Political Analysts Examine Huckabee, Obama Victories in Iowa

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney addressed a gathering of his Republican followers after his second-place finish.

FORMER GOV. MITT ROMNEY (R), Massachusetts: ... is broken, and we're going to change that.

And Iowa said that tonight. Iowa said that tonight. On the Democratic side, a new face, Barack Obama. On our side, the top two contenders here, the top two finishers, both people from outside Washington.

You're going to see change in Washington because America recognizes that we're not going to change the nation and have a bright future if we just send the same old people back to Washington in just different chairs. That's not going to work.

We need new faces in Washington, and I intend to be one of them.

JIM LEHRER: Moments ago, Senator Barack Obama also spoke to his supporters in Des Moines. We'll have a clip from that in a moment.

But for now, we have some analysis from Shields and Brooks, syndicated columnist Mark Shields, he's in Manchester, New Hampshire, tonight, and New York Times columnist David Brooks. He's in Des Moines.

David, Obama's victory, why did it happen?

DAVID BROOKS, Columnist, New York Times: Well, it happened because people actually came to believe he had substance. They all knew he was enthusiastic. They all knew he had abstract visions for change.

But he persuaded them over the course of his rallies and over the course of the campaign that there was actually meat there and not just fluff. And he did it by building a big organization and now producing a tangible victory.

Now his campaign is not just a crusade; it's not just about nice words, like hope and change. It's actually a political movement. And so you have this idealism which now has substance.

And it's just big. It's just a big event. I'd be stunned if he lost in New Hampshire now. The country is going to -- the reality of it is going to be different than the prospect of it.

And, you know, an African-American man wins in a mostly white state. He beat some really good contenders, and he beats them pretty badly, actually.

MARK SHIELDS, Syndicated Columnist: A big, big event, Jim, a bigger victory for Barack Obama than John Kerry won four years ago and George Bush I won here, that Bob Dole won, other candidates who wanted to be elected president of the United States won in Iowa. It was impressive.

In real estate, it's location, location, location. In caucus politics, it's turnout, turnout, turnout. And Barack Obama's campaign and candidacy fired the passion of people to the point where they turned out in record numbers. It almost doubled.

And he did something, Jim, that was quite unlike anything I've ever seen before in American politics: He changed the electoral universe. It wasn't just Democrats who turned out for him. It was independents, and it was Republicans.

And the meaning of that, the possible implication of that in November, if he is the nominee, and he maintains that, it's a re-alignment in American politics.

JIM LEHRER: Yes.

Huckabee, what happened to him? What happened for him to cause this thing to turn around and for him to beat Romney, as largely, as well as he did tonight, David?

I'm sorry. Somebody was talking to me in my ear. My question sounded a little incoherent. That was the problem.

Go ahead, David. Huckabee, why did he do it?

DAVID BROOKS: This is not quite as big as the Obama victory, but it's also an earthquake. With two earthquakes in one night, this is political pundit heaven.

And I think he did it because, a, he understood that we have a leadership crisis in this country. People don't trust government. They are suspicious of Wall Street, and conservatives are suspicious of the leadership of the Republican Party.

And Huckabee went after all three. They threw everything they had at him. And now, especially the Republican establishment, their weakness has been exposed.

And then, secondly, he understood economic anxiety and the way it interplays with social anxiety: divorce, family breakdown, mixing in with job losses and wages. And so he talked about a language of economics that was tied in with values. And those two things were huge.

And then the final quick thing was he's the first ironic evangelical we've had, a very funny guy, at least on the national stage, funny guy, relaxed, not at war with modern culture. Those are the three big elements that Huckabee brought.

And I'm not sure he's going to get the nomination, but he's started a big change in the Republican Party.

JIM LEHRER: Mark, what's your analysis of Huckabee's victory?

MARK SHIELDS: If Obama represents hope -- and I think he did to an awful lot of people in Iowa this evening -- Mike Huckabee represents authenticity. There is about him just a realness, a likeability, yes, a sense of humor, self-deprecating, which is quite appealing, but a true compassionate conservative is how he came through.

And I really think he's onto something. I think David put his finger on what is a real fault line in the Republican Party at this point, Jim. And that is an economic populist who is openly skeptical, in many cases hostile, of what have been the entrenched economic policies and tilt of the Republican Party presents an enormous problem for this party.

And I think that the attempt of the establishment of the Republican Party to undermine Mike Huckabee's candidacy is not going to be a pretty sight. But a very, very impressive victory over Mitt Romney, who outspent him 20-1 in Iowa.

And Romney facing a very, very arduous trail at this point. If he loses in Iowa and then loses in New Hampshire, in his native New England, to John McCain, which is a distinct possibility, then his candidacy, I think, is if not mortally wounded, then severely damaged.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), Illinois: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Iowa. You know, they said this day would never come.

They said our sights were set too high. They said this country was too divided, too disillusioned to ever come together around a common purpose.

But on this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn't do.

You have done what the state of New Hampshire can do in five days.

You have done what America can do in this new year, 2008.

In lines that stretched around schools and churches, in small towns and in big cities, you came together as Democrats, Republicans and independents to stand up and say that we are one nation, we are one people, and our time for change has come!

JIM LEHRER: Judy Woodruff is also in Des Moines. She's at the Polk County Convention Center there. And Gwen Ifill is with Mark in New Hampshire.

Judy, first, Obama's point about this moves onto New Hampshire, what's the conventional reporting wisdom tonight after these results on Obama, specifically about what the impact of this could be in New Hampshire on Tuesday?

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, Jim, the conventional and the unconventional sense we're getting is that this gives Barack Obama an enormous boost going into the first primary state in New Hampshire.

His Iowa campaign staff, the people who were the brainpower behind it, as well as his national campaign staff, look at this as virtually revolutionizing the Democratic Party.

They talk about not only bringing out Democrats, but I think what we've been talking about tonight, bringing out people who had not participated in the elections, in the primary process, the caucus process here in Iowa. Over 200,000 people -- we don't have final numbers yet -- an unprecedented number turned out for these Democratic caucuses.

And they're saying that signals that Barack Obama is bringing people out to vote to participate who have never been considered part of this Democratic nominating process before and, therefore, they say, he has just gotten an enormous lift.

They are saying they were relentless in pushing his candidacy and going door to door, but they say the candidate himself is the one who did this, with his message of bringing the country together.