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| PERENNIAL PROBLEM | |
 February 23, 2001  |
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A look at the U.S. policy towards Iraq, the problem that won't go away.
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PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: We had two missions; one was to send a clear signal to Saddam, and the other was to degrade the capacity of Saddam to injure our pilots. I believe we succeeded in both those missions. KWAME HOLMAN: Mr. Bush said he also sent a signal to China, which is believed to be sharing radar technology with Iraq, in violation of U.N. sanctions.
KWAME HOLMAN: Yesterday, news reports suggested many state of the art bombs missed their Iraqi targets last week.
KWAME HOLMAN: The President used the term "Swiss cheese" to describe the leakiness of U.N. economic sanctions first imposed on Iraq after it invaded Kuwait. The trade embargo is supposed to allow Baghdad to sell oil only to purchase food and medicine.
SPOKESMAN: Thank you very much. |
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| Loosening sanctions on Iraq? | ||||||||||||||||||||
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JIM LEHRER: Ray Suarez takes it from there. RAY SUAREZ: For more on Iraq we get three views; Robert Pelletreau
was Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs during the
first Clinton administration, and ambassador to Tunisia and Egypt during
the Reagan and Bush administrations. Clovis Maksoud was the League of
Arab States ambassador to the U.N. from 1980 to 1990. And Richard Butler
was executive chairman of the United Nations special commission on Iraq
from 1997 to 1999.
RAY SUAREZ: But also signaled along with Prime Minister Blair an intention to relieve the pressures on the population of Iraq? ROBERT PELLETREAU: That's right. There's been a crumbling of sanctions under propaganda pressure and under realization in the region and throughout the world that the Iraqi people have been bearing the brunt of the hardship more than the Iraqi regime. So there's talk about some smart sanctions now, sanctions that will be targeted more directly at the government, at its efforts to reacquire military strength or weapons of mass destruction and lessening or relieving the burden that's on the Iraqi people, allowing them to get back on their feet and lead more normal lives. RAY SUAREZ: Clovis Maksoud, what do you make of the president's remarks?
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| Saddam Hussein is still a danger to the region | ||||||||||||||||||||
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RAY SUAREZ: Richard Butler, in today's news conference with the prime minister and the president implicit in all of their remarks was the assumption that Saddam Hussein and his regime in Iraq is still a danger to the region. Is he?
RAY SUAREZ: Robert Pelletreau, you heard Clovis Maksoud talk about the powers in the region, Saddam Hussein's neighbors, and Mr. Butler talk about a broken sanctions regime. How do you uncouple the sanctions that hurt the rank and file Iraqis and those that seek to keep Iraq from developing weapons of mass destruction? ROBERT PELLETREAU: I think you revise the list of permissible imports to expand those imports which directly affect ordinary people's lives, including such things as water treatment systems, the electric grid, things like that, but you remain absolutely rock solid on anything that has a direct bearing on increasing military power, any spare parts, any new weapons systems, and certainly any precursors to weapons of mass destruction.
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| Weapons inspections | ||||||||||||||||||||
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ROBERT PELLETREAU: I'm very dubious myself that Iraq is ever going to let inspectors back into the country and I don't think you should put too much weight of your policy on that. The worst danger would be to have an inspection system back in that is ineffective and that cannot uncover what Iraq has now had months and months to prepare for and to be absolutely covered up about. Chemical weapons and biological weapons can be produced in very small, very remote bathroom/bathtub-like facilities. I think a weapons inspection regime would have a great deal of difficulty trying to track them down, and we shouldn't be lulled into a false sense of security. RAY SUAREZ: Richard Butler, how do you answer that?
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| U.S. priorities in the Middle East | ||||||||||||||||||||
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RAY SUAREZ: Ambassador Maksoud, in the time that we have left, let's look forward to Secretary Powell's trip. You already suggested he's going to get an earful. Is it significant to you that this is a trip by a major American policy leader that is not focused on the Arab-Israeli problem?
RAY SUAREZ: Gentlemen, thank you all. |
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KWAME
HOLMAN: All week long thousands of Iraqis have protested last week's
bombing raids by U.S. and British warplanes. The attacks were President
George W. Bush's first military action as commander in chief. 
