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REGION: North America
TOPIC: Politics
Online NewsHour
TRANSCRIPT
Originally Aired: January 8, 2008
Analysis

Clinton, McCain Pull Out Wins in New Hampshire Primary

Sen. Hillary Clinton won Tuesday's New Hampshire primary in a surprising victory over Sen. Barack Obama, while Sen. John McCain took first place in the Republican race. After on-the-ground reports, political analysts Mark Shields and David Brooks offer perspective on the outcome of the nation's first primary.
Mark Shields and David Brooks
 
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JIM LEHRER: But now some analysis from Shields and Brooks, syndicated columnist Mark Shields, New York Times columnist David Brooks.

Words like stunning, startling, unexpected in both of these results tonight, David. What words would you add or subtract to that?

DAVID BROOKS, Columnist, New York Times: Well, especially on the Democratic side. I was thinking it's a good night for Freud, in part because I'm going to spend the next year in analysis trying to figure out why we were so wrong.

No, all the pundits were wrong. All the polls were wrong. They had Obama up 9 percent. The campaigns were wrong. The Clinton people were convinced they were going to lose this. And so there's going to be a lot of analysis after this.

But the second reason Freud comes to mind is his questions, what do women want? And the group that powered Hillary Clinton to this victory was high school-educated women, the so-called waitress moms, who have been there with Hillary before, and they stuck by her here, even with the Obama wave and all the Obama mania.

They really helped her win tonight. They stuck with her, and it that was that group of people who really propelled this victory.

JIM LEHRER: But the polls didn't pick it up, Mark.

MARK SHIELDS, Syndicated Columnist: Did not pick it up, Jim. This is what New Hampshire does.

New Hampshire did it coming out of Iowa in 2000. The favorite, George Bush, stopped by John McCain. Did it to Bob Dole in 1996, Pat Buchanan. Did it to Walter Mondale, heavily favored Iowa winner, with Gary Hart.

I mean, the New Hampshire voters are an independent group, and they really threw a curveball at all of us tonight.

I think David's point about gender is crucial. Gender did not work for Hillary Clinton in Iowa. It worked for her in New Hampshire. We know what happened; we don't know why.

Two things about Barack Obama. He did bring in new voters, and he's done that twice now, and that's something that no Democratic candidate -- he had people registering, thousands of people registered today to vote. Three out of five of those who did voted for Obama. That is a very significant contribution to this political party.

And, finally, I think what he faces is, he's got to figure out how he wins Democrats, because just like John McCain...

JIM LEHRER: And independents.

MARK SHIELDS: ... he can't be nominated unless he wins -- he wins independents. He wins independents overwhelmingly. But John McCain wins independents, and he doesn't win Republicans necessarily, and that's the challenge that Obama faces after tonight.

Mark Shields
Mark Shields
Syndicated Columnist
I think there's no question she was a different candidate in that last week up there, and it apparently connected with an awful lot of voters, Jim. And that was missed by most, virtually every pollster and every pundit.

Clinton: 'I found my voice'


JIM LEHRER: OK.

Now, a jubilant Senator Clinton just spoke to supporters on the campus of Southern New Hampshire University in Manchester.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), New York: I come tonight with a very, very full heart. And I want especially to thank New Hampshire. Over the last week, I listened to you and, in the process, I found my own voice.

I felt like we all spoke from our hearts, and I am so gratified that you responded. Now, together, let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me.

For all the ups and downs of this campaign, you helped remind everyone that politics isn't a game. This campaign is about people, about making a difference in your lives, about making sure that everyone in this country has the opportunity to live up to his or her God-given potential. That has been the work of my life.

We are facing a moment of so many big challenges.

JIM LEHRER: Mark, David, quickly, among other things, does this result on the Democratic side mean there's going to be a full-fledged campaign for the Democratic nomination, and probably a two-person race?

DAVID BROOKS: You're asking me to make a prediction now after having gotten this one so wrong? I think one of the things we've learned is that each state is now unique and that the idea that momentum is going to carry across and we're going to have this wave of sweeping across a whole bunch of states, don't count on it this year. The formulas are out.

The line she just gave, "I found my voice," I think she got to the essence of what happened. In the last couple of days, Hillary Clinton was angry at the debates. She teared up the other day. Somehow, people sensed the authenticity which they weren't sure was there. And I think we may look back at those things and say she did find her voice.

JIM LEHRER: Do you agree, found her voice?

MARK SHIELDS: I think there's no question she was a different candidate in that last week up there, and it apparently connected with an awful lot of voters, Jim. And that was missed by most, virtually every pollster and every pundit.

