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| ELECTIONS IN IRAN | |
 May 8, 2000  |
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| Political guerilla warfare | |||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: Daniel Pipes, do you see this as guerilla warfare, political guerilla warfare at least?
MARGARET WARNER: Professor Banuazizi, explain what you think the conservatives were trying to do the last few weeks arresting outspoken dissidents, shutting the newspapers, now threatening to invalidate some elections, invalidating others. What are they really up to here? ALI BANUAZIZI, Boston College: Well, if you're going to stick to that
analogy of guerilla warfare, I think here is a case where the guerillas
clearly are in the majority and they have spoken time and again in three
consecutive elections each time quite eloquently with over 70% of the
votes cast in favor of the reform candidates. On the other side, we
have an entrenched minority, the clerical establishment, that has been
extremely nervous about its own fate, about the possibilities of continuing
to remain in power, and has resorted to all kinds of counter guerilla
tactics including serial murders, closing of newspapers and a variety
of other extra-constitutional means to thwart the reform movement. |
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| How far will the conservatives go? | |||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: Daniel Pipes, how far do you think the conservative hardliners will go to thwart this? In other words, do you think they might try to annul the Tehran seats in the election? Do you think they might try to actually keep a majority of reformers from taking their seats in parliament?
MARGARET WARNER: Elaine Sciolino, do you agree they'd go this far?
MARGARET WARNER: Professor, how do you see this question of how far the conservatives will push this in terms of trying to really overturn the will of 70% of the voters?
MARGARET WARNER: That's my next question but go ahead. ALI BANUAZIZI: And how can they go down that path? So far and particularly since the last elections in February, the restraint shown by the reformists has been really quite remarkable. Time and again, the president has urged his followers not to push the hands of the hardliners and not to give them an excuse to annul the elections or possibly even stage a coup d'etat. And I think given the level of mobilization, given the level of frustration suffered by the majority of the people again, I would contend, it is really quite remarkable the level of maturity exhibited here is quite remarkable. So undoubtedly the path to change is going to be a very torturous one, but let's keep in mind that the path to change in other countries, including, for example, Russia, has not been any easier and less torturous. MARGARET WARNER: Let me just ask you to explain one thing to us, particularly to an American audience: Where does the guardian council get the authority to say "trump" the voters? In other words is that in the constitution? Is it because the supreme leader, the ayatollah, ultimately has the ultimate power?
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| A strategy for the medium term | |||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: I'm sorry. But let me get on to Daniel Pipes because I want to get back to him. ALI BANUAZIZI: Sure.
DANIEL PIPES: I do indeed agree that it is by far the best strategy. Were the reformers to act in a hot-headed way, then the full force of the hardliners would fall on them and we would be crushed perhaps. But right now they're playing a savvy game and they're getting quite far. I also agree with Ms. Sciolino's point, which I think is a very profound one that nobody is trying undo the Islamic republic. There's different visions to keep it going. It's a little bit like Gorbachev and his hardliners. Everybody wants to keep it going. Nonetheless the fact is that the reforms that Gorbachev unleashed were reforms that Khatami would want to release are in the end probably fatal for the system. So it's in our interest and no matter how much they want to keep it going. Whatever the motives are that, in fact, they unleash these reforms. Yes, they've been doing it in an intelligent way. MARGARET WARNER: And, staying with you for a minute, Mr. Pipes, how does the trial of these Iranian Jews fit into this picture? In other words, what purpose do these trials serve for the hardliners?
MARGARET WARNER: Elaine, so how do you see in the medium term the reformist forces regrouping here? I mean, what do you think they're going to do?
MARGARET WARNER: Professor, brief last word: Would you expect this new parliament to take office? ALI BANUAZIZI: I believe so. By the end of May, God willing. MARGARET WARNER: So you're willing to make that fearless prediction? Professor? ALI BANUAZIZI: Yes. MARGARET WARNER: All right. Thank you all three very much. |
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MARGARET
WARNER: For more on all this, we turn to Ali Banuazizi, who was born
in Iran and came to the U.S. in 1959. He is now a professor of modern
Iranian history at Boston College; Elaine Sciolino, who's covered Iran
for 20 years for the New York Times. Her forthcoming book is "Persian
Mirrors: The Elusive Face of Iran." And Daniel Pipes, editor of the
Middle East quarterly, and director of Middle East Forum, a nonprofit
group that tries to promote U.S. interests in the Middle East. Welcome,
all. Elaine, we had two conflicting things this weekend: The reformers
won big again at the polls. Then the guardian council turns around and
says, boy, even though the election results from last February in Tehran
may not be valid because of fraud. What do you make of this? How are
we to look at all of this? 
