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| SYRIA IN TRANSITION | |
 June 12, 2000  |
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Syria mourns the death of President Hafez al-Assad as his son moves to consolidate power.
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JIM LEHRER: Syria after the death of its longtime leader. We begin with a report from Julian Manyon of Independent Television News.
JIM LEHRER: Margaret Warner takes it from there.
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| Hafez al-Assad's legacy and his leadership | ||||||||||||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: Hisham Melhem, he did bring Syria to a greater role than its natural resources or human resources would normally have allowed it.
MARGARET WARNER: Ambassador Rabinovich, how do you see both his achievements and at what cost they came?
MARGARET WARNER: Mohammed Wahby, how do you see his legacy?
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EDWARD DJEREJIAN: He certainly was committed, I agree with what has been said on his strategic option for peace. When we negotiate -- MARGARET WARNER: And explain what you mean by strategic option for peace. EDWARD DJEREJIAN: Well, In 1991 when we were negotiating with him,
I was ambassador to Damascus at the time, he accepted under great urging
by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker to depart from the Geneva
conference formula, which is really indirect negotiations, which at
that time he called the Zionist entity, he wouldn't MARGARET WARNER: So, Hisham Melhem, why couldn't Hafez al-Assad make the deal with Israel? As you said, he was strong enough to sell the deal at home, why couldn't he make the deal with Israel?
MARGARET WARNER: All of it? HISHAM MELHEM: All of it, that's an extremely important principle. Hafez Al-Assad always believed that for peace to survive, it has to be established on a degree of equilibrium. Hafez Al-Assad was the Arab nationalist par excellence who chafed on the hegemony of Israel -- conscious of it every waking moment of his life -- was obsessed with checking what he termed to be Israel's debt to Syria and to the rest of Arab -- and especially the Arabs in the Eastern Mediterranean, he was very serious leader -- and he wanted to go down in history as the man who recovered all the land. He didn't want to be seen as a weak link; he didn't want to be seen as someone who is selling out. That principle for him is very, very important. Personally he was a very proud man, and he wanted to leave that kind of legacy for the future generation.
HISHAM MELHEM: He lost it on his watch as defense minister. And he
always wanted to regain it as a president, and he made it very clear,
he was extremely flexible on modalities of peace, but not flexible,
as he shouldn't be, on the substance of peace ITAMAR RABINOVICH: Margaret? MARGARET WARNER: Yes. ITAMAR RABINOVICH: Perhaps the problem is that with the word commitment that was used. I don't think Hafez al-Assad was committed to peace. He was ready to make peace. But he continued to exude a certain ambivalence about peace and a certain ill will with regard to Israel. It was then adversarial kind of peacemaking. The problem on the Israeli side is that Israelis want to be embraced, Israelis want to make peace in order to normalize their life. Someone like Sadat understood it very well. Someone like Yassir Arafat understands that he has to reach out to Israel. al-Assad refused to do that. And, therefore, there was a great deal of resistance, lingering resistance on both sides, which I think explains more than anything else why these final five percent or the remaining gap could not be crossed by both sides. |
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| Bashar al-Assad | ||||||||||||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: All right. Mohammed Wahby, let's go onto Bashar Assad. What do we know about him? You're the one among us who has actually met him. Tell us about him and what we should expect.
MARGARET WARNER: Educated in London? MOHAMMED WAHBY: Educated in London -- that's where I met him actually. MARGARET WARNER: Excuse me but just a few more bio details first. Was he educated all through college there or just his eye doctor training? MOHAMMED WAHBY: I met him when he was preparing to become an eye doctor actually. And he spoke English very, very well, and I believe also he spoke French, because I could hear him speaking French even at that time. And at the same time, something which I think might be quite relevant in the next few years, and that is he used to take pride in the fact that he is Anglo-Saxon educated. That's how he used to explain himself, and that I think will have some bearing in the future. MARGARET WARNER: So, Ed Djerejian, first of all, what are going to be his big challenges, and do you think he's going to be positioned, one, to really consolidate power, and then to operate in the peace process?
