Clinton, Obama Fight to Finish for Super Tuesday Voters

RAY SUAREZ: And joining me once again is Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group.

Evan, when you look at the ads the Democrats are running across the country, how are they different, and how are the buys different?

EVAN TRACEY, TNS Media Intelligence: Well, it's night and day. In fact, if you take one day last week, the 30th, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on their own outspent all the Republicans so far in Super Tuesday states...

RAY SUAREZ: Put together, you mean?

EVAN TRACEY: Put together, exactly. I mean, they each were over $1.3 million on that single day. They continue to spend heavily through the weekend and right up into the Feb. 5 states.

So there's really no comparison to what the Democrats are doing and what the Republicans are doing. Democrats are in a league of their own.

Now, granted, they didn't have to run a bunch of ads in Florida this time around, so they put their money to work in Feb. 5 states much earlier. And you'll see probably a combined $22 million spent by the Democrats -- or by the two Democrats, I should say -- in all of these Feb. 5 states.

RAY SUAREZ: But when you start earlier in 20-plus contests, can you spend as heavily? Can you saturate in the same way?

EVAN TRACEY: Absolutely. I mean, if you look at the way that the Democrats are spending, it's very interesting.

Senator Clinton has spent all across the state of California, for example, spent about almost $3.5 million in that single state. Senator Obama has spent about $2.5 million in that state, but most of his focus has gone into the big population centers of San Francisco and L.A.

So clearly, with proportional delegates, you can in some cases win by losing. If you can get some turnout in these large population centers, chances are you can score with delegates.

Conversely, if you run very well statewide, you may be able to keep your opponent from getting threshold in some of these states.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON: Americans still have that can-do spirit. We know you can't solve economic problems with political promises. The stakes are too high, the future too important.

We can turn our economy around and build a new age of prosperity. I'll bring more than my 35 years of experience to the White House: I will bring your voice and your spirit.

We're Americans, and together there's no problem we can't solve.

I'm Hillary Clinton, and I approve this message because the stakes have never been higher.

RAY SUAREZ: You mentioned Senator Obama spending heavily in big population centers. Is Hillary Clinton's strategy different?

EVAN TRACEY: Well, again, she's been buying more statewide, in places like California and even her home state of New York. Her biggest states right now are really California, Arizona, and New York, where she's been spending the most.

The theme you saw in this ad, very reminiscent of what she's done most of the campaign, which is, in essence, run general election ads. So you are seeing a contrast in buying strategy, and you're seeing a contrast in message strategy, as well.

RAY SUAREZ: Let's take a look at a Barack Obama ad. This one is called "Join."

SEN. BARACK OBAMA: I'm Barack Obama, and I approve this message.

We want an end to this war, and we want diplomacy and peace. Not only can we save the environment, we can create jobs and opportunity.

We're tired of fear. We're tired of division. We want something new. We want to turn the page. The world as it is not the world that it has to be.

RAY SUAREZ: Now, of course, that ad designed for running in Virginia, but, you know, with slight variations, one that's running in other places, right?

EVAN TRACEY: Yes, that ad actually was first out of the box for Senator Obama in many of these Super Tuesday states. Obviously, it was repackaged a little bit and run last night in about 24 different media markets on the Super Bowl.

So what you're seeing right now is candidates are really using this cash they have. I mean, both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama have the wind at their back, which is great for fundraising, great for messaging.

And to see Senator Clinton tonight buying an hour of time on one single cable channel, to in essence do her own town hall, and Senator Obama targeting the Super Bowl last night shows that Democrats really have a lot of money to put to work in these February 5 states.

And you can't take it with you. So that's why you buy the Super Bowl, if you can afford it.

RAY SUAREZ: And quickly, before we go, has there been a lot of outside spending from these independent groups on either the Republican or Democratic side?

EVAN TRACEY: Very little. Most of the outside spending right now has been about issue awareness, education, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, folks like League of Conservation Voters asking where all the candidates stand on things like global warming.

But you haven't seen the sort of swift boating that I'm sure is getting ready to go come general election, when we have two nominees that will be the target of each party's 527s.

RAY SUAREZ: Evan Tracey, once again, thanks a lot.

EVAN TRACEY: Great, thank you.

Same question to you, Linda, we asked when we talked about the Republicans: Does the reporting support the polling on what's going on among the Democrats now?

LINDA DOUGLASS, National Journal: If you mean that the reporting is that we have no idea what's going to happen tomorrow, that's probably the conventional wisdom.

JIM LEHRER: Well, that the gap between Clinton and Balz -- and Balz...

LINDA DOUGLASS: Congratulations.

JIM LEHRER: I mean, between Clinton and Obama is closing?

LINDA DOUGLASS: Oh, absolutely. And that is true state-by-state, in the states that have been taking polls. It certainly seems to be that way.

But everybody's eyes, I think, are on California tomorrow, because part of that is an expectations game. The Clinton people are trying to lower the expectations. The Obama people are now trying to lower the expectation that all of this excitement, with Kennedy's endorsement and Maria Shriver and so forth, doesn't mean he's going to win California.

And I think that's where the eyes are going to be. And 2.5 million Californians, Republicans and Democrats, have already voted in California by absentee ballot. So part of this race may already be resolved in California.

JIM LEHRER: But California is only one. And, Dan, how do we -- how are you experts, how are you great reporters going to figure out who wins and loses in the Democratic race tomorrow?

DAN BALZ, Washington Post: You know, Jim, this is a really difficult question. It's more difficult than doing the November election, because there, if somebody wins a state, they win all the electoral votes. Here, if somebody wins a state, they may barely win all the delegates.

And as we saw in the Nevada caucuses, win the vote, you may not even get a majority of the delegates. The other person might. It's a very complex system. And I think it requires a lot of caution, particularly earlier in the evening, on the part of all of us.

These polls close late out west. Caucuses are different than primaries. The rules are different in each state, so that the combination of the overall popular vote, the number of states won, and the number of delegates will go into, you know, some kind of sifting, and people will draw their conclusions as to who won.

Linda's right: The spinning that is already going on and the spinning we're going to see tomorrow night on the part of both campaigns to make whatever they do seem to be definitive is going to be enormous.

JIM LEHRER: Have you got a magic formula, Linda, that you've figured out?

LINDA DOUGLASS: Well, going back to the big states, the one with those 370 delegates, California -- if Obama were to win California, I think that might tip the balance of the conventional wisdom.

Again, it would be about delegates. It would be about popular votes. It would be about whether a candidate does something unexpected in a state where that candidate -- say, another candidate had been leading and a candidate does something unexpected. All of those components come into play.