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| THE CHECHEN CONFLICT | |
 November 18, 1999 
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Members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe admonished Russia over excessive military force towards the breakaway republic of Chechnya. Margaret Warner leads a discussion on the West's reaction to the ongoing conflict.
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WOMAN: (speaking through interpreter) A lot of people ran away to the villages, but my husband and I are stuck here, under the bullets day and night.
SPENCER MICHELS: Russia has come under heavy criticism from abroad for its Chechnya policy. In Istanbul, Turkey today, 54 world leaders gathered for a summit meeting of the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe.
SPENCER MICHELS: Russian President Boris Yeltsin fired back. He says the Chechnya invasion is meant to bring regional stability, and tackle what he called "the cancer of terrorism."
SPENCER MICHELS: Mr. Yeltsin also decried what he called "humanitarian interference" in Russia's internal business. In response, President Clinton cited critics who fear Russia's strategy will backfire, energizing the Islamic rebels and alienating Chechen civilians. He also recalled an incident in 1991, when Yeltsin turned back a coup attempt by hard-line Soviets.
SPENCER MICHELS: Later, Presidents Yeltsin and Clinton met privately for 45 minutes, discussing Chechnya, among other issues. The Russian president walked out of the summit earlier than he had planned. But two hours later, his foreign minister said Moscow agreed to a European review of the situation by inviting the chairman of the OSCE to visit Chechnya. |
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| A war with history | ||||||||||||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: For more on the Chechnya conflict, and the split it's creating between Russia and the West, we turn to Frederick Starr, chairman of the Central Asia Institute at Johns Hopkins University; Martha Olcott, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Dimitri Simes, President of the Nixon Center. Welcome, all of you. Clearly, President Yeltsin did not appreciate being admonished by the West today over Chechnya. Is that the prevalent attitude within the Russian leadership right now that, it's none of the West's business?
MARGARET WARNER: What would you add to that in terms of why the Russian leadership really isn't interested in what the West is thinking right now?
MARGARET WARNER: First of all, let me ask you, Martha Olcott, do you think then the President shouldn't have said anything?
MARGARET WARNER: But do you think this kind of criticism and treaties... I mean, arguments -- the different western leaders tried all different kinds of arguments with President Yeltsin. Do you think they will have any impact in Moscow in terms of how this war is being prosecuted? |
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| East and West ideologies collide | ||||||||||||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: Do you agree with that? FREDERICK STARR: Well, I do agree, but I think you've got to go a step further. Is there anything you can do? The point Dimitri made about information is crucial. Why shouldn't we ask, propose, demand that they double the number of journalists covering this? This is a kind of non-event. MARGARET WARNER: Excuse me. But the point was most western journalists were pulled out of there because most journalists got kidnapped.
DIMITRI SIMES: They were kidnapped by the Chechens, not by the Russians. FREDERICK STARR: Why not, in addition to that, the kind of massive relief effort that was brought to bear in Kosovo, if we're so concerned on humanitarian issues, of problems of refugees, as was clearly the case, we've indicated, in Kosovo, then why not do the same here? It would establish the point that we're trying to make, but in a practical way…namely, that this is really...violates OSCE rules that Russia itself signed. MARGARET WARNER: You're trying to get in here. |
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| Heeding to international concerns | ||||||||||||||||||||
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FREDERICK STARR: With whom? MARTHA OLCOTT: With the Russians. I mean, pushing the Russians... FREDERICK STARR: Whom do they have? MARTHA OLCOTT: That's where I think the OSCE can play a really critical role because if Russia is left to its own devices, then it will define which of the political interlocutors who can come to the table, and it's the Europeans, I think, as well as the leaders in the region, who have some chance of pressuring at least behind the scenes, the Russians to allow all the political factions or most of the political factions of Chechnya to be a part of this discussion. MARGARET WARNER: Do you see any evidence... Yeltsin did agree to let some observers in…but that the Russians -- the Russian leadership is looking for any negotiated political solution out of this right now brokered by outsiders? FREDERICK STARR: Well, there's -- the point about the two-thirds majority support for this, that's absolutely true. And it's passionate. On the other hand, you have Mr. Primakov yesterday saying, "look, you've got to negotiate." You cannot solve this militarily - and presidential candidate - you cannot solve this militarily. Now, that's an interesting question. But then whom do you negotiate with -- because you've de-legitimized all the possible factions on the other side and to get them to work together as is an impossibility, too.
