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| A CHANGING MEXICO | |
 July 15, 1997 
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JIM LEHRER: Four views now; those of Former Secretary of State James Baker; Mexican writer Enrique Krauze -- his latest book is Mexico: Biography of Power; James Jones, the U.S. ambassador to Mexico in the first Clinton term; and Jorge Dominguez, director of the Center for International Affairs at Harvard -- he was born in Cuba, came to the United States in 1960. Secretary Baker, how would you characterize the importance of what's happening in Mexico right now? JIM LEHRER: A change from what to what, Secretary Baker? JAMES BAKER: Well, a change from one-party autocratic rule for 68 years to a multiparty democracy. I don't think there's any putting this genie back in the bottle. I think that you're going to see now a true multiparty democracy take root in Mexico. What we have to hope, in my view at least, is that we don't have a reversal of some economic reform as a consequence of the fact that we now have more factions in the legislative bodies that could conceivably band together to try and reverse some of the economic reforms that Mexico has experienced. |
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JIM LEHRER: Mr. Krauze, would you agree with the Mexican newspaper that said, "At last, we are arriving at democracy?" ENRIQUE KRAUZE: Yes. And for one reason. Because those two experiments -- the one of the 19th century and one in the beginning of the 20th century -- that ended up in military takeovers -- had one problem; we did not -- we didn't have the citizen, which is the true protagonist of democracy. Now we have immense -- enthusiastic participants majority in Mexico. We just understood finally that Mexico has to end -- finish the 20th century as a normal democracy. |
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JIM LEHRER: Mr. Dominguez, what is your reading of what the Mexican people were voting for or against in this election last week? JIM LEHRER: And so it wasn't ideological per se, is that what you're saying? JIM LEHRER: Ambassador Jones, you were there. You were observing this. As an outsider looking on, and observing this campaign, what is your analysis of what caused this to happen? How did that information get to the people, and how did they make this decision?
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JIM LEHRER: And who's telling them that this is possible? In other words, where is all of this coming from? Is it coming from -- is it coming from the bottom up, or is it coming from politicians down? JIM LEHRER: As Mr. Krauze said, that's the basis of a democracy. JIM LEHRER: Secretary Baker, why are you concerned about the economic -- what causes you to be concerned about the economic thing? JAMES BAKER: Well, I think we have to -- the only concern I have, Jim, is that there -- you have a lot of factions now. And, as one of your guests has just -- has just stated -- this vote was a vote against the PRI more than it was a vote for anything else. We've got -- you've got the PRD here that is not -- JIM LEHRER: That's Cardenas's party from the left, right? JAMES BAKER: That's Cardenas's party that's not really --has not in the past at least been exuberant about -- about economic reform. And you have a number of old dinosaurs of the PRI left, and is conceivable, I think, that those two factions could get together to stall some privatization efforts, or to subvert some of the -- some of the economic reforms that are planned, or that have actually taken place. We don't know what's going to happen yet, and the jury is still out on that. And that's the source of my concern. I have to say, though, I think that if you have a more prosperous Mexico, as we've had with the economic reforms, and a more democratic Mexico, as we now have with the political reforms, you're going to have a more stable Mexico, and that can't be anything but good for this hemisphere and for the world. JIM LEHRER: Mr. Krauze, what about -- how do you feel about this economic concern? JIM LEHRER: Mr. Dominguez, Cardenas and Zedillo, what kind of relationship, what kind of power sharing, what kind of whatever is -- can we expect from those two men over the next several months and few years until 2000, when there's another election? JORGE DOMINGUEZ: I think it would be difficult, frankly. It will be Cardenas's city as governor of the federal district. It is also the president's city because that is the city from which he governs Mexico. Cardenas is positioning himself to run for president in the year 2000, and thinks that he finally has a chance at winning. Zedillo is a lame duck, cannot run for reelection. The intertwining of the national government and the city government is also a new ball game. This is the first time there is an elected independent government in Mexico City. It may well work out but it has never been done before. Zedillo and Cardenas would have to demonstrate a great deal of statesmanship and goodwill to create a new relationship between this gigantic city and the national government. Can they do it? Yes, of course, they can. They are both very bright; they are both very talented. But they are really inventing a relationship that has never existed before. JIM LEHRER: Does Cardenas have any motivation to get along with Zedillo? |
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JIM LEHRER: Ambassador Jones, how do you read Cardenas versus Zedillo? JAMES JONES: Well, I think they're going to learn to get along. JIM LEHRER: Do they have any choice? JIM LEHRER: Mr. Krauze, just -- just spiritually, what has this done for the average Mexican? ENRIQUE KRAUZE: I am amazed the -- of the enthusiasm that you find when you go into streets and to taxi drivers, and everywhere you go, you simply feel that after so many years of bad news, bad news of Mexico to the world, bad news of Mexico to one's self, we have been the country of drug trafficking and corruption and political assassinations, and suddenly the horizon opens, the skies are blue again in a way. We are not naive about that. We know that we have to build our democracy, but here we are. We have opened a new era, and we have done it ourselves. So I think we will -- we will keep up this momentum. JIM LEHRER: And you see it the same way, Secretary Baker, looking-- JAMES BAKER: Yes, I really do, Jim, and following up on that, I want to repeat something that Amb. Jones said -- and that is I think President Zedillo deserves an awful lot of credit for what's happened here. If you remember last year, he was trying to implement some electoral reforms and some privatization measures, and he was beaten by some of the dinosaurs in his own party, and yet, it was the electoral reforms that he was able to get through that has enabled this to happen. JIM LEHRER: All right. And you agree with that, Ambassador. JAMES JONES: Absolutely. JIM LEHRER: All right. And we have to leave it there. Gentlemen, thank you, all four, very much for being with us. |
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JAMES
BAKER, Former Secretary of State: I think, Jim, it is very, very important,
and I don't think it's an overstatement to say it represents a real
sea change in Mexican politics. I think it is fundamental and it now
means that Mexico is not only on the path of economic reform but I think
is well on the path of political reform. I think it's very, very meaningful,
very important.
