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| TARGET: FALLUJAH | |
 November 8, 2004  | |
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U.S.-led forces launched a major offensive on the Iraqi city of Fallujah Monday, hoping to bring the city under control in advance of proposed January elections. Ray Suarez joined by Adeed Dawisha, professor of political science at Miami University of Ohio, and Abbas Kadhim, lecturer on Islamic ethics and the history of the Qu-ran at the Graduate Theological Union in Berkeley, Calif., discuss the possible ramifications of the assault on Fallujah.
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Adeed Dawisha is a professor of political science at Miami University of Ohio. And Abbas Kadhim is a lecturer on Islamic ethics and the history of the Quran at the Graduate Theological Union in Berkeley, California. Professor Kadhim, has the resistance to the new Iraqi government and the American military left them any choice in how to deal with the insurgents? Was there any other way to control Fallujah? ABBAS KADHIM: Well, first, you know, I would a little bit modify the question a little -- has the government in Iraq and of course the forces that are supporting it left Iraq any choice but this chaos? I mean, we are standing at the end of 17 months of mistakes on policy catastrophes. So this is not a surprise that we will have no options but, you know, war -- an all-out war. And this is not -- Fallujah is not the first city.
Stability in Iraq is a necessity we all agree on but I'm not sure that the crucifying of Fallujah in the last week of Ramadan and with... against all the sentiments on public opinion in Iraq in the Arab world is a good way to polish the image of this government and give it any sense of legitimacy. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forcing a resolution | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RAY SUAREZ: Well, you refer to the crucifying of Fallujah. Briefly what you would have preferred to see happen in this time? ABBAS KADHIM: Well, maybe more time for negotiations. Today I was watching one of the people who were close to the negotiations. They said that the government gave no way out in this negotiation because they insisted on the non-negotiable condition of delivering Abu Musa al-Zarqawi. And it seems like a reminder of the negotiation with Saddam Hussein, which is to turn over the WMDs or war, and it turned out that there were no WMDs and it was war the only option. I think it's prudent to prepare for the Iraqi government and the forces that are going there, to prepare for the scenario that probably they will go in and kill as many civilians that will inevitably be killed and then not find Abu Musa al-Zarqawi. And we will be facing the same moral quagmire, basically a war or an attack on the city and the - you know -- on a false pretext. And this will be hell to pay for Iyad Allawi to sort of reassert himself again especially he is going in with complete lack of legitimacy in the minds of his own public opinion. RAY SUAREZ: Professor Dawisha do you agree that there would have been other ways to handle this short of this all-out assault?
The preferable way would have been reaching some kind of a compromise that is palatable to both parties, but negotiations have been going on in fact since last April, since the first operation against Fallujah and the negotiations have been intensified in fact over the last four or five months under the new government. Nothing has come out of it. Now, you could say that the government was implacable in its demands. I mean, you know, you could turn this argument the other way and say that the people of Fallujah were implacable in their demands. They wanted the Americans to vacate the perimeter where they are now. They wanted the government to send forces only from people from their own city. This is the ploy that they used in April which led to the Fallujah Brigade and we know what happened with that kind of debacle. At some point, the government has to make a decision. It is no secret to anyone that Fallujah has become the main magnet for terrorist activities in Iraq. It is no secret that it has attracted thousands of outside forces, and it is no secret that many of the remnants of Saddam's regime find in Fallujah a very hospitable terrain to do their operations. At some point you have to exert your... the rule of law and the only alternative seems to me after those months of negotiations, after it was very clear that neither the Fallujians nor the terrorists and the insurgents who are operating in Fallujah had any intention of meeting the government halfway. The only alternative was to basically use force. |  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Weighing the risks | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ABBAS KADHIM: Well, again, we have to keep our eyes on the real goal here and the whole project in Iraq or the enterprise that is going on. If it is about winning a military victory, I mean this is not impossible to achieve. However, I mean, past performance showed that it is not certain, but if it is about, as you mentioned earlier, the hearts and minds, I mean, this war has been long lost because it is impossible to win hearts and minds with this kind of death and destruction. Reports are talking about over 100,000 civilians killed in Iraq. That's more than the average year of any Saddam time. There is also, you know, if we expect... if we exempt, you know, a couple of years, the 1991 and maybe the Halabja catastrophe so that - you know -- is not going to sit well with the Iraqi people.
