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| OPPOSITION GAINS GROUND | |
 July 7, 1997 
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CHARLES KRAUSE: Now, two views on the Mexican election. Juan Enriquez is a former member of the PRI who's held a number of top government positions both in the Mexico City government and at the federal level. He's currently a visiting fellow at Harvard University's Center for International Affairs. And George Grayson, a professor of government at the College of William and Mary, who's written extensively on Mexico's political system, he's just back from Mexico City, where he served as an observer monitoring yesterday's election. Gentlemen, welcome. Professor Grayson, you were there. In your judgment, what was most significant about the elections?
CHARLES KRAUSE: Did you get the sense from the people that you talked to yesterday that they felt that they were participating in something historic?
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| Punishment
for President Salinas? |
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CHARLES KRAUSE: Juan Enriquez, you worked for President Salinas in several different positions. Do you think that that's what yesterday's election was about, punishing the former president?
GEORGE GRAYSON: Well, the Mexican electoral system has been hugely reformed over the past nine years, and especially under the presidency of Ernesto Zedillo, and so now votes are counted; they're counted fairly; and whoever wins is able to assume the public -- the position of public trust to which he's been elected. That wasn't the case as recently as 1988 when the great majority of Mexicans interviewed believed that, in fact, Salinas won his election through fraud not because the people had supported him. So there have been major electoral reforms. Also, the media is much freer, and society in general is enjoying a substantial opening in Mexico. |
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| Voter independence | ||||||||||||||||||||
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CHARLES KRAUSE: Juan Enriquez, would you agree with the professor's analysis that these various changes are what now contribute to the outcome?
CHARLES KRAUSE: That's the conservative opposition party. JUAN ENRIQUEZ: Exactly. And they've been very good at showing that they can govern; that they can govern in some cases better than others; but that they can take control and nothing drastic will happen. And I think the PRD, the leftist party, has also played a very constructive role in mediating some of the very serious conflicts that Mexico's had in places like Chiapas or, you know, despite extreme repression and problems. CHARLES KRAUSE: You know Mr. Cardenas, you've watched his career over the last ten/fifteen years. Tell what, what does he stand for? What exactly does it mean to be a leftist in Mexico?
CHARLES KRAUSE: The Spanish socialist. JUAN ENRIQUEZ: The Spanish socialist who came in and was able to increase Spain's standard of living and push through a series of reforms while taking care of a lot of social issues. |
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| NAFTA's impact on the election | ||||||||||||||||||||
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CHARLES KRAUSE: Professor Grayson, from what you know of what Mr. Cardenas said, would he be a critic, for example, of the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, between the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Would he -- does he represent real change, especially in terms of the issues the United States is most concerned about?
CHARLES KRAUSE: So you're saying that he does not really represent a threat to the basic relationship between Mexico and the United States. GEORGE GRAYSON: Well, it's five months before he takes office and, in fact, the mayorship of Mexico City is largely a ceremonial post, but it does give him a bully pulpit from which to seek the presidency in the year 2000. It remains to be seen whether he will backslide to the statist, big government protectionist policies that were associated with his party when it commenced and were associated with his -- with his posture within the PRI, which he was a member until 1987, or if he will prove to be a modern leftist nationalist. And if I had to bet, I think he will continue to move to the center, will recognize that Mexico can't isolate itself from the rest of the world; that NAFTA is, indeed, a step in the right direction; and that Mexico must play a role in the global economy if you're going to uplift half of the population who live as rag pickers in fettled slums and in rural towns. CHARLES KRAUSE: Juan Enriquez, quickly, would you agree with that assessment, he'll move to the center?
