 |
| Originally Aired: January 4, 2008 |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Historians Weigh the Impact of the 'Iowa Bounce' |
|
|
| With Iowa going for Sen. Barack Obama and former Gov. Mike Huckabee in their early caucuses, the state's perceived role as primary kingmaker has been the focus of renewed debate. Three presidential historians discuss the story behind the "Iowa bounce." |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
   
  |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
JIM LEHRER: And finally tonight, a coda on the Iowa bounce, that momentum that's supposed to propel caucus winners from New Hampshire and beyond. Ray Suarez has that look. RAY SUAREZ: To explore that, we turn to our presidential historian regulars: Michael Beschloss and Richard Norton Smith, scholar in residence at George Mason University. We're also joined by Beverly Gage, assistant professor of American history at Yale University. And, professor Gage, let's talk a little bit about what Iowa accomplishes once this great effort goes forward. Is it a giant-killer? Is it a king-maker? Has it really set certain races in motion? BEVERLY GAGE, Assistant Professor of American History, Yale University: Well, Iowa has a sort of mixed track record. Some years, it's been already enormously influential, Ray. So, it's not necessarily the place that the candidate is decided. What Iowa tends to do is to rule out particular candidates, partly because they cease to get a lot of money. So, it's not going to tell us who's going to win, but it will probably give us some sense of who is going to lose. RAY SUAREZ: So, Richard, a field-narrower? RICHARD NORTON SMITH, Scholar in Residence, George Mason University: It is. But I will tell you, on the Republican side, if you look at the last four really contested races, going all the way back to 1980, in all four instances, the Republican winner in Iowa lost in New Hampshire. And in only one of those four did the winner in Iowa go on to win the Republican nomination. And that is because you are talking about two very different sets of demographics. So, you're going to find a very different kind of -- a more independent, in some ways, a more mixed electorate in New Hampshire next week. MICHAEL BESCHLOSS, PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: The other thing we're not mentioning, though, is that, for instance, 1980 and 1988, there were a couple of weeks between Iowa and New Hampshire, so that when Ronald Reagan, for instance, in '80, lost in Iowa, there was time for him to recoup. Now we are in a very uncharted territory, because we may well see that, because Iowa comes so quickly before New Hampshire, it may have a much larger effect. I don't know if that's a great thing. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Effect of Iowa
RAY SUAREZ: Well, why do you say that?MICHAEL BESCHLOSS: Because Iowa should be one part of the process, not a screener, not the dominant part. This shows how well candidates basically campaign door to door. A primary shows how well they communicate on television, how they can deal with a mass electorate. So, they're different things that different states show. And, if you only hang it on one state that looks at candidates in one way, I think you're losing -- losing something in the process. RAY SUAREZ: Go ahead. RICHARD NORTON SMITH: I will stick up for my neighbors in New Hampshire, though, because I think New Hampshire is a very logical sequel. The fact is, in New Hampshire, it may be the one primary state in the country where people are accustomed to the kind of retail politicking, literally, where you run into a candidate half-a-dozen times in the length of a campaign. MICHAEL BESCHLOSS: But it's also a primary, not a caucus, so it does measure different things. BEVERLY GAGE: Right. RICHARD NORTON SMITH: Sure, it does. But it's as sophisticated an electorate, in terms of sifting. MICHAEL BESCHLOSS: No question. RICHARD NORTON SMITH: And, in fact, there may even be a factor that's hard to quantify. And that is a kind of backlash against Iowa. People in New Hampshire are pretty independent, and they don't like to be told by people in Iowa who they should vote for. MICHAEL BESCHLOSS: Sure. |
|
|
|
Unrepresentative electorate
RAY SUAREZ: Well, let's talk a little bit more about the backlash against Iowa, because, professor, I'm hearing a lot more this time around -- or at least it feels like a lot more -- that maybe Iowa shouldn't be the kickoff, because it is so unrepresentative of the rest of the country.Has -- have those complaints been around as long as the Iowa caucuses? BEVERLY GAGE: Well, certainly, if you set to define a rational, reasonable way to go about choosing party candidates, it is very unlikely that you would end up choosing the Iowa caucuses. But this is mainly a matter of tradition. This is something that has been around a while, and Iowa has fought very hard to maintain this position. The criticisms that you're seeing this year, I think, are going to have to have some sort of effect, criticisms about Iowa being an unrepresentative state, about the caucus system excluding any number of people who can't physically get to the caucus sites on caucus night to undertake this. And I think you have seen, over the course of this election, a bit of more soul-searching than you have seen in earlier years about the purpose that the primary process serves, about whether things have gotten a little out of hand. RAY SUAREZ: That critique about it being less representative of the rest of the country, does it bite more in 2008 than it might have in 1976? MICHAEL BESCHLOSS: May well, because we are more sensitive to that -- very few ethnics, Hispanics, African-Americans, a lot of farmers. But it's hard to think of one state that would be terrifically representative. My guess is, though, that, once we get to Super Tuesday next month, which is going to be dozen of states, one day, big primary, a lot of money, a lot of TV, it's going to get very ugly. In retrospect, Iowa is going to look awfully good. RAY SUAREZ: Richard Norton Smith, Michael Beschloss, professor Gage, thanks to you all. MICHAEL BESCHLOSS: Thank you. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
Historians Weigh the Impact of the 'Iowa Bounce' |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
