Cubans -- and Cuban-Americans -- are waiting anxiously for the arrival of Pope John Paul II. How will the papal visit change this island that officially turned away from Catholicism after the successful communist revolution led by Fidel Castro? Charles Krause looks at the potential impact on the impoverished island and its relationship to the U.S.

CHARLES KRAUSE: John Paul II has been Pope for nearly 20 years, and during that time he's visited more than 100 countries, from his native Poland to the United States and even Bangladesh. Yet, he never before visited Cuba. Profoundly conservative and fiercely anti-communist, at least during the early years of his papacy, John Paul II has not shied away from confrontation or controversy. And as a result, the Catholic Church, its doctrine and its politics is now largely shaped in his image.

Even in the twilight of his reign and of his life, John Paul is a commanding figure, almost larger than life. So, it's with keen interest that much of the world will be watching tomorrow when the Pope arrives in Cuba. Once there, he'll meet with Fidel Castro--the world's last ruling Marxist revolutionary. He's a man who, like the Pope, has had a profound impact on the history of the 20th Century, and who, also like the Pope, is used to getting his own way.

JORGE DOMINGUEZ: They are both tough cookies.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Jorge Dominguez is a Cuban-American who heads Harvard's prestigious Weatherhead Center for International Relations. He says that whatever happens this week between Castro and the Pope, it will be a fascinating and an historic encounter.

JORGE DOMINGUEZ: These are two world class figures. They are savvy, they are intelligent, they're worldly. They have been in their jobs for a very long time. These are two veterans who are trying to think about the meaning of their lives, as well as the meaning of the peoples for whom they care.

CHARLES KRAUSE: In Cuba itself, final preparations for the Pope's visit are well underway. He'll celebrate Mass in four separate cities, culminating with what is expected to be the highlight of the trip--a Mass attended by Fidel Castro in Havana's Revolution Square. Some 3000 journalists from around the world will converge on Havana to cover the visit and for what many expect to be a confrontation between God and Marxism, and maybe the beginning of the end of Castro's regime. The encounter and the coverage will be closely scrutinized everywhere, especially in Miami, the capital of Cuba's devoutly Catholic and strongly anti-communist exile community. One of those who'll be watching the Pope's visit--and listening to every word--is Alfredo Duran.

ALFREDO DURAN: I hope that the Pope talks about human rights, individual rights, and the need to establish a dialogue amongst all Cubans to solve the Cuban problem; that there is a need for transition, peaceful transition towards a democracy in Cuba, and that this message will be felt and will be understood not only by the people of Cuba, but also by the Cuban government.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Within the Cuban exile community, Duran is considered a moderate. A veteran of the Bay of Pigs, he spent two years in Castro's jails in the early '60s before being repatriated. Today, he's a Miami lawyer and former chairman of Florida's Democratic Party.

ALFREDO DURAN: This is the first time that a personality as strong as Fidel Castro has a center stage in Cuba, and the impact of that, we don't know exactly what it's going to be, but there is no doubt that its going to start a new dynamic in the Cuban process.

CHARLES KRAUSE: But many other Cubans in Miami do not agree with Duran or share his optimism. At last week's Three Kings Day Parade on Calle Ocho in Little Havana, the prevailing sentiment seemed to be that almost no matter what the Pope says or does, his visit will have little impact on Castro's determination to remain in power.

WOMAN: (speaking through interpreter) More repression, because the people are going to think that the Pope's visit means there's more freedom. Then they will go into the streets, and Fidel will arrest them.

MAN: What the Pope is going to give in the short run is a legitimacy that he doesn't have.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Leading the parade last week and faithfully reflecting the views of her constituents was Miami's Republican Congresswoman, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. Born in Cuba and an outspoken opponent of the revolution, Ros-Lehtinen fears the Pope's message--indeed, his very presence in Cuba--might help soften Castro's international image. That, she says, could undermine U.S. efforts to isolate and bring down the Castro regime.

ILEANA ROS-LEHTINEN: I think that for sure the Pope will blast the U.S. embargo against Castro. That is the normal pitch for the Catholic Church against any embargo, whether it's South Africa, whether it's Haiti, whether it was Bosnia or the Middle East. They're always anti-embargo, except that they happen to be quite vocal about the Cuba embargo, more so than in other places. So we take--we understand that that's what will happen. But we hope that carried with that will be some sort of message saying that people should be free. Unfortunately, the Pope has gone to other countries where there have been similar dictatorships, and has not preached that gospel. So it depends on which Pope shows up in Havana in a few days, the good Pope or the bad--or the status quo Pope. So we're worried about it because it's a great photo op for the dictator, Fidel Castro. He gets to show to the international community that hey, I'm not such a bad guy.

CHARLES KRAUSE: After decades of repressing the Church, Castro issued his surprise invitation for the Pope to visit Cuba during an extraordinary pilgrimage to the Vatican just over a year ago. Many Cuban Americans--and their allies in Washington--have been worried about it ever since. New Jersey Democratic Senator Robert Torricelli even sought a meeting with the Pope to express his concerns.

SEN. ROBERT TORRICELLI: My hope was to quote to him his own remarks against Polish communism, remind him of the experiences he knows all too well, and tell him with a hope and a prayer that he'll do the same thing for the Cuban people; that he and a visit can do what we have been unable to do for years: break down the veil, end this nightmare for the Cuban people. I wish I had had that chance.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Was the fact that he refused to meet with you a bad sign, in your view?

