In Policy Switch, Iraqis Push for U.S. Withdrawal Timetable

JUAN COLE, University of Michigan: Well, it's certainly a significant shift in rhetoric. Maliki has never before called for a timetable for U.S. withdrawal.

His national security council adviser today made an even stronger statement that any memorandum of agreement between the United States and Iraq on the status of U.S. forces in that country would have to include a timetable.

He said that right after meeting with Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani of Najaf, the spiritual leader of Iraq's Shiites. There were big demonstrations, thousands strong, on Friday organized by the Sadr movement, which is still a vital political force, against the Status of Forces Agreement.

And the deputy speaker of parliament today said that he can't imagine the parliament agreeing to a Status of Forces Agreement that allows the U.S. troops in Iraq to function with immunity from prosecution in Iraqi courts. So al-Maliki is...

GWEN IFILL: Well, so, Professor Cole, why now? What's the timing about? Is it about internal politics, external politics?

JUAN COLE: It's frustration over the status-of-forces agreement. The U.S. and Iraq were supposed to sign those by the end of July. There are still many issues that have not been resolved in the negotiations.

Iraq is very eager to come out from under Chapter 7 of the United Nations charter. It wants to regain its sovereignty, but it doesn't want to do so at the cost of giving up sovereignty to the United States.

And so Maliki is, as the ambassador rightly said, between a rock and a hard place. He wants to move forward. He wants to maintain Iraq's sovereignty. He wants to maintain the alliance with the United States, but what the U.S. is demanding of him are things that he probably just can't get through his parliament.

REND AL-RAHIM FRANCKE: Well, you know, there are some reports that say that the United States is not totally in disagreement. And the question is how you frame it, because if the Maliki government insists on a set schedule for withdrawal of troops, then I think they will find some resistance.

On the other hand, this is not what I understand. Maliki, of course, made the statement, which is very provocative, in the UAE on his recent visit, and actually talked about either a withdrawal of U.S. troops or a timetable for drawdowns.

If, in fact, they want to schedule, then I think they will face some resistance from the U.S. negotiators. If, on the other hand, as may actually happen, they talk about a horizon for drawdown of troops and conditionality -- in other words, when such conditions prevail, then troop withdrawal is going to happen -- that is much more realistic and will certainly be acceptable, in some sense, to the U.S.

But I think the timing of it, by the way, is because we are getting closer to the July 31st deadline. And I think the Maliki government feels that we have not come to some kind of closing of the issues and that more time is needed. And I think this is going to come up in the next few days.

JUAN COLE: Well, he's certainly grown into the job. He came to be prime minister from a background, really, in conspiratorial politics in Damascus for 20 years.

And I think initially he just didn't understand what it meant to be a prime minister. He wasn't meeting with the Sunnis in his government. He alienated a lot of people. And he was running interference for the Mahdi Army. Initially, he came to power backed by the Sadr movement.

So as he broke with the Sadrists, as he made a closer alliance with the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, he gained a source of local support that wasn't quite so rejectionist. And he was able to move forward.

I think his military also has improved in its capabilities. He's gained in confidence. So a lot of things have come together. I think also the decline in -- relative decline in violence has given him more room to operate.

GWEN IFILL: Let's talk about the decline in violence. To what degree is he responsible for that? And does that mean that, now that Iraq has the capability to step in, should the U.S. decide to step back?

REND AL-RAHIM FRANCKE: Well, if I may just add to what Juan Cole just said, I think Maliki gained a great deal by his bold move against the Sadrists in Basra, in Sadr City, and his move against the al-Qaida in Mosul.

That resonated very well, especially with the Sunni groups who were not expecting Maliki to move against other fellow Shia, as he did in Basra and Sadr City.

And I think that really bolstered both the confidence in him from the Sunnis, and bolstered his credibility in the country, and also gave him a great measure of self-confidence.