Tight Races in Missouri 'Bellwether' Echo Broader Trends

KENNETH WARREN: Well, it is a bellwether state, as you first said. One of the reasons is that the demographics in Missouri mirror the nation as a whole pretty well, in terms of party preference, in terms of white, African-American mix, and even urban rural mix.

So what we saw yesterday was pretty much of a mirror picture of the nation as a whole in Missouri. You saw that in the nation there was about 11 million votes cast in these primaries, and Hillary Clinton won 49 percent to 48 percent over Obama. In this state, it was almost identical, only it was flip-flopped, Obama won 49 percent and Clinton won 48 percent.

And by the way...

GWEN IFILL: And David -- I'm sorry, go ahead.

KENNETH WARREN: And, by the way, I could see that when the A.P., for instance, called this race for Clinton, I just knew that -- and I said so on the air -- that I could see that that wasn't going to happen, because the truth is, is that pre-election polls were showing that Clinton was not strong in the metro areas in Missouri. And those areas had not been counted.

On the other hand, Obama was quite strong in these areas. And as that vote came in, you could see that the African-American vote, which is larger in the metro areas, the more affluent, the educated, the professionals who were voting in the Democratic primary were voting much more for Obama than for Clinton.

GWEN IFILL: Dave Helling, let's break this down party-by-party. When you look at who voted for -- taking a look at some of these exit polls, which tell us a lot -- who voted for Barack Obama, and who voted for Hillary Clinton? What does that tell us about Missouri?

DAVE HELLING: Well, Gwen, it tells us that both candidates will have some work to do in November regardless of who the nominee is.

For example, Barack Obama did extraordinarily well with African-American voters in Kansas City and St. Louis. He rolled up an 80,000-vote margin in St. Louis City and St. Louis County. He only won the state by 10,000 votes, so you can see how important that was to him.

By contrast, Hillary Clinton carried more than 100 other counties in the state, all of the rural areas where Obama will have to do well in November and, conversely, she'll have to do well in the cities if she expects to win.

So I think both Democrats tonight are trying to study these returns to try and understand how they can motivate their opponents' voters, assuming that one or the other is the nominee for the Democrats.

KENNETH WARREN: Well, it shows you one thing, that there are two Missouris. One is a rural Missouri, where the religious fundamentalist vote is very strong. And Huckabee was winning and, all night long, Huckabee was winning.

But, again, I could see that the metro vote had not been counted, and Huckabee played terribly in St. Louis, in St. Louis County, and, of course, in Jackson County and Kansas City.

On the other hand, McCain and Romney have broader appeal, particularly McCain. And you could see that although McCain and Romney did not do very well in the rural areas, where most of the population is, in the urban areas or metro areas, McCain did very, very well and was able to pull out a very, very narrow victory.

GWEN IFILL: Why didn't Romney do better in Missouri, Dave Helling?

DAVE HELLING: Because he didn't campaign here; he made virtually no effort whatsoever. In fact, all of the Republicans -- I must say, I found it rather striking -- all of the Republican candidates sort of bypassed Missouri to a degree.

You saw a little from John McCain. Mike Huckabee did campaign in the central part of the state for a bit. But Mitt Romney didn't make any appearances here until the very end in St. Louis. He didn't buy much television time.

My guess is that, in retrospect, he might have wished that he had spent more time here, because he finished a very close third. And really Mitt Romney needed to win a state like Missouri to show that he had some national appeal.

He didn't do it here. That's reflected, I think, in all the conversation today, that perhaps Mitt Romney's campaign is closer to the end than to the beginning.

GWEN IFILL: Professor Warren, it feels like, as long as I've been covering politics, we have turned to Missouri as an example of the state that everybody should watch. They should use it as a template for their campaign, as a template for issues and policy.

What issues and policies drive Missouri voters that are representative of the nation?

KENNETH WARREN: Well, economics, for one, and the Iraq war now coming in a distant second. Missourians are concerned about economics like the rest of the nation, so economics has always played very well in Missouri.

On the other hand, people basically are not voting issues. People talk about issues, but I can tell you, as a pollster, that people know very little specifically about what issue stands the candidates hold, and they vote by and large general image.

People know, for instance, what Huckabee stands for. They know that he is a fundamentalist Christian, and they know that McCain is a war veteran and he has a different image, as well.

So what the people in the nation are going to be looking for is a person who's pretty much of a centrist who can have broad appeal. And that's why in Missouri, a bellwether state and a battleground state, it's going to be very difficult for the Democrat, as Kerry found out last time, to compete with someone who has broader appeal, such as McCain.

Both Obama and McCain will compete for the middle in Missouri, and it's going to be quite a tough battle. As I see it, Clinton does not have the same broad appeal. She appeals pretty well with the base, but she doesn't appeal to independents as Obama does in Missouri and in the nation as a whole, and as McCain does in Missouri and the nation as a whole.

DAVE HELLING: No, it doesn't lead the nation. It follows trends, because, as the professor pointed out, it demographically represents the entire country.

But I'd like to amplify a little bit about what he talked about in terms of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in this state in November. Both are going to have to work very hard to outperform John Kerry and Al Gore, both, of course, losing here to George Bush in 2000 and 2004.

And I think again tonight Hillary Clinton is trying to figure out a way to motivate the inner-city voters, the urban voters that Obama showed us yesterday. And by the same token, Obama is saying, "Look, I've got to win in these rural areas. How do I do that?"

And the big dilemma for the Democrats is, as long as this campaign goes on, the risk of them sort of picking on each other grows and the risk then of alienating the base of the other is potentially higher.

And I think you talk to Democrats in the Kansas City area, they're very worried that these two candidates don't go at each other for these next several weeks and months. Instead, they continue to sort this cordial exchange so that they don't alienate the other side when they need those voters in the fall.

GWEN IFILL: And, Professor Warren, on the Republican side, is there a difference in enthusiasm, passion, that drives -- we saw the turnout was very different on the Democratic side than the Republican side, not only in Missouri, but a lot of other states?

KENNETH WARREN: Well, that's right. And what polls are showing in Missouri, as well as nationwide, is that Democrats are very fairly enthusiastic and happy about their candidates, while the Republicans are not.

On the other hand, Missouri is socially more conservative than the rest of the nation, although it is demographically similar. And the reason John Kerry even withdrew from Missouri incidentally in early October in 2004 is that Kerry played very poorly among conservatives, even conservative Democrats, in the state of Missouri and felt he could really not compete and therefore should not waste his resources.

The same is going to happen with Clinton, I feel, if she wins the nomination, because image is very important. And the image of Clinton, Kerry, Michael Dukakis, and those kinds of candidates is that they are northeastern liberals -- despite their voting records incidentally -- northeastern liberals and they do not play well in the battleground states of the Midwest, while Obama would play better.

GWEN IFILL: Dave Helling?

DAVE HELLING: And the other thing to keep in mind is, while Republicans seem a little dispirited now in Missouri, they'll come home in November, particularly if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. I talked to lots of Republicans today. They say she can unite their party in the fall.

So I think it's a little early to judge the enthusiasm or energy of Republicans in the state of Missouri. They understand they have to win this state to win the White House, as well.

My guess is, after a couple of weeks of sort of kicking the dirt about their choices, they're going to unite behind John McCain, who's the presumptive nominee, and really take on the Democrat in the fall.