They
targeted radar towers and other facilities outside an area they patrol
regularly, the so-called no-fly zone in southern Iraq. It was established
by the first Bush administration a year after the 1991 Gulf War. The
government of Saddam Hussein said the bombing killed two people and
wounded others. President Bush defended his decision at his press conference
yesterday. 
PRESIDENT
GEORGE W. BUSH: We're concerned about Chinese presence in Iraq, and
we are... my administration is sending the appropriate response to the
Chinese. Yes, it's troubling that they'd be involved in helping Iraq
develop a system that will endanger our pilots. 
REAR
ADMIRAL CRAIG QUIGLEY: Did each weapon perform perfectly during the
strike? No, it did not. But we feel that, on balance, the strike had
good effectiveness. 
The
sanctions are to remain in place until Iraq proves it has gotten rid
of weapons of mass destruction.But a number of western and Arab nations
now are permitting commercial flights into Iraq, buying Iraqi oil, and
making diplomatic overtures to Saddam's government. And U.N. weapons inspectors
who left the country in late 1998 have not been allowed to return. Secretary
of State Colin Powell, who left today for a Middle East trip, has raised
what he calls smart sanctions. They would target Iraqi military sales
instead of blocking general economic transactions, a policy that's come
under wide criticism as punishing Iraqi civilians. Today at the Camp
David news conference with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, President
Bush said the two leaders discussed changes in the sanctions on Iraq.
PRESIDENT
GEORGE W. BUSH: Our beef is not with the people of Iraq; it's with Saddam
Hussein. And secondly, anytime anybody suffers in Iraq, we're concerned
about it. And I would, however, remind you that Saddam has got a lot
of oil money, and it would be helpful if he would apply it to helping
his people. Having said that, to the extent that sanctions are hurting
Iraqi people, we are going to analyze that. Colin is really going to
listen, he's going to solicit opinion from our friends and folks in
the Middle East, and prior to formulation of any policy, we will have
listened and then I will of course consult with friends and allies,
such as the prime minister here, as we develop a policy that we hope
and know will be more realistic. The prime minister said something interesting,
though: a change in sanctions should not in any way, shape or form embolden
Saddam Hussein. He has got to understand that we're going to watch him
carefully, and if we catch him developing weapons of mass destruction,
we'll take the appropriate action, and if we catch him threatening his
neighbors, we will take the appropriate action. A change in a sanction
regime that is not working should not be any kind of signal whatsoever
to him that he should cross any line of... and test our will, because
we're absolutely determined to make that part of the world a more peaceful
place by keeping this guy in check. 
ROBERT
PELLETREAU: Nobody in Washington believes that Saddam Hussein has changed
his intentions or his ambitions to be the dominant force in the Gulf
or his intention to reacquire weapons of mass destruction just as soon
as he's able to do so. I think the president has signaled a determination
by the United States and the United Kingdom to react strongly if there's
evidence that that's happening. 
CLOVIS
MAKSOUD: Well, I think the president's remarks are on the one hand they
seem to be saying that Secretary Powell is going to go to the region
to listen, and I think that he's going to hear certain policy recommendations,
I hope, and certain assessments that should be factored into the decision
making and policy making processes in the United States and maybe in
the United Nations also. I think that the question arises is how to
deal with the new elements that have been introduced, especially in
the last couple of years with diplomatic and commercial relations raising
between and among many Arab states which were part of the coalition.
There is a deep crisis of conscious throughout the Arab world and in
many other parts of the world about the suffering and the nature of
the indefiniteness of the sanctions on the people of Iraq, and this
has now become superseding much of the anxieties and concerns that many
regimes have about Saddam Hussein's regime itself. I mean, irrespective
of the judgment that many countries in the Arab world have about the
regime, they do have a major concern about the people of Iraq and then
there is also the anxiety arising out of Sharon's elections in the region,
and the fact that this is being subordinated to the geopolitical context,
which President Bush seems to imply about how to deal with the regional
affairs as a whole. And in that respect I think the visit might be a
learning lesson as well as an unlearning lesson, and I think that is
necessary at the beginning of the new administration of President Bush.
