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| MILITARY MOVES | |
 November 9, 2001  |
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Forces from the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance claim to have captured the key Afghan city of Mazar-e-Sharif.
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VICTORIA CLARKE, Pentagon Spokeswoman: The situation on the ground is fluid. Until things settle and we see where forces are after a day or two, our inclination is to withhold comment. What we have seen is encouraging. REAR ADMIRAL JOHN STUFFLEBEEM: There's a lot of dust in the air right now. There are skirmishes happening across these various fronts-- if you want to call them as such-- and with that dust in the air, it's very hard to tell exactly what's going on, except maybe in some very discreet areas where somebody has got that local report. SPENCER MICHELS: Navy Rear Admiral John Stufflebeem was asked why Mazar-e-Sharif was so valuable.
REPORTER: Psychological boost for not only just the opposition, but for the U.S. campaign? REAR ADMIRAL JOHN STUFFLEBEEM: I think that's kind of going a little bit too far to say that it's a psychological boost for the coalition or for the campaign as much as it would likely be a psychological loss, from that perspective, to the Taliban. SPENCER MICHELS: British Prime Minister Tony Blair, meeting with the Spanish Prime Minister, heralded the progress in Mazar-e-Sharif.
SPENCER MICHELS: In Afghanistan, leaders of the Northern Alliance, claiming to have captured Mazar-e-Sharif, said Taliban fighters had retreated from the city after heavy fighting. Foreign Minister Abdullah spoke some distance from the battle. ABDULLAH: The last frontline which Taliban had had towards Mazar-e-Sharif has been broken today, so Mazar-e-Sharif is under a great pressure and Taliban forces in Mazar-e-Sharif are under great pressure.
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MARGARET WARNER: For more on the situation in Afghanistan we turn to Haron Amin, spokesman for the Northern Alliance and its representative to Washington. Ashraf Ghani, adjunct professor of anthropology at Johns Hopkins University. He was born in Afghanistan and taught there before coming to the United States in 1977. He has been advising the U.N. Special representative for Afghanistan and just returned from a trip to Pakistan and Iran -- and Michael Vickers, a former Army Green Beret and CIA officer with experience in that region. He's now director of strategic studies at the center for strategic and budgetary assessments, a non-partisan defense policy think tank. Welcome, gentlemen. Mr. Amin, beginning with you. What more can you tell us about the situation on the ground? Is the Northern Alliance in control of Mazar-e-Sharif?
MARGARET WARNER: Now, there were reportedly at least originally some 10,000 Taliban in and around that city. What's happened to them? HARON AMIN: The number that was exaggerated in terms of the 10,000. There were quite a few thousand people -- Taliban soldiers. They have moved towards to the East, trying to either go south towards Kabul to strengthen maybe Taliban positions north of Kabul or towards the province of Konduz, which is right next to the Takhar province where you've got Taliban strength there. That's where the forces have gone. But over the last few days we've killed as many as 500 Taliban soldiers as well as about a few hundred have been captured as prisoners. MARGARET WARNER: Was there resistance? HARON AMIN: The onslaught was placed such from both southwest as well as southeast that it really... Once you have these high positions and once the town was captured that it wouldn't... The plane lands en route to Mazar-e-Sharif does not leave much room for any resistance and it seems that the Taliban, in light of the fact that they've persecuted people so badly in Mazar-e-Sharif for the last few years, that really prompted them to maybe not do so much fighting and maybe withdraw to the east of their city. |
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MICHAEL VICKERS: Well I think the Pentagon's reaction was still very early. It was several hours ago, and just being cautious to wait and see how things settle on the ground. Mazar-e-Sharif is a big city. While there's tremendous anti- Taliban opposition there, there still could be pockets of resistance and I think just waiting to see how things turned out. But it does look like the Northern Alliance has captured the city. MARGARET WARNER: Now, when you say you're in control of the city, Mr. Amin, what do you mean? HARON AMIN: Well, what that means is that the Taliban have been effectively kicked... I mean, have effectively left the city. That means that we have entered the city. We have secured all quarters of the city and that the commission that was responsible under the defense ministry to look into the security as well as military aspects of the control of the city have confirmed that we have surrounded the city and that it is indeed in our hands, in our control. MARGARET WARNER: Mike Vickers, two weeks ago, more than two weeks ago, there were stories that the Northern Alliance was moving in from a couple different directions on Mazar-e-Sharif and they didn't take the city. What made it possible now?
