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IRAQ'S WEAPONS CAPABILITIES In accepting the terms of the 1991 Gulf War cease-fire, Iraq's leaders agreed to "destroy or render harmless" all weapons of mass destruction. Iraq's continued refusal to allow unfettered United Nations weapons inspections has made it a challenge to know what weapons Saddam Hussein has at his disposal. While exact details are not available, the U.N., the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, among others, have credible evidence of certain activity within Saddam's Iraq. According to the CIA, Iraq has "rebuilt key portions of its chemical production infrastructure for industrial and commercial use, as well as its missile production facilities." The CIA also notes that Iraq has attempted to acquire a wide range of "dual-use" materials, ostensibly for legitimate civilian use, that could be used in the development of weapons of mass destruction. The U.N. also has photographic evidence of former weapons facilities Iraq has rebuilt; the unconfirmed suspicion is that they have been rebuilt for renewed weapons development purposes. CHEMICAL
WEAPONS Iraq's chemical weapons program began in the 1970s, long before the convention, and production of actual weapons began in the 1980s. By 1983, during the Iran-Iraq War, the Iraqis had begun to use chemical agents including mustard gas and tabun against the Iranians. Data from the National Security Council shows 10 instances between 1983 and 1988 where Iranians and Kurds were targeted with the agents, resulting in thousands of casualties. Iraq is believed to have rebuilt key parts of its chemical production facilities in the wake of the Gulf War. With no U.N. inspectors in the country since 1998, it is widely believed that such rebuilding has gone unchecked. The Iraqis have also attempted to garner elements -- ostensibly for civilian use -- that could also be used to develop chemical warfare weapons. Defense expert John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, notes that Iraq is known to have developed and stockpiled supplies of nerve gases tabun and sarin. GlobalSecurity's most recent information suggests tabun supplies have diminished from 250 to 210 tons. Iraq is believed to be in possession of 790 tons of the colorless, odorless gas sarin, which is lethal with a dose of .5 milligram. Experts at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies concur, believing Iraq has the precursor chemicals necessary for the production of hundreds of tons of mustard gas and VX, among other agents. In 1998, U.N. inspectors uncovered evidence of the nerve agent VX — methylphosphonothioic acid — in missile warheads. The discovery came after seven years of Iraqi denials it possessed weaponized VX. UNSCOM disposed of 38,500 chemical weapons, including shells, warheads and bombs, 690 tons of chemical weapons agents, 3,000 tons of precursor chemicals and 426 pieces of chemical production equipment. UNSCOM reports, however, show that Iraq had roughly 100,000 chemical weapons at its disposal during the Iran-Iraq War, and a significant portion was not accounted for at the time of the U.N.'s departure in 1998. NUCLEAR
WEAPONS Iraq began its nuclear weapons program in the early 1970s, and it was heavily damaged in 1991 during coalition bombing in Operation Desert Storm. All known weapons-grade fissile material, needed for the creation of a nuclear device, was removed from the country during the UNSCOM inspections, but in the intervening years between the end of U.N. inspections in 1998 and today, experts believe the program has been resumed. According to research from Jane's Information Group, the Iraqi regime is thought to have roughly 7,000 nuclear engineers, scientists and technicians capable of rebuilding the nuclear program. It is believed Iraq had at least 10,000 personnel working on the nuclear program prior to the invasion of Kuwait, with a multi-year budget of approximately $10 billion. Suspicion persists that Iraq would become nuclear-capable should they obtain the necessary weapons-grade enriched uranium from a foreign source. Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies believe Saddam Hussein's scientists are attempting to develop their own enriched uranium, and that they could be successful in as little as three to six years. Center for Nonproliferation Studies' analysts agree Iraq currently have the wherewithal to assemble a nuclear weapon with enough uranium or plutonium, and believe Iraq is attempting to procure these materials from illicit foreign sources. Khidhir Hamza, a high-ranking Iraqi scientist who defected to the U.S., said Saddam's nuclear program infrastructure is spread among dozens of small corporations with each group responsible for different portions of development. Hamza estimates Iraq will have three to five nuclear weapons by 2005, and believes Iraq already has twelve tons of uranium and 1.3 tons of low enriched uranium.
BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS Although UNSCOM destroyed the main Iraqi biological weapons production facility, significant amounts of agents were not disposed of, and it is unclear what Iraq has done with these agents since the U.N. left in 1998. The Iraqi government claimed to have produced 8,400 liters of anthrax, 19,000 liters of botulinum, and approximately 2,000 liters of clostridium and aflatoxin prior to their invasion of Kuwait. While a vast amount of this was destroyed by UNSCOM, some remained unaccounted for at the time of the inspectors' departure. According
to General Wafiq al-Samerai, a senior Iraqi defector, Saddam had at
his disposal, "255 containers of biological agents. In 230, the
agent is in powder form, with no expiry date, and in 25 it is the liquid
form, which will deteriorate." -- By Jessica Moore, Online NewsHour |
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