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| CYCLE OF VIOLENCE | |
 October 9, 2000  |
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Three experts discuss the standoff between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat over the violence in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Editor's Note: This discussion originally aired at 6:00 pm EDT.
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To assess the situation, we turn to three experts on the Middle East. Geoffrey Kemp was senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs at the National Security Council during the Reagan administration; he is now at the Nixon Center. Rashid Khalidi is a professor of Middle East history and director of the Center for International Studies at the University of Chicago. And Menachem Brinker is chair of Modern Hebrew Studies at the University of Chicago, and a professor at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. Welcome, gentlemen. Geoffrey Kemp, how do you assess or what do you make of the developments we've seen today, both on the ground and diplomatically? Do you think we're on the brink of some resolution, or it is moving the other way? |
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| On the brink of a breakthrough? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: Professor Khalidi, how do you see it in terms of looking at today and what's been happening?
MARGARET WARNER: In terms of the crisis management that Geoff Kemp talked about, do you think this crisis is being managed? RASHID KHALIDI: I'm not sure it is. Things have spiraled to the point that I'm afraid on both sides there is very likely no control possible or very little control possible. Clearly the Israeli military and security forces, clearly the Shabbat in the streets have now in a sense taking this thing beyond the control of the commanders, beyond the control of the politicians. And I think the United States has been almost derelict in its duty. There were things that should have been done at the very beginning. Sharon gave us a week's notice before he went... MARGARET WARNER: You're talking about the right-wing politician who went to visit Barak. RASHID KHALIDI: Precisely. One of the few people who will probably benefit from these events will be Ariel Sharon. Someone should have stepped and said, if Barak can't tell him not to go there, perhaps the United States should suggest it would be unwise and take the lightning that would have resulted. Similarly, I think that way back before Jerusalem was put on the table at Camp David, it would have been wise for people to understand how sensitive an issue it was and to understand that this is one of the many permanent status issues that should have been discussed years ago instead of deferred as it has been until now. MARGARET WARNER: Professor Brinker, let's try to stay on today, if we could, just for another minute, which is today was the day this ultimatum was due to expire. One, do you think that ultimatum was a good idea on what Barak's part, and two, now that the deadline's come and gone, what are Israel's options?
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| Barak's ultimatum | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: Geoff Kemp, do you think the ultimatum was a good idea?
MARGARET WARNER: When you say act tough, what do you mean? GEOFFREY KEMP: Well, he's got to act tough to his own people, because if he does not, he's going to end up either without a government, he'll be out of office, or he'll have to form a government with Erik Sharon. And if that happens, we really can kiss good-bye to the peace process certainly for this administration. And when you kiss good-bye to the peace process, more trouble will erupt in the region. MARGARET WARNER: Professor Khalidi, some of the options that were floated and leaked and who knows from whom about what Barak could do included attacking Arafat's headquarters, they included some sort of attack on Lebanon in retaliation for the taking of these three Israeli soldiers. What impact would that have?
MARGARET WARNER: Okay. If we go back to the crisis management we started talking about, Professor Brinker said, you know, obviously what Barak wants Arafat to do is at least come out publicly and say, stop the demonstrating, stop the shooting, stop the rock-throwing. Why has Arafat not done that, do you think? RASHID KHALIDI: Because the numbers of dead and wounded would indicate that the shooting that has to be stopped is not coming from the few Palestinians who killed two or three Israelis soldiers and wounded a dozen. It's from the Israeli forces that have killed 90 or 100 Palestinians and wounded 1,500, including 200 children. Arafat is a politician, like Barak. His public opinion is looking at the 2,000 or so Palestinians who have been killed, wounded and maimed and saying, the restraint has to come from the Israeli side. Obviously, both are going to have to show restraint. That's not the point. The point is that if we weigh in the balance, 2,000 Arab casualties and a dozen or two dozen Israeli casualties, clearly the person not showing restraint is not just Yasser Arafat. Whatever ability he has to control his own population or forces or the people with guns, or the Shabbat in the street, it is I think also first and foremost in fact Ehud Barak. MARGARET WARNER: Okay. Let me turn to Professor Brinker. Professor Brinker, now, what Arafat is saying he wants is for, I think, no live ammunition to be used by the Israeli defense forces and also to have Israeli troops pull out of these predominantly Palestinian-controlled areas. Why can Barak... Can Barak do that? If not, why not?
