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| Originally Aired: January 3, 2008 |
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After Iowa, Focus Shifts to New Hampshire |
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| Gwen Ifill reports from New Hampshire on how primary voters in the state are viewing the Iowa contests and what's ahead for the state's primary on Jan. 8. Analysts Mark Shields and David Brooks discuss how the results in New Hampshire may differ from Iowa. |
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JIM LEHRER: We want to look past Iowa for a few moments to this next big event, which is New Hampshire, the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. And that's where Gwen Ifill is tonight. Gwen, how are you? GWEN IFILL: I'm fabulous, Jim. JIM LEHRER: And what are your expectations, not your own expectations, but the expectations you have picked up based on your reporting and the polls about, OK, here comes Iowa to New Hampshire, and that's going to mean what kind of ifs, and whatevers, and possibilities? GWEN IFILL: Well, you know, New Hampshire voters like to think they're the most serious voters in America, so they're going to be very happy to see Iowa done with. They think that Iowans are pikers. Mitt Romney arrives here at 1:30 in the morning. John Edwards' first event here is at 6:15 tomorrow morning. The candidates all land with all four feet in Iowa for what is essentially going to be a four-day-long weekend rush, kind of the lost weekend of this campaign, as they all try to get New Hampshire under their belts, depending on what happens, of course, tonight. And I had a party chairman tell me today it depends on how these candidates behave tonight. If they walk out and say, "Iowa, you have made me president," that will backfire in New Hampshire, because New Hampshire thinks that they own the right to do that. And, also, there's the detritus of history here. I mean, ask George H.W. Bush of 1992 about Patrick Buchanan suddenly coming out of nowhere, or John McCain coming out of nowhere against George W. Bush, or the presidents -- you know, Dukakis and Tsongas and Kerry who won in New Hampshire, but didn't become the president of the United States. So New Hampshire has a very nervy, kind of stubborn way of countering what they see coming out of Iowa, and they do it on purpose. |
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The New Hampshire electorate
JIM LEHRER: OK. What about the point that was made earlier about Iowa is all about the activists of the two parties? Is New Hampshire also about the activists, or is there more of a general voter population involved in this?GWEN IFILL: Less so, because it's an actual primary, where voters have all day to show up, cast their vote, go home. They have been used to -- even though this has been very Iowa-focused the last month or so -- they are used to having these candidates come into their living rooms. Rudy Giuliani was here this morning and is in Miami tonight, not so much in Iowa. Obviously, he has other priorities. But people like Mike Huckabee, who may do well in Iowa, may not do so well in New Hampshire, because he hasn't had the ground game here. He has a very light ground staff, doesn't have the evangelical base here. So it's a different kind of voter. They are every bit as engaged, but they are not necessarily likely to give the same people the same votes for the same reasons. JIM LEHRER: But is it as hands-on for the individual voter in New Hampshire as it is in Iowa? In other words, is it possible to see every one of these candidates, if you really want to, before this thing is over with? GWEN IFILL: Oh, yes, it's very hands-on. And here's the other big difference in New Hampshire: undeclared/independent voters. I think I read today one in four of the new voters -- of the voters who are a potential electorate here in New Hampshire are new voters since 2000. They've moved from Boston, say, or they've moved from other places, escaping high taxes. But you have a brand-new voter, and that includes people who just turned 18. They can vote in either the Democratic or the Republican primary. It's an open primary, which means that that could really help someone like John McCain, who's suddenly coming back and with a strong performance in Iowa tonight could capitalize on that. That could really help a Barack Obama, who seems to benefit more from young independents who seem to lean more Democratic in this state. In 2006 in New Hampshire, the state legislature turned hands, both chambers, from GOP to Democrat. They ousted two Republican members of Congress. All of a sudden, the state looks a little bit more Democratic-friendly than it has in the past years and this is something which I think a lot of the candidates coming out of Iowa are going to have to change gears pretty quickly. |
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Shifting campaign strategies
