INSIDE BULGARIA

	November 22, 1999
	Ray Suarez has the story on President Clinton's trip to Bulgaria and its implications on politics in and around the Balkans.

RAY SUAREZ: President Clinton's visit to Bulgaria was a celebration of that country's ten-year experiment in democracy. It had both somber and festive moments. The president placed a wreath at a World War I memorial to symbolize nearly a century of diplomatic relations between the United States and Bulgaria. During a press conference with Bulgarian President Peter Stoyanov in the capital, Sofia, Mr. Clinton praised Bulgaria's cooperation with NATO during the Kosovo conflict last spring. PRESIDENT CLINTON: Well, first of all, I am very grateful for the support the allies received during the conflict with Kosovo, and for the direction taken by Bulgaria under this president and this government. And we are committed to supporting Bulgaria over the long run, economically, politically, and militarily. And I think we will be doing it for many years, and I am looking forward to that. RAY SUAREZ: Bulgaria is a nation of about eight million people. It borders Yugoslavia, and was one of several Balkan states that allowed NATO jets to use its airspace. Its economy has suffered with the implosion of the former Yugoslavia, as well as its own difficult transition from Communism to market economics. Public opposition in Bulgaria to the NATO air war grew when an errant NATO missile hit a residential area outside Sofia, but Bulgarian officials continued to support the western alliance. Bulgaria's pro-western government hopes that support could eventually lead to NATO membership, a goal it has sought since it began moving from dictatorship to democracy a decade ago. This evening, President Clinton told a flag-waving crowd in Sofia's Nevski Square to stay the democratic course. A fireworks display capped the President's speech. RAY SUAREZ: For more on Bulgaria, we get two views, from Sol Polansky, former U.S. Ambassador to Bulgaria. He served from 1987 until 1990. And from Norbert Yasharoff, U.S. Correspondent for Maritza Newspapers in Bulgaria and retired from the U.S. Information Agency, he was born in Bulgaria and is now a U.S. citizen. Ambassador, we've heard Bulgaria called a model citizen in the Balkans. It's done a lot of things right as far as international business interests and monetary agencies are concerned. Yet it still is suffering economically. Why? SOL POLANSKY, Former U.S. Ambassador, Bulgaria: Well, I think there are probably a number of important reasons. I think they haven't gone ahead with the economic reforms at the speed they wanted to. I think in part if you look back over the last ten years, it really hasn't been ten years of economic reform. They've had weak governments. They had a socialist government in the mid '90s by Jan Vidanof that basically ran the economy into the ground. Inflation amounted to about 2,000 percent in the first quarter of 1997; as a result of negotiations with the IMF and the World Bank and other institutions, Bulgarians began to toward a currency board to provide some sense of stability and some sense of feeling that they could put the economy on a sound footing. And so really it's been, I think, only in the past two years that they've really had a process in place that could begin a real sense of reform, begin the whole process of privatization in a serious way. Part of that was interrupted by the war in Kosovo and all the efforts that went into that, the kind of sacrifices that the Bulgarians made, lost markets, bridges were down in the Danube so the whole question of transportation, all of the revenue from that kind of activity was lost to the Bulgarians. And they are faced with a very difficult problem: They have high unemployment. They're trying to get rid of all the state enterprises which they hope to do by the middle of May of next year. So they've got a real problem in front of them, but I think that they're on the right track. RAY SUAREZ: Norbert Yasharoff, let's talk about the Bulgarians on the street. Though international agencies talk to governments and they're reporting good news, would we get as good a report from somebody in the shops in Sofia or out in the provinces trying to do their marketing for the day? NORBERT YASHAROFF, Maritza Newspapers: It depends on whom you talk to, but let me take you back to December of 1996 when an almost unpopular uprising took place in the streets of Sofia. The people wanted the Socialists, former Communists, out completely out. There were clashes are the police in the national assembly. In April of '97, free elections were held. People were enthusiastic. I think that currently at least two-thirds of the population are still behind that first really democratic government that was put in place in April of 1997. Of course, you will find the traditional gloom sayers or-- I forget the English word-but there is doom sayers and they are mostly in that third of the population which is made up of retirees. The retirees today are those who complain every other Wednesday in front of the Sofia National Theater. They complain against the government. They claim that they