DIMITRI SIMES: Well, there was a very interesting communication in Moscow about three weeks ago with a senior Russian general who was very hard-lined. He was talking how the United States should not express any criticism. But then, of course, he said, you have to realize, we don't want to go all the way to Chechen mountains. We do not know - MARGARET WARNER: In the southern part. |
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| A popular war in Russia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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MARTHA OLCOTT: I think that's a really important point. I think that so much of what's going on in Chechnya was designed to disrupt the status quo that existed since 1996 but there is no endgame that's really within the reach of the Russian military or the Russian political elite. FREDERICK STARR: But there's not an endgame that's in reach of western experts and advisors either. That's the further complication. MARGARET WARNER: Do you think that the Russian leadership, as Dimitri Simes thinks, is already aware of this?
MARGARET WARNER: Just explain that a little more. You were just there. MARTHA OLCOTT: I was there about three weeks ago as well. And this war is really, I think, part of an important process of national reconciliation and national consolidation -- reconciliation among ethnic Russians where the population is really gaining some confidence in their ability to move forward in the future. And in that sense, I agree with everybody, that this past war, the first war was a terrible black mark. The economic crisis was a terrible black mark. And now, as they pull out from these crises and they move towards the transition away from Yeltsin, they want to do some things that seem positive, making a statement that Russians can stand up with pride and be Russians again. And if the West is critical, the West critical. But we're Russians.
MARGARET WARNER: You mean because of the refugee crisis, the pressure that's putting… FREDERICK STARR: Huge crisis. By the way, all the fighters, whether it's a victory or defeat, all the fighters who aren't party to it, will just head to the hills, which are real mountain, just a few miles south of Grozny. And there you can go on, you know, there are valleys that no one will find you in for years. MARGARET WARNER: So, in other words, right now, I mean, the first part, in the North, it's quite flat and the Russian tanks could just move right over. FREDERICK STARR: Down to the river. MARGARET WARNER: And then they came to these cities which they are bombarding and encircling - but you're saying… FREDERICK STARR: They are not cities in a normal sense. Grozny is like Los Angeles. It's very spread out. So, how do you actually occupy it? A terrible problem. |
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| Finding an end game | ||||||||||||||||||||
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DIMITRI SIMES: This is a good point. It is a popular war in Russia; it is a nasty war. But it is popular among ordinary Russians as long as they can do it on the cheap. They will not be able to do it on the cheap endlessly if the objective is military victory. MARGARET WARNER: Even though, for now, they've met almost no resistance. FREDERICK STARR: Of course. Because it's that kind of war. It's a guerrilla war. You withdraw. It's in terms of Moscow - let Napoleon come and then we'll get them on the way out.
DIMITRI SIMES: They need help. FREDERICK STARR: Solution rather than lectures. That is what they need. DIMITRI SIMES: We have to come with a proposal. We have to prepare to mediate. Our moralizing is counterproductive. MARGARET WARNER: So you're saying the U.S. and the West should stay very involved, even though Russia seems to be rejecting it right. FREDERICK STARR: We don't have an exit strategy. If there is a Russian victory, that creates a... or something called a victory, that really creates a mess of one variety. If it's something called a Russian defeat, it's equally complicated. MARGARET WARNER: We have to leave it there. Thank you all three, very much. |
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SPENCER
MICHELS: For two and a half months now, Russian aircraft and artillery
have battered the breakaway Republic of Chechnya. The Russians say they're
firing specifically at Islamic militants in Chechnya, whom they blame
for four deadly terrorist apartment blasts in Russia this September,
and for military incursions into the neighboring Russian Republic of
Dagestan. The Chechen government, however, says the assaults have been
indiscriminate, killing 4,000 civilians, and injuring many more. In
the last few weeks, Russian forces 
have
moved in from the East, North, and West, closing in on the capital of
Grozny. For Grozny residents who are still there, food is scarce, and
emergency functions have long since shut down. 
SPENCER
MICHELS: Meanwhile, some 200,000 refugees have fled to the neighboring
republic of Ingushetia, where the population has swelled 50 percent,
A smaller number of Chechens has gone south into the independent nation
of Georgia. At times, Russian soldiers have shut down the Ingushetia
border, and even shot at the fleeing refugees. After bribing the border
guards, this family says it crossed into safety, fleeing Russian troops.
WOMAN:
(speaking through interpreter) Mostly they kill women and children,
old men. Then they bomb hospitals, markets, the places where people
gather. When the refugees are fleeing, they bomb them and they kill
them.
GERHARD
SCHROEDER, Chancellor, Germany: (speaking through interpreter) My government
condemns terrorism, but massive use of force that mainly hurts civilians
must end. I urge Russia to solve this conflict by political means. 
PRESIDENT
BORIS YELTSIN, Russia: (speaking through interpreter) Security in Europe
is impossible to achieve without Russia, and you have no right to criticize
Russia over Chechnya. Let nobody be fooled, there will be no talks with
bandits and terrorists. We want to bring peace and a political solution
to Chechnya, and to achieve that, we have to wipe out the bandit factions,
wiping out the terrorists or bringing them to trial. 
