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| YUGOSLAV ELECTIONS | |
 September 25, 2000  |
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Will presidential elections results remove Slobodan Milosevic from power?
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RAY SUAREZ: For more on the election in Yugoslavia, we turn to Daniel Serwer, senior fellow at the U.S. Institute of peace and former special U.S. Envoy to the Bosnian Federation. He returned from the Yugoslavian republic of Montenegro last week. And Laura Silber, a journalist and author; she wrote Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation, and for ten years reported extensively from Yugoslavia for the Financial Times. Well, let me get a sense from both of you what you read in an election where even at this late hour, both sides are still declaring victory. Laura Silber? |
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| A rigged election? | ||||||||||||||||||||
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LAURA SILBER, Journalist/Author: Well, I think while both sides are declaring victory, we clearly have one side who won, and that's the opposition. And we have the side of Slobodan Milosevic, who is claiming victory just because they're desperate, they're backed into a corner, and now Milosevic is probably at his most dangerous. We can expect anything from him. RAY SUAREZ: Daniel Serwer?
RAY SUAREZ: Sounds like you're both pretty pessimistic, even if the opposition sets up a margin of victory that would be hard to cover with shenanigans. Daniel Serwer, what are Slobodan Milosevic's options? DANIEL SERWER: Well, he has many options. He can simply declare victory and not produce any evidence that the vote count is there to support that allegation. He could even cancel the elections, claiming, "look, they weren't free and fair, everybody has told you that." He could... he can make an effort to push the elections to a second round two weeks from now, though I doubt that, because he would really lose in a one-on-one contest with Kostunica. RAY SUAREZ: Laura Silber, weren't these election at first scheduled for early next year? Why were they now?
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| Milosevic's uncertain future | ||||||||||||||||||||
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RAY SUAREZ: So if I understand you correctly, you're saying at the end of this time line, whether sooner or later, it's Milosevic out of office? LAURA SILBER: Absolutely. This was a vote against him. This is his first... first of all, the first time he has dared to come for a direct election since 1992. I think we can see that Mr. Milosevic, the people, and it's not just an urban crowd in Belgrade, it's not just the intelligentsia, this is a wide-spoken, very wide, broad coalition throughout Serbia. It's people in villages. He now controls only one quarter of all the municipalities in Serbia. So what he thought he would win, he thought he would tell the West, okay, you're going to have to deal with me for the next four years. Now he finds himself fighting for his political survive. And because he's an indicted war criminal, he's actually fighting for his very survival. So I think what's very key in the next few days is how those around him react, what they do, when will they start to dessert him -- how confident Milosevic is that those around him are going to say, "okay, we've had enough. We can't really pull this one off." RAY SUAREZ: Daniel Serwer, do you share that view, that sooner or later he's out?
RAY SUAREZ: Well, let's turn to the man on the other side of the ballot there, Kostunica. What do you know about him, Daniel Serwer? |
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| An united opposition | ||||||||||||||||||||
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DANIEL SERWER: I met Kostunica a couple years ago, had a long talk with him. There's no question that he's a vigorous nationalist. There also seems to be no question but that he's a clean politician, or at least he's seen that way in Serbia, and I think there's lots of evidence that he is what he appears to be, which is a straightforward, honest, vigorous nationalist, and it doesn't surprise me that the challenge to Milosevic comes from a nationalist side of politics. RAY SUAREZ: Laura Silber, you had already mentioned there was an expectation that the opposition would be in disarray. How did they manage to unite behind this one candidate? LAURA SILBER: Well, I think one thing about Kostunica, I've known him
for over a decade and, above all, Kostunica is someone who is a very
modest man, and in these days when you have the kind of corrupt, the
absurdity that a small fraction of the population, Milosevic's co-jury,
have gotten rich, Kostunica is someone who is really a strong candidate
against him. He's a strong opponent, because people see that he's not
corrupt, that he walks without bodyguards, that he drives a battered
Yugo, a little sedan. RAY SUAREZ: With those references to his nationalism, and he's been widely referred to as such, in the past couple of hours, the United Nations, through the office of Kofi Annan, various foreign ministers from Western Europe and from the United States through the State Department have called on Milosevic to leave. And often in the calculus of Serbia, that's been pointed to by Milosevic, "see, see, this is someone who is backed by the West." Does this make Kostunica's job harder if he's trying to get his arms around this country? |
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| Is the West helping? | ||||||||||||||||||||
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RAY SUAREZ: Daniel Serwer, in the last 24 hours, some of the parties I mentioned have been dangling the possibility of easing sanctions if Milosevic leaves. That hasn't worked in the past. Does it have a better shot at working now? DANIEL SERWER: If he really leaves power and not just office because one of his options is to hold on to power and try to govern from the presidency of the Socialist Party or even from the presidency of Serbia eventually. It seems to me that the West has to be prepared to move very quickly now to be helpful to Serbia if, in fact, Milosevic is out of the way. RAY SUAREZ: And you've just come back from Montenegro. What's the situation there?