ENRIQUE
KRAUZE, Author: Absolutely. I think it is really a historical change
we have been living this year -- these days. Mexico has not only been
an autocracy for 68 years. In fact, it has been an autocracy for almost
all its history. We were a theocracy during the times of the Aztecs,
an absolute monarchy during the three centuries of Spanish rule. Then
came a century and a half of the rule or domination of the caudillos
in Mexican history, and then of the almighty Mexican presidents. During
all those centuries we had only 11 years of true democracy, in the half
of the 19th century a few months, in the beginning of the 20th century,
and now at last, we have true democracy. That is civil liberties, real
elections, clean elections, and balance of power. I think really this
is a historic moment.
JIM
LEHRER: Do you agree that it's irreversible? Do you agree with the secretary;
that it can't be put back in the bottle?
JORGE
DOMINGUEZ, Harvard University: They were voting no to the continued
uninterrupted and unchallenged rule of the Institutional Revolutionary
Party, the PRI. It really was striking to watch how many people in answer
to public opinion polls would agree with the proposition that they would
vote for anyone but the PRI. The other noteworthy feature of this campaign
is that the share of voter preferences for the PRI remained almost stable
for the entire campaign. What you had was the Mexican voters in the
opposition deciding they no longer wanted the PRI to govern alone and
to control all the national institutions, looking out to see which of
the two opposition parties had a better chance at defeating the PRI.
So the election campaign was fought mainly between the two opposition
parties and they're the party left -- the Party of the Democratic Revolution
-- the PRD -- really won the lion's share of the vote and improved its
participation dramatically. So it was no to the PRI, not quite clear,
yes to what.
JORGE
DOMINGUEZ: Quite right. It was really non-ideological. It was really
no to the PRI and then I'm going to choose the party that has the best
chance of defeating the PRI even if I'm not sure I agree with its policies.
The opposition fought mainly for democracy, for corruption, against
abuse. It was not a very detailed program of a set of economic policies.
That is really quite unclear. Nor do I think Mexican voters voted for
anything more precise than the word "change."
JAMES
JONES, Former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico: Well, I think the first step
was the economic reform. And that opened up the whole system and that
following from that were the demand for political reforms. Following
from this will be demand for legal reforms. And those are the three
prongs or foundations of first world status which most Mexicans are
really wanting to achieve.
JAMES
JONES: I think it's coming from two sources, from top down, starting
with President Zedillo. I think he has not been given all the credit
that he deserves for demanding these political reforms. Three years
ago the elections were conducted honestly. And when Zedillo came in,
what he demanded is that the process be fair, not just honestly conducted.
And that's what happened with the reforms that were put through. That's
one part of it. The other is bottoms up. For the first time in my thirty-one
years of dealing with Mexico, average Mexicans feel they really have
power. They have the power of the electorate very similar to what American
citizens feel.
JAMES
JONES: That is the basis, and what you find -- and the reason I am not
worried -- as Secretary Baker brought up -- rightly so -- I'm not worried
that the clock is going to be turned back on economic reforms because
the political parties, the opposition as well as the PRI, are listening
to the electorate, and the electorate wants to move forward with these
economic reforms.
ENRIQUE
KRAUZE: I'm not that afraid about what has been the -- there are some
businessmen here and bankers, for instance, who have thought that perhaps
we are going to have great changes. I don't think the economic model
is going to change, first of all, because we are living -- to be in
the left after ‘89 is different from being in the left before ‘89. The
people in the PRD and Cardenas, in particular, are moderate people.
They have sensibility towards social issues, but they acknowledge the
fundamental changes that the world has been going through in the last
decade, and I don't think they are going to reverse. They are not now
in a position to reverse because they are -- Cardenas is not a president
of Mexico. But even if in the year 2000 he becomes president, I am positive
that he is going to be president according to the times. He might introduce
some nuances, some changes, some -- changes of degree, but not of substance.
I think the economic model is here to stay.
JORGE
DOMINGUEZ: Well, in order to run credibly for the presidency in the
year 2000 Cardenas really needs to demonstrate that he is a reasonably
competent executive. He cannot be a competent, effective mayor of Mexico
City, governor of a federal district, if he is undercut, undermined,
and opposed by the president and the national government. The new city
government is fragile. It is not very well defined. Cardenas has been
in the opposition for all of these years. He doesn't have a governing
team. If he really fights the president head on, he will probably have
a poor record running the city on which to run for president in the
year 2000. So Cardenas does have an incentive to reach out and in order
to govern the city more effectively.
