO's errors, given that, the American public,
including readers here in Atlanta, have seen very little video footage
of the kind of atrocities Milosevic's men have been carrying out. So
it's no great surprise that we have seen only greater streams of refugees
and NATO mistakes that ambivalence towards this campaign would increase.
PATRICK
McGUIGAN: I think it's certainly a factor in the Oklahoman editorially
opposed this intervention in the Yugoslav civil war from the very beginning.
We've stuck to that position. And I'd say most Oklahomans, certainly
there are contrary views, but most Oklahomans have been heavily doubting
or actually opposed to the policy from the beginning. I think that has
solidified. There are some unusual alliances emerging in Oklahoma between
conservatives and more traditional pacifists or liberals on certain
issues revolving around the war. You know, our senators, both Inhofe
and Nickles, basically laid out a sequence of events that they feared
would happen if we intervened and, indeed, that is more or less what
has happened. The refugee situation has gotten worse, the misery has
increased. So, the intervention in the name of humanitarianism, but
without a clear focus to the policy and without a sense of military
tactics, as Bob indicated, have led to us this very sad state of affairs
where just about every possible factor is worse after eight weeks.
LEE
CULLUM: No, it doesn't, Terry. You know, I am terribly afraid that if
we send in ground troops, we will lose lives and we'll be no better
off than we are right now. You now Wayne Gretzky, the great hockey player,
said "I don't skate to where the puck is, I skate to where the
puck will be." Here is where I think the puck will be. Milosevic
will survive, he has a habit of surviving however much I might not like
it and many of us might not like it. I think we'll see thousands of
refugees who will never go home again. They'll have to be welcomed into
the 19 NATO countries, including the United States. We hope that perhaps
Kosovo can be made safe, perhaps through partition for at least some
refugees, but Milosevic will continue to be a threat to the region and
we're going to have to continue to try to contain the Balkans. That's
where we're going to be. Sending ground troops, I'm afraid, will not
improve that situation one wit, anymore than it approved the situation
in Vietnam to lose 50,000 lives there. It didn't help our negotiating
position at all.
ROBERT
KITTLE: Well, I think if Lee is correct, that the scenario is going
to be that Milosevic is essentially going to win, that he will maintain
control in Kosovo, the refugees will not be returned, I think we're
talking about the demise of NATO. The 19 members of NATO led by the
United States have the military means to defeat this third-rate military
power in the Balkans. All that is lacking is the political will. And
the political will may require that ground forces be sent in in order
to stabilize the area. Certainly after eight weeks of bombing, and Milosevic
shows no sign of agreeing to NATO's terms, not realistically. The war
in the Persian Gulf from beginning to end was already over at this stage.
We had a month-long air war and then we sent the ground troops in and
we ended it and we basically solved the problem, at least in terms of
the occupation of Kuwait. We certainly have the ability to do that here.
And if we accept a half-baked deal, if the scenario that Lee foresees
comes about, I think you're going to see the collapse of NATO; you're
going to see the Western European countries and the United States in
this historic alliance of the last 50 years simply fall apart because
if we lose this one, there's a lot that we've lost here more than just
simply the tragedy in Kosovo. We will have lost the western alliance,
I believe. 
CYNTHIA
TUCKER: Yes, I agree completely with Bob. I think that this is a critical
issue for NATO. I also think that one of the things that is lacking
here is presidential leadership. Andy Kohut talked about the fact that
about 50 percent of the people polled were opposed to ground troops.
I actually expected that figure to be higher. I think that if the president
were to come out and make a forceful case, both why we must put ground
troops in Kosovo, otherwise we cannot expect the refugees to return,
I think that you would see some growing public support. I also think
it was a critical mistake for President Clinton to take ground troops
off the table in the beginning. You don't say to a bully like Milosevic
"we're going to meet you on the battlefield but we're only going
to take baseball bats, not guns." 
PATRICK
McGUIGAN: Well, that's a problem because frankly, even if I supported
this policy, I would argue that it's a normal function of a conflict
like this as things go well, support is high, as things initially begin
it's high. As problems begin to emerge, support drops. That's a normal
function and then leaders like presidents have to draw on a reservoir
of trust. They have to draw on the confidence of their fellow citizens
in a difficult situation. And Bill Clinton's support, while broad, it's
the old proverb of it being about an inch deep. I don't think he has
the depth of support. And the people in the middle, who had doubts about
this policy but rallied to the president's support and to the support
of our military personnel at the beginning - their doubts are now being
fed by the actual events and this president doesn't have that proverbial
reservoir of trust to draw upon. 
ROBERT
KITTLE: You know, Terry, in my experience they are. The letters to the
editors that we receive run very strongly on this issue. And we have
received a lot of them and we continue to receive a lot of them. So,
if there was anything surprising in Andy Kohut's numbers, it was the
sense that Americans are kind of disengaged from this war, that they've
pulled back, that they're not paying attention, that they're paying
more attention to the tragedy in Littleton, Colorado for example, which
is only natural. But I think Americans do care about this war and I
think that Cynthia is exactly right when she says if the president gets
out - if the president takes a page from Tony Blair and gets out and
aggressively advocates a strong position for the United States here,
public opinion will follow. If the president sits back and let's the
polls dictate his policy, then clearly that's not leadership. And I
think people do care about this and they are open and searching for
a solution.