don't want to topple the government but in every speech they ask for its disbandment and eventually giving over the rule to the former socialists. RAY SUAREZ: But isn't that a generation split that we see in other countries too? Older people still looking back to the older ways and younger people.... NORBERT YASHAROFF: Yes. I would fully agree with that. That's why I don't think that this should make us worry too much in the West as to the future of Bulgaria. This government is so set on becoming part of Western Europe, it pushes so hard for membership in NATO which in its eyes will give it a legitimacy and also protection against future totalitarian or other governments or people who would like to force Bulgaria into the kind of 45-year slavery that the Communists pushed her into. RAY SUAREZ: Well, let's talk a little bit about getting into the European Union and to NATO. Many countries have made similar requests, similar applications. And there's a little bit of a backlash, a kind of disappointment, when it doesn't happen. Unless Bulgaria is put on a fast track, is there a risk that it could be... it could go the way of the Ukraine? SOL POLANSKY: There is the risk, I don't think it's very great, quite frankly. I think in some ways the European community understands that. It's my understanding that in December of this year, there will be a meeting of the European Commission with Bulgaria and several other countries that want to join the European Union and that they'll try to put Bulgaria's request for membership in the European Union on the fast track, the fast succession track. There are a number of things that Bulgaria will have to do to make that possible. One of them is to have what amounts to a full democratic system. The second is a market economy. Third is respect for human rights. And for Bulgaria there is another issue that has to be resolved, and that's the whole question of the nuclear power plants that Bulgaria has -- old Soviet power plants that are dangerous and that the European Commission, I think, will insist that somehow they be decommissioned as part of the process. RAY SUAREZ: Norbert Yasharoff, I think it's easy to see why getting into the European Union would interest Bulgaria for many reasons, the foreign policy and aid that it would get with its industries. NORBERT YASHAROFF: Right. RAY SUAREZ: But why NATO? Why is it so important to get into NATO when Bulgaria, there's nobody knocking at its borders, nobody about to declare war on Bulgaria? NORBERT YASHAROFF: As I mentioned before, Bulgaria wants a shield, a shield against any future aggressor. The lesson of the Soviet Union having subjugated the countries of Eastern Europe is still very much alive in their minds. They want to belong to the West and to be protected collectively by the West. So that is very important. In some respects it's even more important than joining the EU, the European Union, but just to add a few things to what the ambassador so well described, the commissioner for the expansion of the European Union, Gunter Hoygan, recently granted... well, several months ago granted an interview to Bulgarian Television in which he said as far as he's concerned Bulgaria is almost a member. It's only a matter of months. And the Bulgarians insist on their part that they have taken care of those more dangerous units of the nuclear reactor at Kosovo in order to satisfy the requirements of the European Atomic Energy Commission. RAY SUAREZ: With a country so resolutely looking toward the West, I guess Bulgaria is hampered a little bit by the unchangeable reality of geography. Many of the places that it would like to trade with are not close. The Danube is still blocked and the United States says until Serbia changes its government, it's unlikely to get the money it needs to fix that river and main avenue of commerce. SOL POLANSKY: I think it's a real problem. I think the European Union apparently is looking at a program that might loosen up funds that would help Bulgaria and other countries, but I think until there is a greater sense of investment in places like Bulgaria, it is going to be a hard job for Bulgaria to pull out of its economic situation. RAY SUAREZ: And it isn't it important for the people to see that kind of inward investment too, to know that their suffering has been worth it? NORBERT YASHAROFF: Of course. Some of the people and certainly the opponents of the government are pointing out that, yes, the government has speeded up tremendously the pace of privatization but then haven't been very selective in to whom do they sell those government factories and firms and so on and so forth. Because a lot of the buyers turn out later not to have had the money that they originally pledged themselves to invest into those firms. So of course it is very important. But on the other hand, the Bulgarian media reports that they claim a very well known international firm of investment consultants, PKGP, has rated Bulgaria as one of the best investment risks in the world today. RAY SUAREZ: Well, gentlemen, thank you very much. Norbert Yasharoff, Sol Polansky. SOL POLANSKY: Thank you very much. NORBERT YASHAROFF: Thank you.