RICHARD
BUTLER: Yes, he certainly is, Ray. I find it curiously almost historically
appropriate that the new President's first entry into the harsh world
of international politics is on the Iraq issue. You think about how
the wheel of history turn from his father ten years ago, and next Monday
is the 10th anniversary of the liberation of Kuwait, and now to another
President Bush. And here he is on the world stage for the first time
dealing with Iraq. I believe that one of the things that we've seen
in the last 18 months, when the previous administration put Iraq policy
somewhat into limbo, is the truth of the principle that if you postpone
a truly serious problem, then the solution of it only gets harder. Now,
what we heard from the president, I think, was a very encouraging start
to find the new policy that the United States clearly needs. It emphasized
fundamentally the thing that is of basic importance, that is, Saddam
is still a very dangerous man. He remains connected to, I would say
addicted to weapons of mass destruction, and the need to get that under
control will be the core of a new policy. But there was also a realistic
recognition that the sanctions instrument, I think, is irretrievably
broken, and that he and Prime Minister Blair have indicated that they're
prepared to look at that. I think it was very important that the point
was made earlier that Saddam Hussein holds a very serious responsibility
himself for sanctions. Clovis Maksoud a moment ago talked about not
only the impact but their duration. Ray, they could have been removed
seven or eight years ago because they've always been tied to disarmament
-- if Saddam had given us the illegal weapons seven or eight years ago,
as was hoped and expected, those sanctions would have been removed.
Nevertheless, sanctions are now a broken instrument, and they need to
be part of a new policy mix -- the core of which has to be arms control,
but clearly for that to be acceptable to get those inspectors back in
there, there will have to be a revisiting of, an adjustment of the sanctions
regime. I see a good start towards that new policy being made today.
RAY
SUAREZ: Can inspectors ever get back into the country?
RICHARD
BUTLER: The fundamental requirement, if there's to be any chance of
getting inspectors back into Iraq is that a consensus in the Security
Council, which disappeared two and a half years ago, be restored. Saddam
Hussein has been the main beneficiary of this division in the Council.
If that were healed, if it were put back together, his political position
would be changed overnight. The first step towards putting that consensus
together is for the U.S. to develop a new policy and I see those first
steps being taken now. But just a quick word on inspections themselves:
This is not understood by many people. We are in the most shocking situation
with Iraq today; not only do we not have the inspections that were specially
mandated after the end of the Gulf War, but Iraq is even below the normal
standard, because as a party to the nuclear nonproliferation treaty,
like 160 other countries in the world, it should be the subject of normal,
regular inspections from the international atomic energy agency in Vienna.
It's not even receiving those. And people should understand that. Some
of what's being asked of Iraq is what's being asked of all manner of
countries around the world, not just the special post-Gulf War arrangements.
And, with all respect to Robert Pelletreau, I know it's difficult in
the biological field in particular, but absent human beings on the ground
with their eyes and ears to watch what is happening in Iraq's manufacturing
industries, we don't have a chance of knowing what is going on. And
I think the core of a new policy has to be absolute insistence that
those eyes and ears be put back on the ground in Iraq. 
CLOVIS
MAKSOUD: Well, there's no doubt that the question of Arab-Israeli conflict
is going to be factored in, whether it is American priority or not.
There seems to be a lopsided priority. The Arabs are more concerned
about the growing right-wing efforts in Israel, the new government of
Israel, and between the anxieties that they fear about the Iraqi situation.
They're trying to normalize... maybe not successfully as much as they
would want with Iraq, but they're trying really to sharpen their strategy
concerning the rise of Sharon and the failure of the peace process.
I think at this moment there are three landmarks which we must focus
on: One is that there is going to be a summit meeting on the 27th of
-- this is an institutionalized summit meeting of the Arab League in
March. Secondly, there is going to be a dialogue between the Secretary
General and the Iraqis and I hope that in this dialogue that there is
a formula where the Iraqis don't talk at the Americans and the British
in the same way as the Americans don't talk at the Iraqis in the same
way. So I think a simultaneity -- a formula, a resolution in the Security
Council of a simultaneous nature between lifting the sanctions on the
people of Iraq and having the compliance with the inspectors' presence
in the Iraqi to monitor the fact that there is no production of mass
destruction. I think this simultaneity has to be worked out, and I think
there is enough room to do so.