CAMPAIGN 2004

	February 5, 2004
	Margaret Warner discusses the campaign in Michigan, Maine and Washington state with political reporters Chris Christoff of the Detroit Free Press, Jeff Tuttle of Maine's Bangor Daily News and Joel Connelly of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Background report.

MARGARET WARNER: Two hundred and twenty-eight Democratic delegates are at stake this weekend in Michigan, Washington state and Maine -- nearly as many as were chosen in seven states this past Tuesday. Two major differences: All three weekend contests are caucuses, not primaries; and to conserve cash, none of the candidates are airing TV ads. For an on-the-ground view of these contests, we turn to three political reporters: Chris Christoff of the Detroit Free Press, Jeff Tuttle of the Bangor Daily News, and Joel Connelly of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Welcome, gentlemen, to you all. Let's start with having you give me a sense of the political landscape in your state. Joel Connolly, beginning with you. Who are the folks who are going to be going to these caucuses in Washington on Saturday and what issues really matter to them? JOEL CONNELLY: Washington has historically had very sparsely attended caucuses. Perhaps 30,000 party loyalists attending. We have a very, very strong liberal tradition, liberal left tradition here, strong antiwar movements. Heck, 65 years ago James Farley, FDR's postmaster general, talked about 47 states and the Soviet republic of Washington. In this antiwar atmosphere Howard Dean's campaign blossomed for a long time. People produced lots of meet-ups large crowds for him. Kerry has come on very strong in recent days. We have a Kucinich movement, perhaps a cult here, as well as very strong volunteer movement for General Clark, one his headquarters in Little Rock never bothered to nurture. MARGARET WARNER: Are there any issues other than the war for instance economic issues? JOEL CONNELLY: That is an interesting question because we have lost something like 85,000 manufacturing jobs in the state since George Bush took office, lots of them in the aircraft industry. Our manufacturing section is hurting, our unemployment down 4.5 percent in the '90s is above 7 percent now. You have a jobs bread and butter facet to the issue agenda here, but again a very strong antiwar presence in the Democratic Party dating all the way back to Vietnam. MARGARET WARNER: All right. Chris Christoff, give us the same thumbnail portrait of people who are going to participate in Michigan this weekend and what issues are driving them. CHRIS CHRISTOFF: Originally when the state party set up Internet voting and mail-in voting system as well as the caucus precincts they were talking about turnouts upwards of 400,000 voters. Well that's been greatly scaled back now that John Kerry is showing in the polls to have over 50 percent, in some cases 58 percent lead or percentage of the votes in a huge lead over Howard Dean a distant second. So now they're talking about maybe 150,000, 200,000, max. With the candidates not even barely showing up here before the caucus on Saturday, those hopes for a huge record breaking turnout seem to be diminished. Those that do turn out will probably be the same Democratic crowd that turns now the Michigan; it will be heavily dominated by labor union members. Michigan is a diverse state. You're going to see much more African Americans voting here than you have seen in many of the previous states in the primaries and caucuses. And that will be the case again. As far as issues, here the economy and health care are very dominant issues. Michigan has been losing jobs, some say hemorrhaging. I saw new numbers showing in November, December last year Michigan lost 32,000 jobs, its lost 175,000 jobs in the last four, five years. It's a real concern. We're seeing jobs leaving the state almost weekly it seems and health care also is a major issue here in Michigan. The war effort -- rather the Iraq war -- I think that's an issue everywhere probably secondarily Michigan. MARGARET WARNER: All right. Jeff Tuttle, how about in Maine in terms of who will participate and what issues are driving them? JEFF TUTTLE: Maine sounds a lot like Washington actually. As far as participation I think they're looking at ... 1992 was their highest for a caucus in Maine, and I think that was around 12,000 people, 12,000 delegates. And who will participate -- the progressive wing of the party and there is a substantial progressive wing in Maine. That's what some candidates like Dennis Kucinich are counting on. Dennis Kucinich has been to the state six times since the campaign started and Howard Dean has been a few times. Like you said in your opening, John Kerry was there today and Ted Kennedy is coming tomorrow. MARGARET WARNER: What about the issues? The economy for instance in Maine, a huge issue? JEFF TUTTLE: Jobs is a big issue. I think we lost 18,000 manufacturing jobs in the last three years. Percentage-wise that put Maine near the top of the list as far as the nation goes. It's a big issue. The Iraq war is also an issue. The coast of Maine is very liberal progressive if you will and that's an issue down there and that spells you know candidates such as Dennis Kucinich and Howard Dean banking on that in Maine. MARGARET WARNER: All right. Joel Connelly, back to you in the state of