MARGARET WARNER: Hisham Melhem, how do you rate his prospects for meeting these challenges? Just today there was news, for instance, that even Hafez al-Assad's brother is saying he's going to challenge him for leadership.
MARGARET WARNER: Ambassador Rabinovich, when you look at this new Assad, do you see a man who will be able to bring Syria really into the modern world and who will be interested in and able to negotiate a peace with Israel?
MARGARET WARNER: Do you think -- very briefly -- do you think he can afford to be more flexible than his father?
MARGARET WARNER: Well, let the record reflect that Hisham Melhem is shaking his head, but we're out of time. Thank you all four very much. We'll return to this. |
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JULIAN
MANYON: All day mourners have been marching through the streets of Damascus,
wailing the loss of their dictator. The processions are organized, local
leaders of the ruling Baath Party caught the groups to form in different
parts of the capital. They are then bussed to a central square near
the hospital where Hafez al-Assad died and where his body is apparently
still being held. Most of the mourners are young men, vying with each
other in their displays of devotion to the dead leader and his son and
heir, Bashar. So far, preparations for tomorrow's funeral are going
smoothly, with no outward signs of the tensions and doubts that apparently
circulate
within the regime. But those doubts are real enough. As one well-connected
Syrian told me, Hafez al-Assad controlled this country with an iron
fist. It will be difficult for his son or anyone else to have the same
strong grip. Bashar is already moving to consolidate his power. Yesterday
he met Syria's top generals in his new key role as commander of the
armed forces. Today he's meeting a stream of foreign dignitaries, including
the leader of the Islamic guerrillas who fought Israel in South Lebanon.
Outside, some mourners are overcome by emotion. There will be many more
scenes like this at tomorrow's funeral, which is due to last all day.
MARGARET
WARNER: For perspective on Hafez al-Assad, and the man likely to succeed
him, we turn to Edward Djerejian, former U.S. Ambassador to Syria and
Assistant Secretary of State in the Bush administration; he's now director
of the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University; Itamar
Rabinovich, Israel's Ambassador to the U.S. from 1993 to '96, and at the
same time head of the Israeli delegation in peace talks with Syria.
He's written several books on Syria and the region and is now president
of Tel Aviv University. Mohammed Wahby, a retired Egyptian diplomat,
who is now a columnist for Al-Musawar Magazine. And Hisham Melhem, Washington
correspondent for the Lebanese newspaper, Al-Safir. Welcome, gentlemen.
EDWARD
DJEREJIAN: I believe that Hafez Al-Assad was really truly one of the
last of a generation of Pan Arab nationalist leaders. He defined the
contemporary history of Syria. I think one of his achievements was to
really build a regional political role for Syria, to have Syria considered
and acted upon as a major player not only in the Arab Israeli conflict
in terms of issues of war and peace, but in terms of the Middle East
peace process -- the undercurrent theme being that without Syria there
cannot be a comprehensive peace between the Arabs and Israelis. So he
did much to amplify Syria's regional role, and also brought stability
within Syria for the 30 years he was in power. Before Syria was looked
upon as a paradigm of military coup d'etats in the Arab world. 
HISHAM
MELHEM: Absolutely. His legacy is complex, obviously. He brought Syria
a degree of unprecedented domestic civility and regional influence that
goes beyond Syria's immediate environment, to the Gulf and beyond. He
did that by sheer tenacity and determination. Part of his legacy is
that he expressed, he articulated Arab nationalism. Part of the legacy
was that tenacious resistance to what he saw as Israel's hegemony in
the region, defending Syria's independent political decision-making.
But all this record has been achieved also at a significant cost in
terms of diminishing human rights in Syria and diminished civil liberties
in Syria, and almost a stagnant economy. That domestic achievement record
is less stellar than his foreign policy record. 
ITAMAR
RABINOVICH: I endorse what has been said so far. I'd like to emphasize
for the sake of variation the fact that he created a very stable regime
in Syria, but it was a very personalized regime. There was no institutionalization
of power. And he brought personalization to the apex by nominating his
son as successor, and, therefore, he raises the specter of continued
or renewed instability. In terms of Israel, he was a respected rival
and adversary. He was our most formidable adversary since the death
of Abu Nasser, the man who symbolized the Arab opposition to peace with
Israelis and then accepted the notion of peace -- and went 95% of the
way, did not complete the remaining 5%. So in this respect, too, he
leaves a mixed legacy.