MARGARET WARNER: Let me just get back the Geoff Kemp on a couple points. Geoff Kemp, what will it take now to end this, to manage this crisis and to keep it from expanding into what you warned about, something even wider?
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GEOFFREY KEMP: No. Well, what may need to be done is for President Clinton to literally go to the region and sit down with Arafat, sit down with Barak, sit down with the Arab League and the United Nations or some other group and talk it through, because let's face it, it's not just Barak and Arafat and Clinton who have a lot at stake here. So does Mubarak, so does King Abdullah, so do the Saudis. All the moderate regimes that we call and like in the region are threatened if this gets out of hand. Clinton has a lot to play with if he's prepared to take a bold risk for crisis management. MARGARET WARNER: So you would suggest he go over there even if or particularly if the violence hasn't ended? GEOFFREY KEMP: Yes, I do. Because I think if the violence doesn't end, it will get out of hand. If it gets out of hand, it will spread, if it spreads, it will undermine the very security structure that Clinton and other American presidents have nurtured and built up for the last 20 years in the region. MARGARET WARNER: All right. Well, thank you. Geoffrey Kemp and professors both. |
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MARGARET
WARNER: Israeli Prime Minister Barak did convene his cabinet this evening,
and as of 6pm Eastern Time, they're still meeting. 
GEOFFREY
KEMP: I think we may be on the brink of some breakthrough, but we have
to understand, Margaret, that what the leaders of the world and the
region are now involved in is crisis management, not the peace process.
The peace process we must put on hold. What we have to do is to prevent
an escalation of violence between Israel and the Palestinians becoming
a Middle East conflagration involving Lebanon, Syria, and then possibly
other radical elements. And don't forget, Saddam Hussein is waiting
to intervene in a crisis like this because he's still harbors revenge
against us. This is a very serious moment, and the priority has to be
to prevent escalation and violence, and we'll worry about the peace
process next week or next month. 
RASHID
KHALIDI: Well, today is a continuation of 12 days of this. If once again
the effort is to put a band-aid on a really serious problem, we're not
going to get anywhere. Sooner or later the United States, Russia, the
world is going to have to step in and make clear that the root problem
of this is a continuation of the occupation. The sad thing is that,
had the various agreements that have already been signed been implemented,
most of the flashpoints shown on your film would long since have been
ceded to the Palestinians and the friction which results from 70 percent
of the West Bank still being under occupation and 30 percent of the
Gaza Strip still being under occupation after nine years of negotiation
would hopefully be eliminated. 
MENACHEM
BRINKER: Well, I think it is not wholly symmetrical -- the extent of
control that Barak has over the IDF and the extent of control that Arafat
has over the Palestinian street. But I think Barak meant to dramatize
the situation, and at least to bring it to happen that the leaders will
clearly and unambiguously say that they don't want this violence. Then
there would be perhaps some settlers on the Israeli side and perhaps
some youth on the Palestinian side. But then the crisis would be manageable.
As long as there is not such unambiguous declaration of Arafat, just
the opposite -- he declares that we should go on fighting if necessary
even from Tunisia, as long as there is no unambiguous declaration like
this, of course the crisis will grow and grow and grow. 
MARGARET
WARNER: But, I mean, everything you're prescribing is what President
Clinton and Madeleine Albright and the Europeans and everybody else
has been telling the parties for the last ten days, and it appears,
judging from the other two guests on this segment and what we're hearing
out of the region, that neither side sees an incentive or else has the
ability to do what needs to be done.