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| HIS FATHER'S SON | |
 February 8, 1999 
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ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: For a look at the challenges confronting Jordan and it's new king, we get three views. Roscoe Suddarth was U.S. Ambassador to Jordan in the late 1980's, and number two at the embassy a decade before. He is now president of the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC. Fouad Ajami is director of Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins University's Paul Nitze School of Advanced International Studies; and Laurie Brand is an associate professor at the University of Southern California's School of International Relations, and has written extensively about Jordan. ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Ambassador Suddarth, we just saw a funeral with past, present and even future intermingled. What do we need to know about Jordan's past to understand some of the challenges confronting its new king? |
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ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Fouad Ajami, what legacy from the past do you see as most influencing this new king?
ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Laurie Brand, does that come, that merciful power, come from the history of the Hashemites, the clan that King Hussein and the new king are a part of?
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FOUAD AJAMI: Well, Elizabeth, I think you've asked the question the right way. It really is -- if you look at this young king Abdullah - and I personally like the symmetry that he bears the name of the legendary King, Abdullah, the founder of the realm -- all the currents that made Jordan are represented in the life of this young monarch. He has a Palestinian wife, and we know that Jordan has-- whether it's 50 percent or 60 percent Palestinians, no one really can guess, but it is really a bi-national realm of Palestinians and Jordanians. He has a British mother, and Britain really created and made and held broker the creation of this realm. He comes from the armed forces, and Jordan really is in many ways a legacy of the Arab legion, the old Jordanian army. And I think the key test for him will be to take this country into this next century. He's not going to have the authority that his father had. Already there is discussions in Jordan about whether this could be a constitutional monarchy. So obviously he can't have the awe that his father had and he will have to learn how to negotiate the currents in his own country and then of course the currents of the region around him, the Iraqis, the Israelis, and negotiate Jordan's position in the world. ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Ambassador Suddarth, do you have anything to add about this new king?
ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Laurie Brand, I'm going to come back to the external challenges facing the new king in a minute but first what's the number one domestic challenge he faces? |
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ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And, Fouad Ajami, what about domestic political challenges? FOUAD AJAMI: Well, I think domestically, I mean, I don't see really that much of a challenge to this new king in his own country. I mean, there were rumors would he be challenged by his uncle? Anyone who knows the Hashemites would write this one off. This is a kind of Islamist opposition but it's a fringe opposition. It really is a very basically the - ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: I'm sorry for interrupting, an Islamist opposition, explain that.
ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Ambassador Suddarth, you mentioned some of the external challenges. What do you think is the key external challenge that he will face? |
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ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Fouad Ajami, do you agree with that? And you've called Jordan the quintessential buffer state. What did you mean by that?
ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And, Laurie Brand, as the new king confronts all these challenges, what are the key institutions that he will rely on? |
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ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Explain that. Explain it. LAURIE BRAND: Well, in Jordanian society, the social structure is such that what tribe one comes from and family one comes from is extremely important. You know from a person's last name a lot about him or her without having to ask them anything. And those sorts of ties are things which are important for doing business, both political and economic business, and so the institution of tribes, the evolving role of tribes is also going to be key to the future political and economic evolution of the kingdom. ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And Fouad Ajami, finally, he's the first of maybe a whole coming group of new young leaders isn't he?
ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Thank you all three very much. |
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ROSCOE
SUDDARTH, Former Ambassador, Jordan: Well, I think a couple of things.
It's a very poor country. It was created out of a desert wasteland,
and so it's economy is still not really viable. The other thing is that
Jordan has absorbed over two million Palestinian refugees from the 1948
and 1967 wars. And it's surrounded by some very dangerous neighbors,
particularly Iraq and Syria, but also surrounded by Israel where they
have a treaty and by Saudi Arabia. It was very encouraging to see Crown
Prince Abdullah there because perhaps the Saudis are going to bury the
hatchet and give economic assistance to Jordan.
FOUAD
AJAMI, Johns Hopkins University: Well, I think the Ambassador Suddarth
said it right. In a way, if you take a look at this new young King Abdullah,
he inherits a very poor realm and a very rich example. And the example
his father leaves is the presence of the world, the world converging
on this small impoverished domain to pay homage to this man. All the
currents of the world had swirled around King Hussein, and he negotiated
them with great talent, dignity and poise. And that's really what the
message and the example of King Hussein is all about. This is a man
who really did believe in being true to things universal and Western,
on the one hand, and true to things Arab, and he reconciled them. He
was forgiving even to would-be assassins, and he lives in a region with
all kinds of volatile disputes -- he leaves this legacy of forgiveness
and equanimity. Merciful power, that really is the example and the message
of King Hussein's life. And he leaves this to his son and to the realm
he leaves behind.
