Online NewsHour: Russia Elections -- July 2, 1996

ROUND TWO

JULY 2, 1996

TRANSCRIPT

After a week of complete absence from public view, a stiff and weary-looking President Yeltsin reappearred to urge Russians to vote for him in today's elections. Questions about the President's health remain, as do concerns that the man Yeltsin would like to see succeed him in the Kremlin, General Alexander Lebed, has little interest in democracy or economic reform. Special correspondent Simon Marks reports on the second round of presidential elections in Russia.

Simon Marks answered your questions in our Russian Online Forum.
Browse NewsHour coverage of:

Election Day, 1996

The aftermath of the June 16 election
Gennadi Zyuganov

The effect of Chechnya on the vote

SIMON MARKS: It was just three weeks ago that Boris Yeltsin astonished his admirers and detractors alike by dancing his way across the nation in the first round of the Russian presidential election campaign. He was spritely, robust, and energetic, seemingly a new man, despite his two recent heart attacks. But today, the old Boris Yeltsin is back, unseen in public for an entire week ahead of tomorrow's crucial vote, heard from in only a handful of television appearances--and in his final, stiff pre-election address to the nation, urging the Russian people to back him nonetheless in the run-off against Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov.
PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN: (speaking through interpreter) I am firmly convinced that the course we have chosen is correct. I know exactly what needs to be done, and I have the strength, the willpower and the decisiveness to do it. What I need now is your support. I'm asking you to set aside your usual activities on July 3rd, go to the polling stations and vote for a new Russia. Only together will we be victorious.
SIMON MARKS: Boris Yeltsin's disappearance from the scene sent the Moscow rumor mill into overdrive. The Kremlin insists the President was merely suffering a cold, but many observers of his final public appearance at this graduation ceremony last Wednesday say the Russian leader appeared unsteady and a little too eager to toast the graduating class of cadets.
Capitalizing on the President's disappearance, his opponent, Gennady Zyuganov. In the second round of campaigning, it's the Communist leader who's been the dancing candidate. In a string of campaign appearances, he's emphasized his vigor and demanded an official government report on the President's medical condition. But in Moscow at least there is little indication that the uncertainty over the President's health will affect the outcome of the election.
WOMAN ON STREET: (speaking through interpreter) As far as I understand it there's something the matter with his voice. It's nothing serious. He did so much during the election campaign I'm sure he'll find the strength to carry on working.
UNIDENTIFIED WOMAN: (speaking through interpreter) It's not just a question of Yeltsin, he's got a strong team and they know what they want and how to get it. His health doesn't worry me.
SIMON MARKS: That Yeltsin team is markedly different now after the President struck a deal with the man who came third in the election's first round. General Alexander Lebed is now Boris Yeltsin's national security adviser and the man the President would like to see succeed him in the Kremlin. Today General Lebed has total access to the Russian leader and is one of a handful of men analysts consider to be a heartbeat away from the presidency. Behind the Kremlin's walls he quickly orchestrated a murky palace coup, persuading Boris Yeltsin to fire his controversial defense minister, seven generals, and three close associates, including his personal bodyguard. With Yeltsin absent from the public eye, General Lebed has been the most visible Kremlin official on the campaign trail, last week causing alarm overseas by lashing out at the West in an appearance before a group of nationalist supporters in Moscow. The General accused the West of polluting Russian culture. He described the Mormons and other religious groups operating here as "mold" and "filth;" he maintained there are just three recognized religions in Russia--Russian Orthodox, Islam, and Buddhism. He told one questioner: "You call yourself a Cossack, but your approach is Jewish." His speech was laced with aggressive nationalism.
GENERAL ALEXANDER LEBED: (speaking through interpreter) We are the most intelligent country in the world. 74 percent of the world's inventions came from Russia. They've been bought, stolen, or lost. But we must always remember that we are the most intelligent and the most wealthy nation, and we have the willpower and the common sense to make a real life for ourselves instead of a shameful, pitiful existence.
SIMON MARKS: The General now says he meant no offense by his remarks and doesn't understand why western officials reacted so negatively to them.
GENERAL ALEXANDER LEBED: (speaking through interpreter) I have very good attitudes toward everyone. I love everyone. I am prepared to be friends with everyone, to trade with everyone, not to argue with anyone, and certainly not to fight them.