MARGARET WARNER: What would you add, Mr. Amin, in terms of why it became possible now, because just a week ago you and others were still complaining that the U.S. wasn't doing enough. We saw pictures of Northern Alliance commanders kind of lounging around watching American bombing runs. What happened? HARON AMIN: You remember part of our strategy was that we were going to go after Mazar-e-Sharif. That was very important. In terms of the international coalition campaign, Mazar did have the priority. What made it possible was again the provision of material support, military support, as well as those air raids, because in light of the shortage of heavy weapons that we had, I think that the air raids did indeed compensate appropriately. And Mazar-e-Sharif's significance is that it's going to -- both as the events of 1992 showed as well as the 1998 capture of the Taliban of these northern provinces, it's going to set a chain reaction of the neighboring provinces to fall and set the stage for future developments. |
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MARGARET WARNER: All right. Professor Ghani, you weigh in here now on the significance. If this is true, if the Northern Alliance has Mazar-e-Sharif, what's the significance?
The second impact is going to be for the population of the city and for them to test whether the Northern Alliance is indeed a new Northern Alliance that will be able to cater to the needs of the population and be able to provide them with security and with humanitarian assistance or whether the Northern Alliance will again be a fractionalized set of individuals and groups who will not be able to coordinate in peace. MARGARET WARNER: And, Professor, what about for the Taliban? Is it just a psychological blow or does it in any way affect their ability to hold on to other areas further South? ASHRAF GHANI: No, indeed. Because in northwestern Afghanistan, the impact of this could be great as well as the rest of northern Afghanistan in the first instance. Given the casualties, if these casualty figures are to be demonstrated to be true, the rest of the Taliban would need to take that seriously into account and realize that the pressure is only going to increase upon them and not going to decrease. And those commanders who have sided with Taliban not out of pure ideology but out of convenience would now have a much stronger motive and opportunity to change sides and enable other commanders in the Northern Alliance such as one who operates in southwestern Afghanistan to be able to come to the fore and conquer more territory. MARGARET WARNER: Mike Vickers, what would you add to that, particularly in terms of the U.S. objectives, how important this is and in what way?
MARGARET WARNER: And also now the Pentagon, the people at the Pentagon said that by opening... That this would really open up a corridor, a land corridor from Uzbekistan to Mazar-e-Sharif. Why is that significant? MICHAEL VICKERS: Well that's important for both military as well as humanitarian reasons. Right now the Northern Alliance has been operating in pockets and a lot of the relief has been done by air. And air is a very limited way of doing business. Once you can open up a land corridor, you can deliver a lot more materiel both humanitarian relief as well as military equipment and ammunition. That will really tip the balance of power in northern Afghanistan. |
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MARGARET WARNER: Professor Ghani, does this move the U.S. any closer to the other aim, which is to capture or somehow get Osama bin Laden and the members of his al-Qaida network? Are they in this part of the country at all? Are they affected by this in any immediate way?
On the contrary, there would be a danger that there would be a north-south possible collision, and that could be a very serious issue internally for Afghanistan, in that regard it is critical to see as to what would be the next focus of attention, whether it's going to be on Kabul, on the rest of the north or on southwest Afghanistan and each one of those would have very different implications. MARGARET WARNER: Mr. Amin, first of all, what's your sense of al-Qaida? For instance, some of the Taliban troops, we're told, al-Qaida fighters are fighting. That is non-Afghanis who have come in to join Osama bin Laden. Were any of them among the groups that were holding Mazar-e-Sharif? HARON AMIN: Al-Qaida people as well as militants from around the region have been spearheading a lot of the operations. Now certainly the capture of Mazar-e-Sharif signifies that the al-Qaida's strategy has been to fortify positions within southern Afghanistan. That's why we have not effectively engaged our forces on the ground. But the implication of Mazar-e-Sharif and the larger context is that with the effect of rollback of the Taliban for most of northern Afghanistan that would set the stage for major defection rates among those Taliban who are on the one hand looking at this from a pure ideological sense versus those that are looking at it more from a pragmatic sense of survival.
MARGARET WARNER: Let me ask you again just about Mazar-e-Sharif. I keep returning to that. There have been all kinds of questions about Northern Alliance and Professor Ghani raised them about their previous record there, lots of human rights abuses. What assurances are you giving the world that it will be different this time? HARON AMIN: Well, if you look at the past violations, you have to look at what happened there in 1998 when the Taliban took over they had persecuted, including among others 11 Iranian diplomats. So our guarantee is that we will work with the international community and let us hope in light of a clear cut time bound political road map that none of whatever happened in the past will be once again repeated. There will be better situation.
