HOLY WAR?

August 12, 1999
		Three years after fighting in Chechnya ended, a new revolt has begun in the Russian republic of Dagestan. What will it cost Russia to keep Dagestan from breaking away?

Map of Dagestan Aug. 9, 1999: Russian president Boris Yeltsin fires his prime minister. May 12, 1999: President Yeltsin explains his decision to fire his government. Feb. 15, 1999: A report on Boris Yeltsin and the future of Russia. Sept. 2, 1998: Russian political and economic crisis management. Dec. 26, 1997: A look at the shattered Russian health care system. July 22, 1997: A discussion with Moscow correspondent David Hoffman. Complete NewsHour coverage of Europe   Face of Russia The Library of Congress's Russia study Russian Government Russian Embassy in Washington, DC	ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: The fighting in Russia's Southern republics. We start with some background from Spencer Michels. SPENCER MICHELS: For nearly a week, there's been fighting between Russian soldiers and pro-independence guerrillas in the Russian Republic of Dagestan. And now the predominantly Muslim rebels have turned a political conflict into a religious cause, calling for a holy war and for Dagestan's independence from the Russian Federation. For Russia's leaders in Moscow - eight hundred miles to the Northwest - this is yet another rebellion in the North Caucasus region.
	A history of insurrections
	SPENCER MICHELS: Dagestan lies next to the breakaway Republic of Chechnya, and its population is complex mix of nationalities. Western scholars regard it as lawless and wild. The rebellion in Dagestan is often compared to the fighting in Chechnya, which lasted two years -- from 1994 to 1996. That insurrection cost Russia about 3,000 military casualties and much criticism from Muslim and other nations for the destruction of much of that province and tens of thousands of civilian deaths. Moscow eventually threw in the towel and withdrew its troops, giving Chechnya de facto independence -- although no nation including Russia has recognized it as a separate nation. Yesterday, the rebels in Dagestan announced that Shamil Basayev, one of the guerrilla leaders of the Chechen rebellion, is the commander-in-chief of their armed forces. SHAMIL BASAYEV: (in Russian) I want to say that time has come to liberate ourselves from the Russian tyranny. The Jihad must go on. We will accomplish our struggle only when will liberate whole of Dagestan. SPENCER MICHELS: Last weekend, the rebels seized several villages in the mountainous region. They say they've downed at least three Russian helicopters. Russian authorities say there are about 1200 rebel troops whom they describe as "bandits" and "terrorists." Russian officials say ten of their troops have been killed in the conflict, but they allege that dozens of the Dagestani insurgents have lost their lives.
	A panel discussion
	ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Margaret Warner takes it from there. MARGARET WARNER: For more on this conflict, and its potential significance, we turn to Philip Kohl, Professor of Anthropology at Wellesley College. He has spent the past four summers researching in Dagestan. And Fiona Hill, associate director of a Harvard University project on strengthening democratic institutions. She's traveled extensively in Russia's Caucasus Region, including Dagestan. Miss Hill, explain to us, why has this conflict erupted now? FIONA HILL: This is a direct result of the devastating war in Chechnya. Basically, the region has never recovered from the effects of the war. There's been little attempt at reconstruction. We have many political divisions in the region. As you've seen, weapons are flowing freely there. There's mass employment and severe social dislocation. It's a recipe for disaster. This disaster has now come. MARGARET WARNER: Professor Kohl, do you agree this is born of some homegrown discontent? PHILIP KOHL: Yes. That is basic to the whole problem. The economic situation is chaotic and deteriorating. The unemployment is very, very high, as Ms. Hill said. You have a disproportionally young population, many of whom used to seek employment in Russia but that option is closed to them now for a variety of reasons -- largely closed to them. It's a situation waiting to explode, and it's beginning to explode. MARGARET WARNER: Miss Hill, before we go on talking about Dagestan, why is Dagestan important to Russia? Why is Dagestan and this whole Caucasus region important to Russia, how important? FIONA HILL: This is Russia's strategic borderland. And it's now its most sensitive geopolitical frontier. As you saw on the map at the beginning of the segment, this is the borderland with Iran and Turkey. It's the strategic coastline on the Caspian Sea, which has now become increasingly important because of the Caspian oil resources there. This is also historically a very important region for Russia. Russia has fought long and hard over the last couple of centuries to conquer and then regain control of the Caucasus. And a lot of Russian blood has been spilt, not just during the Chechen war, but over the last two centuries there. MARGARET WARNER: And, Professor Kohl, would you say this conflict has potential significance for the West as well? PHILIP KOHL: Well, of course, it does, because the Caucasus is a very vital area for the reasons of the oil resources of the Caspian. This is an area bordering Iran and bordering Turkey. Political stability in the Caucasus I think is in the best interest of all the countries involved. MARGARET WARNER: All right. Tell us, Professor Kohl, staying with you about this Shamil Basayev, the rebel leader. We just saw him in the videotape. Who is he, what's driving him? PHILIP KOHL: Well, he's a renegade field commander. He has broken with the leadership in Chechnya with President Muskatov of Chechnya. He is trying to set up a united state that joins together Dagestan and Chechnya. I think he is deliberately evoking the image of the legendary Mann Shamil, the fighter of the first half of the 19th century that kept the Russians at bay for centuries. He is a seasoned guerrilla fighter who was a hero from the Chechen point of view in the Chechen war. He's a very tough character. MARGARET WARNER: Would you agree, Miss Hill; a very tough character? FIONA HILL: He certainly is. But if you're looking to see whether he has the capability of carrying a liberation movement in Dagestan, he can't really command the kind of popularity in Dagestan that he could in Chechnya. Dagestan is a very complex mosaic of 40 different ethnic groups. MARGARET WARNER: You mean, even though they're mostly all Muslim or Islam, they're still very, very different. FIONA HILL: Yes. That is a very loose unifying factor. As I said, there are 40 different ethnic groups in Dagestan. They all have their own agendas. And the Chechens are not very popular. There was a lot of spillover from the fighting in Chechnya into Dagestan. And a lot of Dagestanis suffered very greatly from the activities of people like Basayev.