LAURIE
BRAND, University of Southern California: Well, I think that King Hussein
himself has, in fact, set his own legacy but certainly his grandfather
who ruled much longer than Hussein's own father set a similar sort of
legacy. Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, these were turbulent times for
Jordan -as Professor Ajami said -- King Hussein over the years was willing
to forgive and even incorporate into subsequent governments people who
had opposed him in the past. So there was always the possibility of
reform and rehabilitation so that while there were times the Jordanian
regime was very tough on domestic opponents, nonetheless, we never saw
levels of domestic violence against the opponents with the exception
of the 1970/ 71 events, never saw the kind of oppression levels that
we've seen in some of Jordan's neighbors.
ELIZABETH
FARNSWORTH: Fouad Ajami, place the new king in this history. This man
who was educated in England and in the United States, who has a history
in his own life was head of the special forces in Jordan, how does he
fit in with this history? 
ROSCOE
SUDDARTH: Well, he's got a lot of the -- he's a chip off the old block.
He's got the charisma, he's got the winning smile and personality, the
common touch of the king. He was captain of his wrestling team at Deerfield
Academy. He's athletic. He likes to jump out of airplanes. He's got
all of the daring kind of glamorous side of King Hussein, and he says--
and I fervently believe -- he will try to carry out the king's policies.
The trouble is carrying out the king's policies requires very fancy
footwork. The king was a master at tactical maneuvers that altered things
a little bit. So if he merely mouths the king's policies, he may get
into trouble. He's already shown some indication. He's offended the
Iranians by blasting their regime. And I think he's probably offended
Iraq by once again calling -- saying that it would be a good thing to
have a change of regime. That's not the way, I think, he should start.
I think he should be very cautious in the initial stages. 
LAURIE
BRAND: Well, it's clearly the economy - I mean, beyond of course beginning
to assert himself, his own personality, himself as Jordan's new leader
because very few people really know who he is. We know his CV-some of
the parts of which Ambassador Suddarth just went through. But very few
Jordanians really know the new king. So he has to assert himself as
the leader. But the economy is really the most pressing issue. Jordan
suffered a severe economic downturn in the late 1980s. And while there
have been some signs of revival periodically, nonetheless, it's still
in very difficult conditions. The unemployment rate is quite high. And
with the change in king now there's been some concern over the value
of the dinar. So he needs to respond to some pressing economic issues
-- restructuring the economy and moving ahead with liberalization on
various fronts, and also maintaining a social safety net so that a larger
proportion of Jordan's population doesn't fall below the poverty line.
FOUAD
AJAMI: Well, these are religious fundamentalists. I mean, there is a
kind of religious current in Jordan. But I think that if you take a
look at the -- I think Professor Brand is right, what he really has
to do is he has to make sure that he repairs the economy of this country.
30 percent of Jordan is below the poverty line. It's an oppressed country.
I think the Americans now have done the right thing. President Clinton
now proposes to give Jordan something like $300 million. The world has
a vested interest in the stability of Jordan, as it does in the vested
interest in the stability of the Palestinians entity to which money
has been forthcoming. So, people will have to make sure that Jordan
floats, because it's essential for the accommodation between Israel
and the Palestinians.
ROSCOE
SUDDARTH: Well, I think it's Iraq mainly because Saddam is so unpredictable.
And he's in an angry bellicose mood right now. So my advice to the young
King Abdullah is don't provoke him. And I'm concerned that the United
States -- now pushing the Iraq Opposition Act -- is trying to simulate
outside opposition activities from all around the area to Saddam, and
I don't think that this transitional period is a good time to be involving
Jordan in that. I hope that the administration will be wise and cautious
in that regard. 
FOUAD
AJAMI: Well, it really is this buffer state between Israel and Iraq.
It's a buffer state between Syria and the oil states, Saudi Arabia and
the states of the Gulf. And I agree with Ambassador Suddarth, we shouldn't
draw the Jordanians - we shouldn't lean on them unless we're dead serious
about Iraq. We shouldn't somehow invite them to participate in adventures
that we ourselves are not particularly serious about. We should understand
the weakness of the Jordanian realms because our Iraq policy has tended
to be hot and cold. We talk about overthrowing Saddam. Then we blow
out of the region. We should treat this carefully, and if we're really
going to draw Jordanians and Jordan under this new monarch now into
the issue of Iraq, we should have our Iraq policy intact and thought
through. 
LAURIE
BRAND: Well, obviously the legitimacy of the monarchy first and foremost.
Secondly, I would say the institution of the army. One of the points
that many analysts make about Jordan is that probably unlike the Jordan
that his father inherited, King Abdullah now inherits a realm which
is far more institutionalized politically. That doesn't mean that Jordan
doesn't have problems with some of its political institutions, that
there still aren't room for political evolution and development, but
it has a diversified bureaucracy. It has, you know, strong internal
security forces and so those are key institutions. The other institution
that I would mention, which is not as formal an institution but continues
to be the rule of the tribes in Jordan, which is an evolving role, a
changing role - but nonetheless -