HARON AMIN: Our military strategists are looking at exactly what the next best option is after Mazar-e-Sharif. Certainly Herat and the Kundus would be another objective and also investing Kabul or secure or surrounding of Kabul and not going into Kabul would be the next primary objective. MARGARET WARNER: Mike Vickers, would you expect the Taliban to accept this? Are they in a position that they have to accept this or would you expect a counteroffensive? MICHAEL VICKERS: Well, the Taliban heartland really is in the South. That's where the battle for Afghanistan is ultimately going to be waged. They may resist in the North. I mean there have been some reports that they moved east from Mazar-e-Sharif, but those forces really are likely to be cut off. And be in trouble soon. I think some of the forces in front of Kabul are very vulnerable as well. So most of the resistance I think will be in the South and rather than in the North. MARGARET WARNER: Last very quick question. Were any American forces with your forces when they took Mazar-e-Sharif? HARON AMIN: To the best of my knowledge, that was not something that was confirmed by our deputy defense minister but certainly in the international campaign, there have been advisors that have looked into the issue of bombardment and air raids - not to avoid collateral damage but additionally effective ground movement. MARGARET WARNER: Mr. Amin, Professor Ghani and Mike Vickers, thank you all three. |
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SPENCER
MICHELS: Mazar-e-Sharif has been a Taliban stronghold since 1997. Its
capture today would be a major victory for the opposition forces. Geographically,
the city sits at a key site, controlling routes toward Kabul to the
south and to Uzbekistan to the North. Pentagon officials were cautious
today about declaring a victory in Mazar-e-Sharif.
REAR
ADMIRAL JOHN STUFFLEBEEM: From a military perspective, taking control
away from the Taliban is important. And therefore, the citizens in that
area are not underneath that oppressive regime. Humanitarian assistance
can be made available. Less control of the country is now happening
from that group. So strategically, humanitarian, militarily, it's important
for those reasons. 
TONY
BLAIR: I don't think there is any doubt at all that the military momentum
is now moving against the Taliban, and that is because of the concerted
effort that is being made from the air strikes, from the Northern Alliance,
from the other measures that we're putting in place. And I think together
with the growing diplomatic sense that it is possible to put together
a regime in Afghanistan not headed by Mullah Omar's Taliban. 
SPENCER
MICHELS: Meanwhile, U.S. planes continued heavy bombing of Taliban positions
in northern Afghanistan as well as near Kabul. The Pentagon showed video
of hits on a cave near Herat and on an antiaircraft vehicle north of
Kabul. The Defense Department said more than 8,000 bombs have been dropped
on Afghanistan since the war began 34 days ago. The number of American
forces in the region has grown to about 50,000, up from 30,000 a few
weeks ago. Some are being relieved as well. The Navy announced the carrier
U.S.S. Carl Vinson will head home Monday, to be replaced by the U.S.S.
John Stennis.
HARON
AMIN: Yes, it is. I was able to confirm that with our deputy defense
minister today. What had happened is that the last two days we had attacked
... to the south of the city and then we moved into ... the last formidable
position that the Taliban held, that enabled us to make the move and
route the airport to the city and the city has been right now confirmed
under our control. And our authorities are looking into the military,
as well as security aspects of the city, making sure that there would
be no counteroffensive staged by the Taliban against us. 
MARGARET
WARNER: Mike Vickers, the Pentagon, through American officials unnamed,
are now confirming that Northern Alliance forces are in the city, officially
as we saw the Pentagon won't confirm it. Any idea why? 
MICHAEL
VICKERS: Well I think a couple things. One, U.S. air strikes have shifted
from attacking infrastructure targets to Taliban front line positions
both in front of Kabul on the Shomali plain, but also around Mazar-e-Sharif.
I think that made a difference. Also, material assistance to the Northern
Alliance has stepped up substantially in the last couple weeks. I think,
again, that made a difference, and this capture of Mazar-e-Sharif will
open up even more assistance both humanitarian and military which is
a very good thing for the north of Afghanistan. 
ASHRAF
GHANI: The significance, first of all, is that the ranks of the Taliban
would have to think twice about their claims, that they're invulnerable.
If this breakthrough occurs, the psychological impact, first, on northern
Afghanistan and then on the rest of Afghanistan could be quite significant
because it would mark a change in direction. 
MICHAEL
VICKERS: Well, I think it's an important psychological boost for the
U.S. and the broader coalition, and it also may put to rest some claims
that the American strategy was not working, that the strategy based
on air power, Special Forces operations and most importantly the Afghan
opposition would be insufficient. If they're able to take Mazar-e-Sharif
and then follow it up with other territory, Kunduz perhaps in the north
or Herat in the west, and then Kabul and then if the South goes as Professor
Ghani just said, then the strategy will look like a very good one and
we may not need U.S. ground troops. 
ASHRAF
GHANI: Both yes and no, in the sense that any conquest of territory
by the opposition to the Taliban and loss of territory by the Taliban
means they're weakening. On the other side, the key strength of the
Taliban has been this southern Afghanistan and it's most likely that
Osama bin Laden, al-Qaida and the rest of the Taliban are in the southern
part. Unless the southern part really gets loosened from under the control
of the Taliban, the issue of the future of the Taliban would not be
settled. 
That
split, that rift, is going to really set the stage for defection rates
and a rift within the Taliban. Hopefully the emergence of Pashtuns who
are going to be looking towards a political settlement with the united
front. 
MARGARET
WARNER: And what is the Northern Alliance's next military target? There
are reports that your troops are really massing right around Kabul.