MOHAMMED
WAHBY: On the positive side, actually, I think that his greatest contribution
was his commitment to peace as a strategic option with Israel. Because
no other leader in Syria could have made that commitment. And he also
has stuck to this commitment all through, since 1991 until now, throughout
the negotiation, his commitment to peace as a strategic option was all
the time there. That is, and also one part of his legacy is that he
has put an end to the civil war in Lebanon. He has contributed also
tremendously to what is now considered by most of the Arabs as the victory
by Hezbollah over Israel. So without his help, Hezbollah could not have
achieved the evacuation of South Lebanon by Israel.
MARGARET
WARNER: Ed Djerejian, first of all, do you agree that he was committed
to the idea of peace with Israel? And if so, why don't he go the final
five percent of the way, did he let an opportunity go by? 
HISHAM
MELHEM: He was very serious in recovering, attempting to recover all
the territory that Israel occupied in 1967. 
MARGARET
WARNER: And he of course was defense minister when the land was lost?
MOHAMMED
WAHBY: Very much an extrovert compared to his father. Very much friendly.
Very much an Arab who has been western educated. 
EDWARD
DJEREJIAN: Well, you use the word, Margaret, I think his immediate challenge
is the consolidation of power. We've seen that all the instrumentalities
have been put into place within the last 48 odd hours -- that he exceed
to the leadership positions and the military and the presidency to be
confirmed by parliament and by referendum. But this is in the short
term, and things are looking as if they're going forward smoothly. But
the consolidation of power, assuring that the military, the security,
intelligence, the Baath Party, the various leadership circles in Syria
support him, is going to be his immediate challenge in the near term.
And then his challenge will be to establish the relationships with key
partners in the region, with the United States, with key western powers
-- and then obviously what he's going to do vis-à-vis Israel
on the peace process. He has many challenges ahead of him. 
HISHAM
MELHEM: He is going to face a daunting challenge, because he has a variety
of regional as well as domestic challenges. The economy is in dire straits,
he has to reform that, he has to open Syria to foreign investment, he
has to provide for greater openness to a younger yearning Syrian generation.
Most Syrians are below 25 years old and they would like to see changes.
And regionally of course you have a stalemate situation with Israel,
he has to keep an eye on his neighbors to the north, the Turks, although
Lebanon, I don't expect Lebanon to become a major challenge to him now.
As far as his uncle, his uncle is a man with no credibility whatsoever.
He in Spain became the symbol of lawlessness and corruption, the man
amassed huge fortune milking Lebanon and Syria in the late 70's and
early 80's and now he's using that wealth, that ill begotten wealth
in Europe to try to make a comeback. One reason he will not succeed
is the lack of credibility -- he's a ruthless, corrupt man, and many
people who may have their own reservations about the way the succession
takes place. After all, this is maybe the beginning of Arab republic
dynasties -- would rather go with Bashar only because he's forward looking
and only because he's different than those pacified Arab Baath Party
hacks and bureaucracy.
ITAMAR
RABINOVICH: Well, these are two separate questions. I would say he certainly
looks the part. I think one of his early challenges is what I call the
Internet test. He himself is an avid Internet user, we are told. Syria
does not have universal access to Internet. It will be interesting to
see whether this happens as an early step in getting Syria into the
mainstream of international life at this time. With regard to Israel,
he's encumbered, both relieved by and encumbered by his brother's legacy.
The idea has been rehabilitated by Hafez al-Assad, but the price tag
has also been set. When he gets to that, and that's not the first item
on his agenda, he will have to maneuver between the burden and the benefit
of his father's legacy in this regard as well. 
ITAMAR
RABINOVICH: That will depend on how safely installed he is -- I could
argue that it would be to his advantage to establish his leadership
early on by showing that he can cross the water. But -- you know --
this is something that political leaders feel instinctively, whether
they want to rise to the occasion or whether they want to play it safe.