ELAINE
SCIOLINO, New York Times: Margaret, the best way to look at it is to
see Iran as a series of battlefields and the reformers are the guerilla
warriors on this battlefield. And you've just seen another round in
this great struggle but it's an open-ended system and it's an open-ended
war. Just as you've got the guardian council saying, "we have not validated
some of the election results," you've got the ministry of the interior
saying, "this is all baloney and these results should be validated."
You've had one member of the guardian council today said in an interview
that the reformists should take their positions in Tehran. So, stay
tuned. 
DANIEL
PIPES, Middle East Forum: It's a nice analogy, yes. The power is with
the hardliners. It's those reformers who are expressing the people's
will who are attempting through various means, guerilla-style means,
to change the existing order. So far they're not getting very far but
momentum is on their side. In the long-term, they're probably going
to prevail. In the long term they will prevail. In the short term it
looks pretty rough. 
DANIEL
PIPES: Absolutely. They've got a big bag of tricks. As Professor Banuazizi
pointed out, they've already used a few of them -- extra-legal, spontaneous
in some cases ways of resisting the expressed will of the people of
these elections. They have the power; let's face it. They're in a position
to keep on doing this for a long time to come, and I'm very optimistic
about Iran for the long term. There's no way this regime is going to
stay in power decade after decade but short term they've got the judiciary,
the military, the intelligence, the economic institutions, the mass-media
institutions, they've got the power. 
ELAINE
SCIOLINO: I think it can be portrayed a little bit more complicated
than this. I mean, both of my friends and colleagues have made a couple
of very interesting points, but the fact is who's got the power and
to what end? Does anybody who has the power want to see bloodshed in
the streets, violent demonstrations, and I would argue no. I mean, the
goal of both the reformists under president Khatami and Ali Khameni,
the ayatollah who is the supreme leader, is the durability and permanence
of this Islamic system. No one is saying, "let's get rid of the Islamic
republic. Let's go on out into the streets and have a secular democracy."
There is not a cry for a new revolution so in the end I would say that
the goal of both the important leaders in the country -- the president
and the supreme leader -- who control different institutions of government
-- is exactly the same. I would agree with Ali that there is a entrenched
minority that wants to keep the status quo and the version of Islamic
rule as Iran has known it for 20 years, but it's the minority. 
ALI
BANUAZIZI: One could, of course, turn the question around and ask how
far are the liberals or the reformists going to or are willing to go?
ALI
BANUAZIZI: Well, the guardian council has been given the charge of protecting
the country and the state and Islam against all kinds of challenges,
and it has very broad powers which it has interpreted even more broadly,
including career meddling in the electoral affairs of the country. So
the constitution at this point is vague enough to allow the guardian
council to exercise the kinds of extra-judicial, extra-constitutional
authority that has been exercised. But there are other factors. I would
only mention one. 
MARGARET
WARNER: And comment on the professor's point that the reformers have
played it a very smart game here encouraging their supporters not to
go in the streets and not to demonstrate. Do you agree with him that
that really in the medium term is the best strategy? 
DANIEL
PIPES: It is a way of isolating the country from the outside and isolating
the reformers from the outside. It's a little bit analogous to 22 years
ago when the hard liners took over the American embassy. This called
a revulsion outside, created a breach with the foreign countries and
allowed the hardliners to increase their power within. So it is with
the Iranian Jews on trial today with this kangaroo trial, now five of
them have confessed. It's an internal power play. And I think more broadly
we should see the argument that's going on between these two broad factions
as an internal, domestic Iranian debate with very few elements of foreign
policy involved. They're not talking about the Arab-Israeli peace process,
not talking about weapons of mass destruction, not talking about terrorism
and not talking about improving relations with the United States. That's
not the center of gravity. It is how things work in Iran. 
ELAINE
SCIOLINO: I'd like to come back first to something that Dan said about
the trial of the Jews because I don't think we can underestimate the
importance, the real symbolic importance of this kind of trial and its
impact on the international community. Confessions in Iran are nothing
new. They're emblematic of a dark side, a repressive side that continues
even today despite the reformist trends, despite the transparency, the
move towards democracy, the rule of law. There are centers within centers
in Iran. I would argue you can't speak of an Iranian regime anymore
or an Iranian rule. There are different power centers with different
levels of authority and influence. And I think that that is going to
continue to play out in this struggle. That's why it's difficult to
predict a trend line or a future path.