Polls Show Clinton and Obama in Dead Heat; McCain Leads GOP Pack

JUDY WOODRUFF: And we have a graphic to show what some of the polls are showing, and they do show this tightening.

ANDREW KOHUT: They show a tightening. There's a fair amount of consensus: Hillary Clinton has a lead over Obama, but it's not nearly as consistent as what we see on the Republican side. And we'll talk about that a little bit later.

And that speaks to how much better the polls have been on the Republican side than they've been on the Democratic side, because Democrats can't make up their mind.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Are there common characteristics of Clinton supporters and the Obama supporters?

ANDREW KOHUT: Absolutely. The Obama base is more liberal; it's African-American; it's more male; and its affluent Democrats, college graduates, Democrats earning more than $75,000 to $100,000.

For Hillary Clinton, she has a 49 percent to 33 percent lead among women, trails 42 percent to 45 percent among men. But she also has a more conservative constituency. She has older voters with her. She has less well-educated, less affluent Democrats, the non-elite Democrats, let's call them.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And what's driving these voters? Can you tell what the factors are that's driving their support? And to what extent is it issues?

ANDREW KOHUT: Well, as important as issues have been in motivating Democrats, they're not important in making choices between these candidates.

I looked at all of the exit polls for the primaries so far, and there's almost no correlation between the issues that the voters say are important to them and the candidates that they choose.

It's all about personal qualities, seeing Barack Obama as the agent of change to a greater extent than Hillary Clinton, or looking at her and saying she has more experience, she's more capable. It's not about the issues, not that the issues are unimportant, but they're not decisive.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Is that typical for a Democratic primary or...

ANDREW KOHUT: Well, generally there have been more ideological divides within the Democratic Party historically, but they're certainly not here. This is more personal.

ANDREW KOHUT: Well, in the Republicans, we see a surge going in the direction of John McCain. We have him up 20 points. And he's gone from single digits two weeks ago to double digits, the reverse of what we saw on the Democratic side.

And look how nice the numbers are. They're completely lined up. They show some real consistency on the part of the way Republicans were viewing when these polls were taken, which isn't to say that this is the way it's written, but just that there's more stability in Republican attitudes, the reverse of what I would have thought a month ago, than there is in Democratic attitudes.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And the characteristics of the McCain, and the Romney, and the Huckabee support...

(CROSSTALK)

ANDREW KOHUT: The McCain voters are primarily -- he gets his most support from moderates, although he's made gains in recent weeks among conservatives.

He's now at least breaking even or having a small margin over Romney among the conservatives and the regular Republicans. He certainly gets independents to a greater degree than any of these other candidates.

Romney appeals to regular Republicans, but he hasn't really sold the deal to Republicans. At most, he breaks even in most of these polls among regular Republicans against McCain. And then McCain's advantage among independents brings him across.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And Huckabee, and Ron Paul?

ANDREW KOHUT: Ron Paul has a small, loyal 5 percent, 7 percent constituency, but it never gets much larger than that, except maybe in a few states tomorrow.

But for Huckabee, it's white, Evangelical Protestants, but not as many white, Evangelical Protestants as we saw back in Iowa, which he won. And in fact, in our poll, the Christian conservatives are dividing their preferences between McCain and Huckabee.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And factors driving this, and how much are issues a factor for the Republicans?

ANDREW KOHUT: On the Republican side, issues are more important. The war in Iraq has been a good issue for McCain. Many of the Republicans who say -- or a plurality of the Republicans who say that the war is the big issue for them, they're voting for McCain, including many people, many Republicans who are critical of the war, even though McCain has been prominently associated with support for the surge.

Romney, the issue has been immigration, but immigration is a spotty issue. It's only been a big issue in Iowa and to a certain extent in Florida. And in Florida, it didn't all go Romney's way.

Immigration is a hard one for the Republicans. It wasn't good for them in 2006. It's not consistently good for Romney in the polls that I've looked at.

ANDREW KOHUT: Eighty percent of the Democrats continue to rate their field excellent or good. There's no decline in that percentage given the sometimes acrimonious debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, no disillusionment there.

And there's an enthusiasm gap. It's been pretty consistent. Only 60 percent of the Republicans rate their field as excellent or good, and that's been the case over the past year.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And very quickly and finally, some comment that the polls haven't been right this year when it comes to the Democrats, New Hampshire, South Carolina. Explanation?

ANDREW KOHUT: I would put it -- I would blame the voters. I mean, the voters are unsettled, and the pollsters are having a heck of a time figuring out how the Democrats feel about these two exceptional, as in never before, candidates.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Those elusive voters. Andy Kohut of the Pew Research Center, thanks very much.

ANDREW KOHUT: You're welcome.