PRESIDENT
CLINTON: President Yeltsin, one of the most thrilling experiences of
my life, was when you stood up on the tank in Moscow when they tried
to take the freedom of the Russian people away. And your standing there
on that tank said to those people "You can do this, but you'll
have to kill me first." If they had put you in jail instead of
electing you president, I would hope that every leader of every country
around this table would have stood up for you and for freedom in Russia,
and would not said, "well, that is an internal Russian affair that
we cannot be a part of." 
DIMITRI
SIMES, Nixon Center: 67 percent, according to the recent public opinion
poll, 67 percent of all Russians support Yeltsin's war in Chechnya.
It is a popular war. It's very different from 1994, '96, the first Russian
invasion of Chechnya, which was not supported by the Russian people.
But Chechnya was terrible, so lawless, so much terrorism, hijacking,
things which are on the record, that I think the Russian public opinion
went overwhelmingly against the Chechens. 
FREDERICK
STARR, Central Asia/Caucasus Institute: This is vengeance. This is not
entirely a rational campaign. They are settling a score, going all the
way back to Afghanistan, to the first Chechen war. They're very angry.
And therefore, simply to dress them down, even though it's warranted,
isn't probably going to advance the cause at all. It's going to stiffen
their back. So the question is, is there anything beyond dressing them
down in public that will bring any results? I think there are things
that could be done.
MARTHA
OLCOTT, Carnegie Endowment: I think that Clinton's statement was a very
useful one. I think it set some real limits and parameters for the Russians.
It defined what the West saw as unacceptable. It stated that there were
things you couldn't do to your own population, no matter what they did
to the government or... how they imperiled the security of the rest
of the state. I think it was really important that he stressed that
terror doesn't excuse lawlessness or doesn't excuse rampant attacks
on a civilian population. 
DIMITRI
SIMES: Mr. Clinton should get an award for hypocrisy. In 1994/96, he
talked about Russian "civil war" and he compared Yeltsin to
Lincoln. It was ridiculous and preposterous. Now he is talking about
the Russian war in Chechnya after the Russians were attacked by the
Chechens and he tells them how they should not kill innocent civilians.
Do we remember Kosovo? Do we remember Branch Davidians? Can you imagine
a major nation which would allow a territory with fifty or sixty thousand
people, unarmed, no control, no central government, we're not talking
about central government in Moscow, no central government in Grozny
controlling - you know very well why we know so little about the situation
in Chechnya -- all foreign journalists had to run away because they
were subjected to kidnappings and terrorism. And the truth is that the
Russians are learning from what the United States and NATO have done
in Kosovo, but they do not have precision-guided munitions. They don't
have the same kind of electronic surveillance. They are doing what they
know how to do. They try to protect the soldiers who have taken over
the territory. It is tragic. It is barbarian. But Mr. Clinton's moralizing
will find very few followers in Russia.
FREDERICK
STARR: Several did, of course. But this is to ask the Russian government
to give them normal protection. Beyond that, why not... 
MARTHA
OLCOTT: I think it was really critical to open the door for a role for
Europe. And I think that's what President Clinton's statement helped
do, whether he was hypocritical or not. The Chechen dispute really at
this point begs for ways in which the outside world can involve itself
and find ways to pressure Russia to a negotiation table. It may not
work, but this at least creates that is possibility of dialogue. 
MARGARET
WARNER: Are the political and military leaders in Moscow totally in
sync on this? There were a lot of earlier news accounts that suggested
that the military had really taken its bit in its teeth on this and
was driving this. 
DIMITRI
SIMES: We do not know how to finish this war. And what works in our
favor, the Russians do not have a formula for military victory and that
then they may actually ask for some kind of western involvement as an
alibi for their own inability to succeed militarily. 
MARTHA
OLCOTT: I think that the political elite is aware of this. But because
the war is so popular, it would be very, very hard to publicly say that
we'll accept anything other than victory. So much of the blustering
is for domestic consumption because this war is serving very positive
goals for the Russian people. It's allowing them to feel whole in a
way they really haven't felt whole in a long time.
FREDERICK
STARR: You could say the same thing about Germany reoccupying the Rhineland.
This is a nasty war. And the problem is, it's creating a whole series
of secondary and tertiary problems for Russia and not to mention for
the West down the road, and especially in the South... 
MARTHA
OLCOTT: But the next stage can't be the same as this one. They can't
have an easy military victory. They must deal with the entrenched resistance
at some point. And that's going to change public opinion. So what they
need is help or a solution to get from here to an exit strategy. And
that's one where we just don't get much discussion. We're starting to
get some in Moscow about the possible exit strategies. But no one has
a formula for taking…