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NEWSMAKER: AMBASSADOR
THOMAS PICKERING
JUNE 4, 1996
TRANSCRIPT
Amb. Thomas Pickering, the United States' representative in Russia, discusses with Margaret Warner the upcoming Russian Elections. On June 16, Russians will have two main choices: President Boris Yeltsin, whose stature has been cut down by Russia's economic troubles, and Gennady Zyuganov, the Communist Party candidate.
MARGARET WARNER: Russia and the United States have a lot at stake in the Russian presidential election on June 16th. The leading contenders
are President Boris Yeltsin and a strong Communist challenger, Gennady Zyuganov. One man who will be watching the return with a special interest is Thomas Pickering, the U.S. ambassador to Russia. He joins us now. Welcome. Give us a flavor, Mr. Ambassador, of what this campaign is like from where you sit. I mean, in what way is it like an American presidential campaign, and what way isn't it?
THOMAS PICKERING, U.S. Ambassador to Russia: In many ways, it's like an American campaign advertising lots of television speeches, barnstorming, traveling the countryside, shaking hands, kissing babies almost, and in many other ways, it's very Russian. There is a very strong kind of overlay of the past, the old Communism, and effort to portray it as new Communism, a very strong interest in democracy is a new way of proceeding. President Yeltsin's very much emphasizing that. Efforts to try to deal with the here and now social problems of the transition, paying back people who've been not paid for three months is a big part of President Yeltsin's campaign.
MARGARET WARNER: These are things the President's done.
AMB. PICKERING: Yeah.
MARGARET WARNER: Now, I gather he is absolutely dominating the media. How complete is that?
AMB. PICKERING: Well, it's, it's very complete. Of course, the media is very friendly to President Yeltsin. Some of it is his media. Others have an opportunity to get on. They have half an hour a day of time. They can pay for extra time but it's very expensive. The print media has opened to many, the Communist Party has probably 150 newspapers of its own, uh, the government is supported probably by another couple hundred or more. So the media is there. The media is heavily dominated by the President's travels but the other candidates are getting on. It's really at the moment a two-candidate race, and we really ought to speak about Zyuganov and Yeltsin in those terms.
MARGARET WARNER: But I mean, is the--is the media only covering President Yeltsin because they're under orders to do so, or is this just self-censorship? What is it?
AMB. PICKERING: I can't tell you because I haven't seen any orders. I suspect that the media is covering President Yeltsin because they find him a presidential candidate of interest. I suspect because the media in part is government, in part is independent, they're dividing their time up. In general, the major media is television. About 95 percent of Russians have access to television, and in general, the--both the government station and the independent stations have very broad coverage and a very heavy focus. Both of them are clearly sympathetic to President Yeltsin.
MARGARET WARNER: But do you think that calls into question the fairness of the election?
AMB. PICKERING: No, I don't. I think that there are essential elements of fairness, including the access I told you about and including the ability to buy time. And I think that that has to be considered.
MARGARET WARNER: Okay. What's at stake for the United States in this election?
AMB. PICKERING: Well, what's at stake for the United States is the future of Russia. It's a seminal election. The President has great power in Russia. The policies the Presidents will pursue are very, very important to us in many ways. I think that our focus is on democracy and reform and Russian integration into the world community. President Yeltsin supports that very clearly. A President Zyuganov, were he to win, and President Yeltsin is certainly leading in the polls now, uh, would from what we understand about from what he and his advisers say pursue different policies, maybe a return to some of the state command of the economy, some of the state direction, uh, an effort perhaps to change some of the reforms, maybe even the nationalization of some of the industries or examples of some of the things that, that we have seen, perhaps more of a nationalist focus in foreign policy.
MARGARET WARNER: Were you surprised at the strength that Zyuganov had and still seems to have?