SEN. ROBERT TORRICELLI: The Pope's older. A lot of time has passed. He isn't necessarily well. I don't know if he has that mission any more in his fiber, even if he does in his heart. So it all troubles me.

BISHOP WILLIAM MURPHY: Well, Senator Torricelli is welcome to his own point of view.

CHARLES KRAUSE: William Murphy is the auxiliary bishop of Boston and a key liaison between the Catholic church in Cuba, the Catholic Church in the United States, and the Vatican.

BISHOP WILLIAM MURPHY: The Holy Father is quite intelligent; he knows what is going on in the world. I don't really think he needs to have someone warn him of something of that sort. He knows how to deal with people. And just as when President Castro came to Rome to see him last year and he welcomed him, so President Castro, when the Pope arrives in Havana, is going to welcome him, and that's going to be the basis of the discussion, of the conversation between them. It's not going to be a debate, I don't think. That's not the point. The point is not to score points. The end is to try to make sure that we can have a meeting of minds for the good of the life of the people, which includes the right to religious freedom.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Like other trips the Pope has taken, the Vatican is billing the trip to Cuba as a pastoral visit not a political one. According to Bishop Murphy and others, the goal is to rebuild the Church in Cuba institutionally, not stir up opposition to Castro at a time when the aging revolutionary appears to want a better relationship with the Vatican. Already, the situation for the Church in Cuba is better now than it's been any time since 1961, when most of Cuba's priests and nuns were expelled from the island. In those heady days immediately after the revolution, Castro also closed Cuba's Catholic schools and hospitals, while anyone who attended Church was viewed as counter-revolutionary. According to Jorge Dominguez, that kind of persecution has ended, and the Pope's visit is expected to accelerate the rebuilding process.

JORGE DOMINGUEZ: Some of the consequences of the visit are already in place. Part of the negotiations between Rome and Havana have been to allow the Cuban bishops, even before the Pope's visit, to hold open air Masses, to hold open air religious events; these have been prohibited since the beginning of the revolutionary period. It has become much more possible for the Roman Catholic Church to publish magazines, newsletters, to print materials that are distributed in the churches, and the published items that are not exclusively religious. The magazine of the archdiocese of Havana, for example, in its most recent issue, had a detailed discussion of why the Cuban economy was not working well. So it already has begun to open these circumstances.

BISHOP WILLIAM MURPHY: You know, we need space to be able to teach catechism. We need space in order to be able to visit prisons. It would be wonderful if we could have schools. It would be great if we could have more of a presence of priests and nuns in hospitals, in caring for the sick; that kind of thing would be wonderful and everybody will benefit.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Richard Nuccio was President Clinton's special advisor for Cuba and was last in Cuba three years ago. Now at Harvard, he agrees with Bishop Murphy and others who say that the Pope's visit could have enormous political consequences even if John Paul does not confront Castro head on over political and human rights.

RICHARD NUCCIO: No one believes in Castro and the revolution any longer in the sense of being the future of Cuba. But so far people have only sought individual answers to what their futures will be, either through religion, increase in religious attendance for all the churches---Protestant, Catholic, as well as the Afro-Cuban traditions. Some people are exploring business and profit, some people are pursuing the hedonistic alternatives. But the Pope's visit will raise questions about whether Cubans have a collective need to redefine themselves, to search for a meaning in their lives beyond their individual existence, and that could be dangerous for Castro. It could be wonderful for the future of a peaceful transition in Cuba.

CHARLES KRAUSE: But if Miami's radio talk shows are an accurate barometer, most Cubans in the United States don't believe that Castro is interested in a peaceful transition. "The Pope is going to Cuba to meet the devil," according to one caller. Yet Miami's exile community is deeply divided over how to respond to the Pope's presence in their homeland. Some of the exiles will fly to Havana later this week to show their support for the Pope and for religious freedom, while others vow never to return to Cuba until Castro is out of power. Last month, there were protests and demonstrations aimed at those planning to go, and there will be more in the days ahead. One of them--a prayer vigil tonight--will be led by Rafael Penalver, a lawyer and devout Catholic. Penalver, whose father was Fidel Castro's personal physician, remembers the day 37 years ago when his family's hope for a pluralistic revolution came to a bitter end.

RAFAEL PENALVER: I'll never forget when I was a fourth grader in Cuba and Castro's militiamen intervened the school that I attended. They came into the classroom and they took the crucifix that stood at the front of the class that we had prayed to every day, and they told us, close your eyes and ask God for an ice cream. Of course, we all did, and when we opened our eyes, there was no ice cream. They took the crucifix, broke it, threw it on the floor, and then they replaced it with a picture of Fidel Castro and they said now, ask Fidel for an ice cream. We're all going to work together. And the militiamen came out and handed ice cream. That kind of message has been constant in Cuba.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Yet, despite the repression, the open air masses that have preceded the Pope's visit demonstrates that Castro never succeeded in wiping out religious faith in Cuba.

Now, at least for the moment, he's stopped trying. But why Castro changed his mind, and why he invited John Paul II to Cuba now, remains a fascinating mystery, a mystery with both religious and political implications for Cubans in Cuba; for Cuban exiles in Miami; for the Pope; for the Catholic Church; and, not least, for the policies and the government of the United States.