CHARLES KRAUSE: Now, do you think that given that he has one and that he's already said he's planning to run for president in the year 2000, do you think that the PRI is just going to roll over and let him sort of become a good mayor, a good governor, and build up his credibility and win in the year 2000? JUAN ENRIQUEZ: I think you have a real danger that the hard line elements in the PRI are going to create a backlash on this. People like the minister of the interior and a series of other people in the PRI really have pushed very hard to take the PRI back to where it was. And I think the president is going to have to make some changes in the PRI and in this cabinet to push forth the openness of the selections that he's been able to so far maintain, and I think that that's a very good sign. The other thing that's going to have to happen is the PRD and the PAN, the left and the right, are going to have to come together in congress, change the rules on coalition building, and make sure that they can work together so that the PRI doesn't play the divide and conquer strategy. CHARLES KRAUSE: Thank you. We're going to have to leave it there. Juan Enriquez and Professor Grayson, thank you very much. |
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GEORGE
GRAYSON, College of William and Mary: Well, the old adage is that a
democracy exists in Mexico 364 days a year and that it's only absent
on election day. And I think after yesterday's extremely clean and tranquil
elections, the Mexicans believe that they now have democracy year-round.
GEORGE
GRAYSON: Well, in Mexico City, where I spent the day at various voting
places, I had the real sense that they wanted to punish the PRI that's
been in power for almost 70 years, and there was a particular amount
of animus directed toward the last president, Carlos Salinas. There
is a tradition in Mexico that if at midnight on Easter eve you burn
a Judas doll, and the Judas dolls are usually red paper-mache figures
that look like the devil, then you strike a blow against evil and for
good. This year in the Mexico City market during the Holy Week the dolls
that were selling like hot cakes, in fact, resembled former President
Salinas, although they added some fangs. Salinas, of course, had promised
to propel Mexico from the third world tot he first world, but soon after
he left, Mexico suffered the worst economic disaster in recent memory
and the last couple of years we've all watched a tragi-comedy unfold
that involves him; his brother, who's in prison, and charges of corruption.
So my sense is the people really wanted to punish the PRI and specifically
Salinas, for whom they blame many of the country's current problems.
JUAN
ENRIQUEZ, Former Mexican Official: I think yesterday's election was
an election that was both for and against. It was certainly against
a series of unresolved promises. This government had promised to give
people security. It had promised people that their family life would
improve. It had promised that things were going to get better and that
they knew how to make it better. And that has certainly not been the
case for the past three years. The incomes in Mexico dropped. We've
had a series of significant uprisings in the South of the country. But
you've also had some very good things happening, and those good things
have been happening because civil society has been taking hold of politics
from the PRI. So in the North of the country and in the center of the
country, where people have been taking control of the media, where people
have been taking control of the electoral councils, I think the really
interesting question in this election is why hadn't the PRI lost before,
given that you've had four regimes where the economy had dropped at
the end of every--and it took a long time, but I think Mexico is now
getting ahold of its own politics, and I think that's very positive.
CHARLES
KRAUSE: Well, let me ask Professor Grayson that question. Why do you
think it took this long for the voters in Mexico to apparently turn
against the PRI? 
JUAN
ENRIQUEZ: I think those are certainly some of the factors that are going
on. I think people now also feel a lot more confident in their ability
both to take control of their own lives, because they figure things
have gotten to the point where they can do it themselves, and also the
opposition has presented I think a far more organized and better strategy.
It's not just an opposition that's out there attacking the government.
It's an opposition that's out there and actually trying to build things.
You have the PAN in several northern states demonstrating-- 
GEORGE
GRAYSON: Charles, he was a vehement critic some years ago of the whole
idea of North American integration, claiming that the gringos would
take advantage of the Mexicans. During this campaign, though, he not
only began smiling, which he didn't do in previous campaigns, but he
also moved decidedly to the center. He endorsed the magic of the marketplace
and said that NAFTA might need some fine tuning but by no means should
be scrapped. And I would look for him to follow the path of other nationalists,
leftists, who may handle power the same way that you play a violin.
You may grasp it with the left hand but actually stroke it with the
right hand. 
JUAN
ENRIQUEZ: I think he will because I think the way of generating jobs
and I think the way of quelling part of the violence that's going on
in Mexico is to build up the economy. He also has to build a coalition
of the PAN, particularly for the Northern states, and the PAN has to
build a coalition with him for the Southern states. And I think if they
come together, they're going to form a very effective front to the PRI
after the year 2000 presidential election.