AMB. PICKERING: I was not. It was clearly evident that in the results of the December 1995 elections for the Russian parliament the Communists showed great strength. This was exaggerated in part by the way the election ran, that you had to get 5 percent or more to get over the hurdles. Many of the democrats were divided among themselves and divided up the vote for that election. This will be a different election in many ways because while there are several competing democratic candidates, increasingly attention is focused on President Yeltsin as the kind of, if you like, banner carrier, the man who has the chance, and I think he's drawing votes now from, from his own strength and from his incumbency.
MARGARET WARNER: So if you were an average Russian, not a diplomat, not someone in the government, not maybe a very successful capitalist, what, what are really the issues that are coming through?
AMB. PICKERING: I would say the issues for Russians both in terms of what we see and in terms of how they respond to polls are social and economic problems, domestic issues. It's the economy; it's money in the pocket. It's what happened to my social support net, and the Communists were very used to that, so there's perhaps more effort there. It's also, interestingly enough, private property. 85 percent of Russians continually tell pollsters that they want to own their home, their apartment, they want a patch of land. Uh, many of them do. Now, 50 percent perhaps are one way or another owners of their own housing. Uh, and that's brought a lot to them. Many people look back with nostalgia on the past, probably those over 50, maybe even some over 35. Younger voters will support Yeltsin. I think that seems to be the direction that we're going. If there's a large turnout--and we expect a large turnout--that probably will help President Yeltsin.
MARGARET WARNER: Now, let's look at Chechnya briefly as a campaign issue. The President, President Yeltsin has said, himself, that he needs to solve that to get reelected. Do you think that's a big issue, and do you think he's done enough to assuage Russian public opinion?
AMB. PICKERING: I think it's an important issue, but I don't think it ranks up there with economic conditions and with social conditions, but it is significant, and President Yeltsin has taken two important steps. He's met with the leadership. He opened himself first to meet with Dudayev. Dudayev was killed. Then he opened himself--
MARGARET WARNER: The Chechen--
AMB. PICKERING: --to meet--the first Chechen leader--with Yander Bayev and met with him. They have resolved on a cease-fire, like a lot of cease-fires, like the Bosnia model. They don't hold the first time. It'll be a struggle to make this hold. Uh, President Yeltsin, nevertheless, extended his, his efforts beyond what people thought was possible a month ago in order to do that, perhaps taken some risks in doing so because some of his own people don't support the direction in which he's going, but he's doing it. I think he's doing it with, with a great deal of determination, and he's doing it out of a sense that the war was a mistake, as he said, perhaps his biggest mistake. It needs to be ended. He wants to end it on terms that do not separate Chechnya from Russia. He seems to have accomplished that at least as far as the cease-fire is concerned, and we'll all watch and wait to see whether the cease-fire holds.
MARGARET WARNER: Do you think President Yeltsin is committed to abiding by the results of this election, whatever they are?
AMB. PICKERING: I believe he is, and at every stage when people have suggested to him postponing the elections to gain whatever short-term advantage that might have held, he stuck with the line, and the important principle that democracy needs to be upheld, its regular elections. It's in the Constitution. It's in their law, and he's going to stay with it. I think even more now that the polls are showing him perhaps having the plurality in the first round of the election, not a majority but a plurality in the first round of the election, he has everything to gain from keeping the elections on time and abiding by the outcome.
MARGARET WARNER: But there are reports, including from the person who's the head of the Carnegie Endowment Office in Moscow, that he has some contingency plans, and if in the first round he's more than five points behind, he may try to delay the second, the runner in July.
AMB. PICKERING: There are reports in Moscow of everything, including all kinds of contingency plans, but what I said about President Yeltsin's determination to stick with the electoral process I think should be the principal guide. That's what he said he's going to do. He's shown every indication, despite the fact that he's got advice from very, very closely placed people next to him not to do this, that he's going to continue on, and I see no reason why he shouldn't since he's clearly at this stage well placed to win.
MARGARET WARNER: Well, thank you, Mr. Ambassador.
AMB. PICKERING: Thanks, Margaret.
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