JIM LEHRER: Do you agree with that? You're in New Hampshire, Mark. Do you agree that there's some gear-changing now going to have to go on, no matter what happens tonight in Iowa?MARK SHIELDS: Oh, there is, Jim. I mean, for one thing, the word "ethanol" will not be uttered here in the next five days, after every candidate has genuflected before the ethanol industry and lobby in Iowa. Iowa produces more ethanol than any other state; New Hampshire doesn't. So that's off the boards. But Gwen is absolutely right. This is a state where -- I think there were 233,000 registered Democrats in the state in 2004. There were 228,000 people who voted in the Democratic primary. Now, states don't get those kind of turnout numbers in general elections. The people in New Hampshire take it enormously seriously. And the key, as Gwen touched on, was the undeclared voters, they're called up here, independents. In 2000, they gave John McCain his stunning 19-point victory over George W. Bush, and they can vote in either primary. If they had voted in equal numbers in the Democratic and Republican primary in 2000, Bill Bradley would have been beaten Al Gore and John McCain would have beaten George Bush, and it would have been an entirely different year. So the question is, are they going to vote this time in the Democratic primary, where they show in every poll a marked preference for Barack Obama, or are they going to return to their ways and pick up the old naval aviator who's staged a real comeback? I mean, that's a great comeback story. John McCain was written off for dead last summer, and he is resurgent in this state. |
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Courting independents
JIM LEHRER: Do you agree with that, David, that those are the two major possibilities, the ones that Gwen mentioned and that Mark just picked up on, that if McCain does fairly well in Iowa tonight, then he was already gaining in the polls in New Hampshire, this would really bring him back?And, also, the same thing, if Obama does well, that it could really help him, because he's not doing that well in New Hampshire, what do you think? DAVID BROOKS: Well, the two electorates sort of talk to each other, at least look at each other. McCain's surge in New Hampshire has affected Iowa, not so much that he's spent so much time here, but people see him surging there and they get more interested here. And I went to a McCain event last night, which was packed. On the other hand, if Obama wins here, I'd be stunned if he didn't win New Hampshire. He's surged in both places at about the same time, the same for Hillary Clinton. Now, there are some candidates where it's not automatic, and I would say that's Mike Huckabee and John Edwards. But for the other guys, if they win here, it's a huge effect in New Hampshire, and in part because the two are looking at each other. |
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Cultural differences
JIM LEHRER: Yes, how do you read the differences? You heard what Gwen said, the differences between Iowa and New Hampshire, David. How do you read the differences, just overall, politically?DAVID BROOKS: Well, as I said, I think that's a much more secular state, traditionally much more interested in taxes, much more individualistic, maybe having something to do with the geography. Iowa's much more communal, much more religious, much more culturally conservative, even on the Democratic side. There's really no bohemian culture here, bad for the restaurants. So there are some big cultural differences. Nonetheless, if you look at the polls of the candidates, they do tend to rise and fall together in both states at the same time. So there is some national voice there which I think they do represent. JIM LEHRER: You agree with that, Mark, do you not, there's a national voice, like it or not, with Iowa and New Hampshire coming together, particularly right now? They're even closer this time than they've ever been before. MARK SHIELDS: They are, Jim. And we are wired as a people; there's no doubt about it. We do see, when something happens in Dubuque, Iowa, a dirty trick is played on Obama, we know who did in 12 hours in that next cycle. But I cannot emphasize enough that there is, in New Hampshire, a strong libertarian impulse among Republicans. This is a state that's not big on seat belts, not big on helmets for motorcycle, mandatory enforced by law. And I would not write off Ron Paul, whose support is as dedicated and enthusiastic, maybe zealous, as anybody in the race. JIM LEHRER: OK, Mark, David, Gwen, all, thank you all very much, and we will be talking to you over the next hours and days. Thank you.
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After Iowa, Focus Shifts to New Hampshire |
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Shields, Brooks Take on Afghan Plan, 'Populist Uprising' Over Economy