And, you know, we have to emphasize that because such government cannot resort to force to assert its authority. And I would, you know, probably, if I may respond to one thing Professor Dawisha mentioned. I mean I would agree with him if Fallujah is the only place the Iraqi government is not controlling in Iraq. The Iraqi government is not controlling any place in Iraq except even the green zone is not safe. So, you know, to say that... and capturing Fallujah and retrieving it, I don't think that this is a viable argument because every other city is exactly as chaotic as Fallujah, probably less in the news. But it is I think not accurate to put the trouble all in Fallujah and certainly we agree that terrorists are a problem and the stability is important but I don't see that, you know, how this kind of assault is going to achieve the goals especially when it's coupled with this emergency law that is being placed that is going to be probably the kiss of death for the Iraqi elections that is coming because it will be ending just, you know, two weeks probably short of.... RAY SUAREZ: Let me go to Professor Dawisha for a quick response. You heard your colleague's brief. If the Allawi government has to establish its legitimacy and if elections are to be held on time early next year, what are the risks now that the assault is underway? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The demand for democracy | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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It's obvious that when you have these people in Fallujah and give them full reign to load cars with explosives, drive them to various parts of Baghdad or other cities, explode them, create mayhem, that date is going to be somewhat unrealistic. Now there is a great demand in Iraq for elections to take place. I disagree that somehow the legitimacy of the whole political order is in question. It might be the case that Iyad Allawi's government is illegitimate because after all it was appointed, but at least he is trying to move the country to the path... on the path towards democracy. And democracy will only happen if we have elections. We can't have elections if we have chaos. People have to understand that. Now, the other cities in Iraq such as Najaf, such as, of course, Sadr City-- both had resistance. Both were met with force. I disagree completely that all cities in Iraq are now in chaos. Najaf is not. Certainly the whole cities of the South are not. The northern enclave of the Kurds are not. There are some problems in Mosul and Kirkuk but in all of these cities, in all of these centers you can today-- you can tomorrow, in fact, if you have your constituencies and your precincts done-- you can hold elections. There are very few towns certainly in the Anbar Province, Fallujah, Ramadi, Baqouba maybe where this cannot happen. Therefore while it is true that Fallujah is not the end of the road, it certainly is the beginning of the road. You have to tame Fallujah before you begin to think about elections. And that's why I think there was really no other alternatives but to take it on. RAY SUAREZ: Adeed Dawisha and Abbas Kadhim, gentlemen, thank you both. |  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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RAY
SUAREZ: So was this the best way to deal with the insurgency in Fallujah, and
what are the possible ramifications? For that we get views from two men born and
raised in Iraq. 
We
had Najaf before and we had Samarra and every time that, you know, we are told,
"this is it, this is the war to end all wars" as the dictum goes, and
to discover that actually it is unfinished business as we learned today from the
secretary of defense so I believe that the government is trying to achieve some
success which probably everybody can live with. 
ADEED
DAWISHA: Well, the preferable way would have been certainly negotiations. 
RAY
SUAREZ: Well now that the assault is underway, Professor Kadhim, what are the
risks for the United States, not just in military but in political terms? 
And
that is not going to sit well with the public opinion in the region as a whole.
Also, we have to keep in mind that this is a government that is not perceived
to be a legitimate government. 
ADEED
DAWISHA: Well, you know, that is precisely the point. I think the goal in all
this is to have elections held in its proper time, which is sometime around the
end of January.