Campaigns Prep for Fla., S.C. Battles as Super Tuesday Looms

ADAM NAGOURNEY, Chief Political Correspondent, New York Times: We're not seeing that in gender politics, in terms of the Republican primary. Obviously, Cuban-Americans are a big group down here, and the candidates are competing pretty intensely among those.

But I don't think we have the sort of ethnic sort of tensions or overlays that we have on the Democratic side. There's other things going on here.

GWEN IFILL: Well, let's talk about the other things that are going on down there. You're on the ground. How are the Republicans? This is Rudy Giuliani's big stand. How is it going?

ADAM NAGOURNEY: This is the first day -- we've got a lot of contests, I guess, for today, Gwen. This is the first date where all the major candidates are playing full-out.

Romney's here. Giuliani has been here for a months, it seems like. Huckabee is here. McCain is here. So we're really going to get a chance to see how they all go up against one another.

Now, Giuliani, after having made an initial attempt to win, or at least do well in New Hampshire and doing really poorly there, has pretty much put all his cards on the table here.

He spent -- I think today was his 49th day in the state. He's spending tons of money here. He said pretty much that if he doesn't win here, he's not going to go on from here or won't be able to go on from here. So he probably has the most at stake in this race.

GWEN IFILL: Linda, is this a strategy that is working for Rudy Giuliani? The early polls don't seem to be -- the post-New Hampshire caveat on polls -- but they don't seem to be suggesting it.

LINDA DOUGLASS: Well, it certainly seems like a very high climb for him. I mean, obviously the polls show -- in spite of the fact that he's been there, what, 48 days or whatever it's been -- that that doesn't seem to be making him the automatic frontrunner there.

On the other hand, if somehow he wins Florida, he does live to fight again another day. I mean, there are states, certainly, where a victory in Florida could be very helpful to resurrect him, certainly New York, where he's trailing now in polls in his own home state, potentially in New Jersey, potentially in California.

So John McCain, I think, if he wins Florida, might be pronounced by all of us as the frontrunner and the establishment might coalesce around him and say, "Oh, my gosh, maybe we have a candidate now." But Giuliani, you know, if he does this, might go on.

ADAM NAGOURNEY: I mean, one of the big questions here -- this has not been a year where we've seen a lot of sort of bounce from campaign to campaign -- excuse me, from primary to primary, as we normally see.

But one of the big questions here is whether or not McCain's victory in South Carolina on Saturday, especially the sort of dramatic nature of it, after what happened eight years ago, is going to help him here.

And I think he does come in here with a head of steam. I saw him this morning. He was campaigning in Little Havana. I think he can be very strong here. So I think he's got a really good chance of winning here.

GWEN IFILL: Where does Mike Huckabee go?

ADAM NAGOURNEY: That's an excellent question. You know, I don't want to write anyone off or come near it, but I think that a lot of people were surprised that Huckabee did not win South Carolina. That was very fertile ground for him.

Now, I realize a large reason for that was because Fred Thompson was competing for a lot of his votes, and I suspect not incidentally the fact that it snowed in parts of the country where a lot -- of the state where his supporters were didn't help either.

But the fact of the matter is I have trouble seeing, going beyond South Carolina, where he could win. If he won in Florida, which is not impossible, it's because you have a multi-candidate field where you can probably win this race with 25 percent or 26 percent. And the Evangelical vote here is about 25 percent. So...

How does the February 5th states begin -- 22 states I think, at least -- begin to -- how do they begin to make their decisions about where to go and how to spend their money in those states?

LINDA DOUGLASS: Well, you know, it's got to be, first of all, delegate-driven, in part. I mean, now they're all talking about who's accumulating the most delegates, and that's why California is such a big prize for either of them.

And she's ahead there. They like Bill Clinton there. They've got great ties in the Latino community, as well. She already does well with women. So that's a -- you know, that is a very big state. Obama is going to try to compete with her in New York. That's a very big state.

There are, you know, states where a candidate can prove that they have general election appeal, states with more conservative Democratic voters. Obama, for example, is taking a shot at Missouri, because he wants to demonstrate, as he has in Iowa and in Nevada, that he can get rural voters.

He's been endorsed by Claire McCaskill, the Democratic senator there, and former Senator Jean Carnahan, so, you know, places like that that will make a show of electability.

GWEN IFILL: Let's talk about those endorsements from the so-called red states, Adam. We have seen quite a bit of people, kind of like a systematic rollout of people from the Midwestern, high mountain states saying, "We like Barack Obama." Does that translate into anything?

ADAM NAGOURNEY: You know, I agree with you. I think it's striking. And, in fact, I think no one has really sort of stepped back and remarked on what a big deal it is.

Normally I'm not a big fan of endorsements. I don't think they have that much of an impact. But I think it's part of the sort of like ratification of Obama and making him more sort of acceptable as an electable candidate, which I think was a lot of people's concerns early on.

So I do think it potentially is a big deal. And, you know, Claire McCaskill's in an ad that's showing here in Florida -- no, not in Florida, I guess in South Carolina -- which is a very effective ad.

GWEN IFILL: Actually, it's a national ad. We've seen it here.

ADAM NAGOURNEY: I was wondering why I was seeing it in Florida. Now I realize why.