SHIELDS AND BROOKS

	March 2, 2004
	Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., could win the Democratic presidential nomination with victories in Tuesday's ten Super Tuesday primaries. Jim Lehrer discusses Tuesday's primary battle and the general election ahead with syndicated columnist Mark Shields and New York Times columnist David Brooks.

JIM LEHRER: And finally Super Tuesday. Here's what we know so far. John Kerry is now project the winner in Ohio's Democratic presidential primary. But it remains too close to call in Georgia between Kerry and John Edwards. Howard Dean won his home state of Vermont. His name remained on the ballot even after he quit the race last month. There are seven more states to be heard from tonight: California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island. Now we get some thoughts from Shields and Brooks. Syndicate columnist Mark Shields and "New York Times" columnist David Brooks. David, a super Tuesday for john Kerry. DAVID BROOKS: So far, it's starting out pretty well. A good way... day for Howard Dean. I think John Kerry in Ohio was a big win. John Edwards spent a lot of time and money there. He thought the trade issue would work for him quite well there. The AFL-CIO came out and helped Kerry as a crucial moment. Dick Gephardt came out and helped Kerry. Ohio is a big win for Kerry. This whole thing might be over. JIM LEHRER: Edwards really had to do well or he had to win Ohio did he not? Isn't that what you thought? MARK SHIELDS: I thought Ohio was the lynch pin tonight for John Edwards -- not simply to survive but to emerge as a real challenge to john Kerry. He has written off both New York and California and they have large, enormously large states and they require very deep pockets and Kerry had the advantage as the frontrunner and the dominant free media beneficiary. So Ohio is the natural battleground. The state that has lost 272,000 jobs, 166,000 manufacturing jobs in the last three years. So there was a message where John... a state where John Edwards' message to the hurt and the hurting was going to win a response, it should have been Ohio. JIM LEHRER: And to demonstrate... the only state he's won is South Carolina. As I just said, Georgia at this stage is still early, still too close to call between the two of them. Ohio is important because it was outside the South, right? DAVID BROOKS: Right. Absolutely. It was a spot where he needed to win some sort of independence. One of the things he's done in Georgia which is why it's still too close to call there is he's doing well among independence. He's doing well where independents vote in the Democratic primaries like Wisconsin. He's doing extremely well there. The whole argument about Kerry is electable; he can win votes in the center. But, as we've seen throughout this whole process and including tonight John Edwards does well in the center. John Kerry does much less well in the center. That's the one chink in Kerry's armor tonight. JIM LEHRER: If it turns out to be an almost Kerry sweep tonight and maybe Edwards leaves or whatever, we'll know that later tonight and probably tomorrow, what kind of legacy will he leave behind him in this race? MARK SHIELDS: Well, John Edwards upset the pundit class which in itself is a positive achievement any time. He was written off as a one-term senator and certainly eclipsed an early... the early analysis game by Joe Lieberman who had run for vice president in 2000, by Dick Gephardt who had been House Democratic leader - a candidate in 1988, by Howard Dean. I want to say something nice to the voters of Vermont. It was sort of a reminder that Howard Dean had given the Democratic Party a little spine in this election. And good for them for remembering him. But who emerged as a frontrunner. Here he is, he's one of the finalists is John Edwards -- didn't do it on deep pockets -- did it essentially on the strength of his own campaign message and his remarkable ability to connect with voters. In states where John Edwards had the time to retail those states, he did exceptionally well. Obviously you can't retail ten states especially... today, Jim, more people are voting than in any day of the year except the second of November. There are more states voting than any day of the year except November 2 in the presidential election. It's impossible to spend any quality face time with any real number of voters. JIM LEHRER: What's your take on Edwards, David? DAVID BROOKS: I think he originally started out as the young Clinton, as the next Clinton, the charming guy from the south who was really smart. I think he was actually favored by the pundits early on including people like me because.... JIM LEHRER: You said many nice things about him. DAVID BROOKS: I said many nice things about him because I thought he was somebody who does not look down on people. I had a conversation with him a year-and-a-half where I said what's the major party with the Democratic Party? He said snobbery. Some people think the Democratic Party of San Francisco, L.A. and New York and looks down on people and the rest of the country. He has a hair trigger sensitivity to snobbery. That's genuine. I think that's why he connects with people. He represented sort of regular people, not in a calculated way - in an innate way. He did that very well. His other legacy I would say aside from his fantastic speaking style is his positive nature and his upbeat nature which has now infected the campaign. We'll see if it lasts beyond tonight but that did shape the campaign that he never said a nasty word about anybody else which people liked about him. JIM LEHRER: Now the winner or supposed winner tonight will be John Kerry. What do you have to say about him? I mean you talk about somebody who started high, went down to the bottom before Iowa and then been back up and rising ever since. What's your explanation for that? MARK SHIELDS: Well, I mean, John Kerry was in a perfect position by the strength of his campaign he made a couple of key moves. First of all, he bet everything on Iowa. Howard Dean had roared to a big lead in New Hampshire where John Kerry had been expected to win as the.... JIM LEHRER: In the early days. MARK SHIELDS: And Kerry bet the farm on Iowa. He moved his whole operation there. He moved all his hopes. He moved there. He was in a perfect position to take advantage of the murder-suicide pact that developed informally between Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean when they went into a demolition derby between the two of them. Secondly in a year... in the first presidential election after Sept. 11 when commander in chief and national security were going to be important and relevant to voters Democrats were mindful of the fact that his own personal biography of personal history and valor gave him the credential which they felt their standard bearer in their party needed. JIM LEHRER: What would you add to that? DAVID BROOKS: I would underline that last point. I think it's hard for Republicans to understand the hunger that one sensed in the Democratic rallies for someone who was a genuine patriot who was unquestioned to his service to his country in a military way. The second thing I'd say about Kerry was the experience. There's a lot of criticism of Washington insiders. John Kerry is a Washington insider. Yet as one went out on the campaign trail, you might attack Washington, people might laugh at Washington. In the post 9/11 world they want some sense of sobriety and gravitas and experience. John Kerry could rely on that no matter what happened. That's the one area where John Edwards could never compete. I think that was that weight, the heft of his 20 years here which sort of has carried him. JIM LEHRER: What is your guess as to what kind of candidate he'll be against George W. Bush? DAVID BROOKS: I think as he was to Howard Dean, the guy who is the acceptable alternative he'll be the acceptable alternative to George Bush. If people decide that Bush has not been a good president or they do not want him for the next four years John Kerry is the kind of guy you could say fine. We'll go with this guy. I don't think he gets anybody excited. I don't think too many people love the guy. You would feel if you were turned off by Bush that he's safe. JIM LEHRER: Do you agree? MARK SHIELDS: I do agree. Both Republican managers and Democratic managers after the 2000 campaign and the post election analysis agreed that Al Gore lost the election in the five in the sense that he did not... he just kind of went dark. He went quiet and allowed the Bush folks to define him and to define the terms of the debate in 2000. That will not be the case in 2004. Whatever John Kerry does, he will not be somebody who will allow himself to be defined. He will not be a passive challenger. He will be... I think the need for John Kerry at this point is to offer a positive message of the country absent George Bush. I mean... in other words, this is where I want... if you could go through six paragraphs without mentioning George W. Bush and say this is the kind of America that I know we want to build, I think that's the best thing he could do for his candidacy. JIM LEHRER: We'll pick up this conversation tomorrow night. Thank you both very much.