	Can Russia hold on to Dagestan?
	MARGARET WARNER: So, Professor Kohl, would you say that he has the potential for generating enough popular support in Dagestan, or do you think not? PHILIP KOHL: Well, depending upon what happens, the potential, yes. Does he have it at the moment? No. I would agree completely with what Miss Hill has said. Islam in Dagestan is pervasive, it's a proud and traditionally Islamic area. But it is not monolithic. And, last summer, for example, the Grand Mufte, the head of Islam was shot dead on the streets in Makhachkala, and most people - MARGARET WARNER: That's the capital. PHILIP KOHL: -- the capital of Dagestan. And most people immediately blamed it on these Islamic extremists. Besides - MARGARET WARNER: I'm sorry. Let me make sure I get your point. So you're saying there's all kinds of conflict even among all these Islamic groups. PHILIP KOHL: Absolutely. And there are many very devout Dagestanis who think Mr. Basayev is a terrorist. MARGARET WARNER: Miss Hill, as one of you, I think, noted, the Chechen president has said they're not behind this, but do you believe that? I mean, how much do you think this is Chechen agitation, Chechnya next door? FIONA HILL: There's a lot of opportunism here. As Professor Kohl said, you have a lot of groups in the area, all with their own agendas. In Chechnya -- there is not a master plan on the part of the Chechen government to take over this area. In fact, the Chechen government is not capable of any kind of master plan because it is equally divided. Maskhadov himself has very limited authority even within his own republic. So you're basically seeing people trying to take control of a very chaotic, very uncertain situation. And they're using any slogans they can rally some support behind. MARGARET WARNER: And so, staying with you, what will it take for Russia to hold on to Dagestan? FIONA HILL: Well, it won't take bombs and troops. This is tragedy of the matter. Russia, unfortunately, has very little authority. We're talking about Moscow's authority here. As we've seen this week, Moscow has been very preoccupied with its own political struggles. And as a result of the financial crisis last year, there are very little resources to offer the region, to revive the economy. And that's the basic problem. This is a terrible situation, a terrible economic situation, total political destruction, social dislocation, and bombs and troops are not going to fix this. They may have a short-term fix in terms of stopping this fighting. But the problems that have made this such a fertile ground for this kind of activity will remain. MARGARET WARNER: Professor Kohl, bombs and troops, though, on the Russian' part wasn't even capable of a short-term fix in Chechnya. Why should they be able to put this rebellion down? PHILIP KOHL: Well, they may not be able to. It's a very delicate game that is being played now -- a cat-and-mouse game. Mr. Basayev has engaged in what could be called the politics of provocation. He's hoping for a heavy-handed response, precisely to elicit more sympathy on the part of the local population, I believe. And the Russians are capable of doing that. Hopefully, they will not do that. And, hopefully, they've learned something from the tragedy that took place in Chechnya. MARGARET WARNER: So what did you make when the new or the acting prime minister in Russia, Mr. Putin said this week he was going to put this down in two weeks? PHILIP KOHL: That made me very, very uneasy. It reminded me of the statements made in the outbreak of the Chechen conflict, that it was only going to last for 48 hours, 72 hours and went on for nearly two years. Possibly one could quell this current disturbance in a relatively short time. But the underlying problems, as Ms. Hill has emphasized, will remain. They're economic and deep-rooted. And until those are addressed, I'm afraid this area will remain quite unstable. MARGARET WARNER: Miss Hill, are there any other powers outside of Russia playing in this region in terms of militarily? FIONA HILL: Not militarily. MARGARET WARNER: What I meant-- excuse me. For instance, I know there are lots and lots of guns there. There are lots and lots of weapons. Is there any kind of behind the scenes help that's been given to any of these groups? FIONA HILL: That's not clear. I mean, there have always been rumors about that kind of activity, but I think you have more of a situation of mercenaries -- of guns for hire. And they may be from many different neighboring states or neighboring republics. But they're all joined by a similar common cause of who can pay the most for the hiring of these weapons. MARGARET WARNER: But how do they -- if it's such a poor region, how do they have the money to hire these weapons, to buy these weapons? FIONA HILL: Well, there's always flows of money into this region. Some people are making a very hefty profit off all kinds of things, from drug smuggling to weapons, money laundering. This has become an incredible zone of instability, of corruption. The borders are very porous, and a lot of activity is going on there that should be a real cause of concern, not just for Russia but for all of the neighboring states. MARGARET WARNER: And so, Professor Kohl, would you say that in terms of all kinds of western investment that is going into this general region for oil development, is that a good bet? I mean, is the region stable enough? Can Russia keep a handle on it enough to make this work financially for these companies? PHILIP KOHL: Well, I haven't been privy to any conversations that are being held in executive offices anywhere. But my guess is that people are very apprehensive about this. The Caucasus, when you look at a map, it's a very compressed area. It's just a peninsula stretching between the Black and Caspian Seas. And the situation -- what happens in Chechnya spills over into Dagestan. What happens in Dagestan will spill over further to the South. You can't contain these conflicts entirely. And the instability, I think, is great. The uncertainty, the volatility of the situation cannot be underestimated. So my guess is many people interested in those resources of the Caspian Sea are quite nervous at the moment. MARGARET WARNER: All right. Well, thank you Professor Kohl and Ms. Hill. Thank you both very much. FIONA HILL: Thank you. PHILIP KOHL: Thank you.

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