RAY SUAREZ: Daniel Serwer, Laura Silber, thank you both. |
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DANIEL
SERWER, U.S. Institute of Peace: I agree with that. This is the beginning
of the story, not the end of the story. No one should expect Slobodan
Milosevic to leave power tomorrow because he's lost these elections.
LAURA
SILBER: Absolutely. Ray, he thought... Milosevic thought that he would
get the jump on everyone. He thought he had it all sewn up. The opposition
was in disarray. Montenegro, Serbia's junior partner in the Yugoslav
Federation, was also at odds with the opposition over ultimate goals
of the relationship within the Yugoslav Federation. He thought he could
easily beat the opposition. The opposition outsmarted Milosevic. And
frankly, I'm positive now, I'm very optimistic because I think although
Milosevic may try to do something dangerous, anything is possible, the
Serbian people have clearly voted in an anti-Milosevic referendum. They
voted in an overwhelming victory, they voted against him. I think this
is a very, very important moment for Serbia and for the West in terms
of ultimately gaining stability in the region. 
DANIEL
SERWER: I share the view that this could well be the beginning of the
end, but it's only the beginning, and the ultimate disposition of Milosevic
isn't completely clear to me. And I think the next few weeks will be
very, very rough. He will try to suppress opposition within the country.
He'll try to rally his security forces, the police, the army to that
cause. And he's been quite successful at it over the last year or so.
The police used to hesitate to use violence against Serbs in the street.
They no longer do that. So I think we're in for a rough few weeks if
he decides to resist. 
And
that's why he's managed to really rally people behind him. He's also
someone who is basically not controversial. He's someone from within
the country, and I think that that's very, very important, and that
was why the opposition was able to unite. And he's also someone that
is not tainted by western money. And I think in the Milosevic campaign,
that's played a very strong role. So all these factors coalesced to
really make Kostunica a good candidate, although many of us might have
had fears that he's a nationalist. I think we'll see, if he's ever allowed
to take office, and that's a big question, I think he's someone that's
going to play by the rules and who wants to, by his own admission, make
Serbia a normal place to live. And he understands that's accepting certain
international laws, rules, and regulation. And he's someone who's really
staked his whole career on being a man of his word. And I think that's
important to remember today. 
LAURA
SILBER: In some sense it does, but I think what we saw from Serbs throughout
Serbia is a vote to end Serbia's isolation, to end this period of misery,
of poverty, and really, although many Serbs obviously have not come
to the realization of Serbia's role in the horrors of the wars in Bosnia
and Croatia and Kosovo, I think what we're seeing now is a realization
that people want to be part of the West. And so that while we have these
people, Kofi Annan and various western politicians, welcoming Kostunica's
victory, I think that somehow Milosevic's strident anti-western propaganda
may have fallen on deaf ears because we saw the results or the results
that the opposition is saying. So people were really saying, "okay
we've had enough of your policies, Milosevic." 
DANIEL
SERWER: People were nervous in Montenegro when I was there last week.
They're nervous because they fear that Milosevic might move against
Montenegro, perhaps as part of an effort to create an emergency that
will rally the citizens of Yugoslavia to his side, claiming that Montenegro
is a rebellious province and that they've got to come to heel. I think
that he may have his hands full in Serbia for a moment, and that he's
not likely to move too quickly against Montenegro. But everything depends
on what the popular reaction is to these elections, the results, and
if the people go to the streets. If people go to the streets in very
large numbers, it's going to be hard for Milosevic to handle. 