the Washington, we all noticed that Kerry and Dean made it a point Tuesday night when they received the results they were already in Washington state. Are they the two main candidates making the push there? Is there anyone else there actively campaigning? JOEL CONNELLY: They are the two main candidates making the push. While Dean has drawn the line in the sand in Wisconsin, I tend to think his faith may be decided a little further back in the alphabet in Washington. Kerry has sensed the opportunity. We've had public officials endorsing him in leaps and bounds -- our governor leaping on board and the junior U.S. senator bounding onto his campaign with three members of Congress. So Kerry senses the opportunity to win in the heart of Deanland. Again, Kucinich is a blip here. His followers cheering him -- it was an interesting thing at lunch today getting red meat from a vegan. But at the same time the Clark campaign which grew a great deal has been completely ignored by Little Rock; they've never sent him up here. Kerry looking for the kill; Dean looking to hold on in a place where he had 8,000 people cheering him last summer. MARGARET WARNER: Edward's presence -- the state party chairman in Washington was quoted as saying and I think he's a Dean man, "We're known for our edgy liberalism." Washington has a history going for maverick candidates, doesn't it? JOEL CONNELLY: We defied the state party chairman and went for Gary Hart over Walter Mondale. Bill Clinton was a poor fourth in the caucuses here in 1992. The Republicans are influenced by the religious right to the extent on Super Tuesday, in 1988 George Bush senior scored 16 victories and Pat Robertson won Washington. It will be interesting and a fundamental question here is whether our Democrats will show the strain of practicality and how could I put this, the Latin word gravitas, their counterparts did in New Hampshire and whether we continue to swim against the tide. MARGARET WARNER: Mr. Christoff, in Michigan as we reported today Howard Dean began the day there, did two, three events, but then did leave and cancel the evening events. My question is, has the air totally gone out of the Dean efforts? What about for instance the service unions that have endorsed him? Did they fold their tents? Is there still a real contest there? CHRIS CHRISTOFF: They're not folding their tent. From what I have seen the Dean followers are a diehard bunch and firmly behind their guy. Whether they get to the polls and vote or vote by Internet before the deadline remains to be seen. The service union activists are really going to work as much as they can, but we're not seeing the kind of extensive phone banking for instance you might see in some elections. Some may feel they're going through the motions. The polls that came out in the last couple of days following the results from Tuesday and New Hampshire and Iowa I think really have deflated the Dean effort in Michigan. Remember he was far ahead here just a month ago and I think you're right the air somewhat went out that have to that. The Kerry bandwagon turned into a freight train running through the state, picking endorsements. He just got the formal endorsements of the two Democratic senators on top of the governor appearing with him Friday on a bus tour through the state. So it was almost a perfunctory appearance by Howard Dean today. MARGARET WARNER: The big industrial unions which all endorsed Gephardt, are they sitting on sidelines, there are reports Dick Gephardt might come to Michigan tomorrow and endorse Kerry. What impact might that have? CHRIS CHRISTOFF: Actually the big industrial unions, the UAW, most notably in Michigan which is arguably the most potent union in terms of getting votes out, they didn't endorse anybody. They sat on the fence. When Dick Gephardt got out of the race I think that took a little steam out of some of its membership. The head of the AFL-CIO in Michigan said he's voting for John Edwards. Some people think Edwards made a mistake not coming to Michigan at all, that he has some good support here that might have been growing allowing him to make a better shown than some expected. MARGARET WARNER: A brief question to you also. What about Al Sharpton? I know he was campaigning there today, you have a large African American population, is he much of a factor? CHRIS CHRISTOFF: No. MARGARET WARNER: That was short. Finally Jeff Tuttle in Maine, does Kerry or anybody else any, have any kind of institutional support in terms of labor unions or whatever that is going to turn out the vote for him? JEFF TUTTLE: Kerry got some key endorsements today in Maine. As far as unions, the local unions pretty much stayed out of it. He got an endorsement from the governor and former Senator Mitchell, two very influential people in the campaign. Came late in the game so their effect remains to be determined Sunday. MARGARET WARNER: Maine also has a reputation of going for independent candidates. I noticed for instance Maine gave Ross Perot 15 percent of the vote in '92. Are the Dean folks counting on that at all? JEFF TUTTLE: The Kucinich people consistently reference past primaries where Jerry Brown did very well in Maine and Jesse Jackson did very well in Maine and the Dean campaign and the Kucinich campaigns are hoping that will hold true Sunday. MARGARET WARNER: All right, thank you all three very much.