I was struck tonight when she used the phrase, "This campaign is about people, about making a difference in your lives." She began this campaign with the statement, "I'm in it to win."

And campaigns are about the voters, and candidates frequently forget that. She may have learned that in New Hampshire.

Gwen Ifill
Gwen Ifill
Senior NewsHour Correspondent
We found out a lot of people didn't decide here in New Hampshire who they were voting for until the end. Those people were not reflected in any polls. So this is what the campaign is saying, that they got back on her game.

Polls fail to predict outcome


JIM LEHRER: OK.

Now, more now on the reactions in and from New Hampshire from our doubles team of Ifill and Woodruff, and to Ray Suarez.

RAY SUAREZ: And, of course, our Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff are both in Manchester, New Hampshire.

Gwen, let me start with you. Did Hillary Rodham Clinton do something different in the last few days? Was there a pivot point in this campaign? Or was this just something that was missed by the public opinion research? What's the Clinton campaign saying?

GWEN IFILL: Well, let's start by talking about the public opinion research. I think that David and Mark noticed this, but I went back and looked it up. There were nine separate polls that showed Barack Obama leading this race by anywhere from 5 to 13 percentage points.

The Clinton people certainly had internal polling that supported that notion. They were very depressed.

I've been talking to them all week. They were certainly bracing for bad news.

Now, what they're saying -- and who knows, but this is what they're saying -- is that when Hillary Clinton betrayed herself, betrayed that emotion yesterday, it wasn't exactly tears. But when she choked up when talking about what a hard time this campaign had been and how tired she was, that that somehow appealed to a lot of these late-deciders.

We found out a lot of people didn't decide here in New Hampshire who they were voting for until the end. Those people were not reflected in any polls. So this is what the campaign is saying, that they got back on her game.

When she says she found her voice, when she made the comment in her acceptance speech just now that she wants to give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire gave her, that was also alluding back to 1992 when her husband called himself the comeback kid when he came in second to Paul Tsongas in that race.

Now, Bill Clinton was a big factor in the last few days. He was generally considered by many people not to be very helpful. But there's no way to measure it until we start looking at these numbers in great detail tomorrow where he helped, where she helped, and where this incredible gender turnout, which the Clinton people were playing to, finally helped.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, you mentioned that even they were bracing for very bad news today. Word started to trickle out of the Clinton campaign that there was going to be some rescheduling, some rethinking, some restructuring. Now that the good news has come, are they starting to back off those words?

GWEN IFILL: Well, some of those words were overstated and not exactly proved. The only thing that the Clinton administration -- the only thing that the Clinton campaign said today they were going to do for sure was bring on board Maggie Williams, the senator's former White House chief of staff, and bring on Doug Sosnik, who was a former adviser.

Didn't say what roles they were going to play, didn't say campaign managers heads were rolling. That was what a lot of reporters were saying.

I do think that what you were really trying to figure out here is whether the good news means that they'll stop and take stock in a different way tomorrow than they would have today. I think that's a safe bet.

Judy Woodruff
Judy Woodruff
Senior NewsHour Correspondent
They are saying that it means the message resonates, that he [McCain] will keep America safe, that he's the candidate of national security, and, frankly, that he's still liked here in New Hampshire.

McCain stages comeback


RAY SUAREZ: Let's move on to Judy.

Judy, what's the McCain campaign saying about how they put together their victory tonight?

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, I'll answer that, but, first, I have to tell you, Ray, that the people in all the Republican campaigns are talking about what's happened over on the Democratic side.

It has not gone unnoticed. It's a head-turning result for all the reasons you've been discussing tonight on the program. And it means recalculating and calculating again for these Republicans.

The McCain people -- Gwen just used the term "comeback kid" for Hillary Clinton. We heard that term from John McCain tonight. He said, "I feel a little strange using the term 'kid,' but, yes, I'm the comeback kid."

In his case, eight years after he won New Hampshire, and earlier this year having his campaign virtually collapse, most people wrote his campaign off. He had spent the money that he had. He had to lay off all but just the bare bones staff.

And the people working for him today through Iowa, particularly through New Hampshire, on a shoestring, and he still managed to pull this off.

They are saying that it means the message resonates, that he will keep America safe, that he's the candidate of national security, and, frankly, that he's still liked here in New Hampshire.

RAY SUAREZ: Judy, Gwen, thank you both.