SIMON MARKS: But General Lebed has spent his entire life preparing to fight people in defense of the nation. And this past weekend, he evidently felt at home as he watched a celebration marking the anniversary of the formation of a paratroop regiment. In the first round of the elections, the General campaigned on a platform of military reform and law and order. Observers are still scrambling to understand his political outlook in the wake of his sudden rise. But at his campaign headquarters in Moscow there is a sense of quiet confidence that Alexander Lebed is in the government to stay. And General Yuri Popov, who served alongside Mr. Lebed and is now his chief adviser, says there should be no debate about the General's democratic credentials.
GENERAL YURI POPOV, Lebed Adviser: (speaking through interpreter) Lebed firmly believes that he is a democrat. During his whole military service he resolved questions and problems in a democratic way. I'm not saying that he didn't expect people to carry out his orders, or that he's a soft person. He's a tough guy. But he feels strongly when something is right or wrong, and he has an ability to listen to people and draw the right conclusions based on discussions. So in this way he is a democrat.
MIKE McFAUL, Carnegie Endowment: Mr. Lebed would have a hard time defining democracy, what he means by democracy. He knows very little about very few things. Military reform, yes, he knows about that. How to fight a war, he knows about that. How to interact with the outside world--he knows nothing. This guy's only foreign experience, after all, was Afghanistan. He knows very little about economic reform. He doesn't know the difference between a protectionist, nationalist kind of economic policy and a liberal policy. He saw them on the table together, he couldn't tell you the difference. He doesn't know a lot about policy for a guy that occupies such a high position in the Kremlin.
SIMON MARKS: Alexander Lebed may eventually have to fight to maintain his top Kremlin position. Some observers believe that he is of limited usefulness to Boris Yeltsin and may fall victim to the Kremlin's revolving door, which has facilitated the fall from grace of so many other political personalities during the last five years. But Alexander Lebed is critical to Boris Yeltsin's re-election strategy. The president needs the support of Lebed's 11 million first-round voters to secure victory tomorrow. He also needs a high voter turnout to counter the threat from dedicated Communist supporters. With Boris Yeltsin out of the spotlight and neither candidate holding large scale rallies, the second round campaign has failed to excite the public imagination, and the Kremlin is working overtime to overcome voter fatigue. Three weeks ago, 69 percent of voters cast their ballots in the first round of the election. Some analysts think that whether turnout matches that figure tomorrow on what is officially a public holiday will be critical in determining the final result.
MICHAEL McFAUL: If they get 70 percent turnout, like they did in the first round, Yeltsin wins by a landslide. If they get 65 percent, he wins with a fairly comfortable margin. Once it gets to 60 percent, however, the race becomes close. And once we get to 55 percent, Zyuganov starts to actually edge ahead of Mr. Yeltsin. Turnout is going to decide this entire election.
SIMON MARKS: Banners have been hung above the Moscow streets, urging people to fulfill their civic duty and vote. They bear an implicitly pro-Yeltsin message, this one exhorting Muscovites to choose a democratic and renewed Russia. Stores in the capital have all been ordered to display a poster that contrasts the abundance of the present with the shortages of the past. City authorities are threatening to fine storekeepers who refuse to hang the poster in their windows. And the Yeltsin campaign has launched a new series of paid television advertisements reminding Russians of how bad life was in the old days. "The Communists haven't even changed their named," the commentator says. "They won't change their methods." Meanwhile, Communist candidate Gennady Zyuganov has struggled to get his message heard. Last night, Russian television, which has openly backed President Yeltsin, refused to broadcast the Communists' final election advertisement, saying payment wasn't received on time. Most analysts think Boris Yeltsin has done enough to secure re-election. But the campaign has taken a significant physical toll. A month ago Yeltsin aides said the President would vigorously pursue a whole new raft of reforms in his second term in office. The Carnegie Endowment's Michael McFaul says that's no longer on the agenda.
MICHAEL McFAUL: The first thing that President Yeltsin will do is go on holiday. He's a very tired, exhausted man. The second thing he'll do is form a coalition government where I would not be surprised to see Communists, or candidates and ministers sympathetic to the Communist cause in that government, which is to say that this is not going to be a sweeping new start of economic and political reform; this is going to be a lot of business as usual.
SIMON MARKS: Business as usual for as long as Boris Yeltsin can physically maintain his grip on power. Behind the scenes, the struggle to succeed him is already underway. The presidential election campaign that has consumed this country for most of the year has ushered in a new period of instability, even before the final votes are cast.


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