David Brooks
David Brooks
The New York Times
And the big difference between McCain now and McCain in 2000 is that, in 2000, McCain had very little traditional Republican support. This year, he does very well among traditional Republicans, as well as he does almost among independents.

Looking ahead


JIM LEHRER: And now some final thoughts from Mark and David.

Mark, let's take the Republican race first. Play out a scenario, a McCain scenario, the man who won tonight, play out a McCain scenario from here on.

MARK SHIELDS: Well, Bill McInturff, the very respected Republican pollster, has a theory that there's always one for Column A and one from Column B, one conservative, one sort of moderate Republican, that John McCain is the more moderate independent candidate in the field.

Rudy Giuliani was his threat. Rudy Giuliani did not have a good night, has not had a good week. So McCain has to figure out how he gets one on one with either Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee.

I think what he'd like to do most of all is to defeat Romney in Michigan. And if he does that, I think that really is a serious blow to Romney. Romney has deep pockets, but nobody wants to continue to spend if there isn't a realistic chance over a sustained period. I think that's John McCain's best bet.

And then onto a showdown, probably, in South Carolina. I mean, Fred Thompson tonight took an awful beating. He got 1 percent of the vote in New Hampshire.

He's talked about going to South Carolina. That becomes unrealistic.

JIM LEHRER: How do you see McCain? Can he legitimately be labeled the frontrunner now?

DAVID BROOKS: I think so. I think it's still close. I think Mike Huckabee is terribly strong. I don't think Romney is very strong anymore.

His campaign was really based on the first two. And he poured tons of money. And the underlying issue was character for him. People don't trust him. And they're not going to trust him further down the road. I don't see why that would happen.

He'll continue because he has the money. Might as well give it a shot, the world of surprises. But you have to think McCain and maybe Huckabee, and also Romney, but what you'll begin to see is a lot of mainstream Republicans shifting behind McCain.

And the big difference between McCain now and McCain in 2000 is that, in 2000, McCain had very little traditional Republican support. This year, he does very well among traditional Republicans, as well as he does almost among independents.

So he's a much broader candidate than he was in 2000. There's less excitement and less buzz around him, but there's more respect, respectability, more staying power for his campaign.

JIM LEHRER: OK, Mark, take us now to a possible Democratic scenario, assuming that it's Clinton versus Obama and vice versa at this point.

MARK SHIELDS: Well, I think all of a sudden Nevada came into play. It was widely expected that if Barack Obama won in New Hampshire that the Culinary Workers Union, which is in Las Vegas, 60,000 strong -- Jim, that's the hotel and restaurant workers -- and in a caucus state that has no tradition of participation, it's a very politically sophisticated, engaged operation, that endorsement probably by itself would have been crucial.

JIM LEHRER: And they were expected to go to Obama.

MARK SHIELDS: I think the case for not endorsing got a lot stronger tonight. So now Nevada becomes a battleground before South Carolina.

Prior to tonight, the Clinton people did not see any place before the 5th of February where they -- expecting that defeat in New Hampshire, which never occurred -- where they could prevail, that they wanted to keep it alive until getting to the 5th of February.

But they know South Carolina. African-American voters in South Carolina are just going to overwhelmingly turn out for Barack Obama, first African-American candidate with a realistic chance of being nominated, elected president of the United States.

And so now I think Nevada becomes a lot more crucial.

JIM LEHRER: Does it also get rough between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton now, David?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, the Clinton people were about to go very negative on Obama when they thought they were in desperate straits. They may have pulled back a little. Who knows? But their anger is up. And Obama has really got to, as Mark said, fill out his resume.

I'm looking further down the road to the February states, the big states, where at the moment Clinton has these huge leads, 20-point leads in California and states like that. And the presumption was that Obama, if he rolled through January, would end up taking those February states.

But if it's mixed through January, then those big states may stay strongly in the Clinton column, and then you'd have to regard her as the favorite. Those strengths will stay there.

JIM LEHRER: Bottom line, then, gentlemen, is we've got a very interesting time ahead of us.

MARK SHIELDS: Fascinating, it really is.

DAVID BROOKS: For weeks, weeks in advance.

JIM LEHRER: And nobody expected this to happen, except the two of you, of course.

MARK SHIELDS: David did, but he just didn't mention it.

JIM LEHRER: OK.

Well, good night to the two of you and, of course, to Gwen and Judy. You all have done a superb job in New Hampshire and Iowa before.

And, Ray, thanks to you, and everyone else who's been involved up to this point.

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Clinton, McCain Pull Out Wins in New Hampshire Primary



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