Riding Wave of Momentum, Obama Chips Away at Clinton's Base

JUDY WOODRUFF: Again, that is eight consecutive primary and caucus wins, a streak that began last weekend. For what's fueling the Obama surge and where the Democratic race stands, we're joined by longtime Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin and veteran Democratic consultant Tad Devine. He served as senior strategist for the presidential campaigns of Al Gore and John Kerry.

Neither has endorsed a candidate in the current primary race.

Gentlemen, good to see you both. Thanks for being here.

Tad, to you first. How much of a turning point was yesterday for the Democrats?

TAD DEVINE, Democratic consultant: Well, I think it's the beginning of a turning point. I mean, if Senator Obama can continue to build the momentum, which I think is characterizing this stage of the process, what happens in these earlier states, like last night and also Wisconsin next week, I think can actually affect the voting that's going to occur in places like Ohio and Texas later on.

So we'll wait to see whether he can continue to build this momentum, but we're at a sequential state process now. It's very different than the mega-national primary or even the early events.

And I think if you can continue to win, you become defined as a winner. Your coverage is characterized as a winner. Your opponent's coverage is characterized as someone who's lost. That colors voting attitudes later on.

We'll see if it continues. If it does, I expect he's going to continue to build a wave.

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Geoff, did we see something different? What did we see in these results yesterday that may have changed things?

GEOFFREY GARIN, Democratic pollster: Well, the victories were expected. It was really the magnitude of them that was surprising and that Senator Obama started to do better with groups that had been rock solid for Hillary Clinton before.

Hillary Clinton continued to win with white women, but by a more narrow margin. But Barack Obama did very well with white men. They were broad victories.

And I think the challenge now for the Clinton campaign is to come out of what has been a pretty rough patch and maintain some sense of energy and enthusiasm on her side as we head into, first, Wisconsin.

Before we get to Texas and Ohio, we have another election in Wisconsin. I think it will be very hard for...

JUDY WOODRUFF: Next Tuesday.

GEOFFREY GARIN: Next Tuesday. And if Senator Obama wins by the same kind of margin, that will have a consequence.

I think that this is a very different moment than occurred after Iowa. Then, people in the Democratic Party were not ready for it to be over. Now, this far into the process, I think the mood and the mindset is different, where Democrats are ready to coalesce around somebody who seems like they've emerged.

And Hillary Clinton has got to forestall that until she can get to Ohio, but she's got to get to Ohio with real energy and enthusiasm.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Do you agree people are now more ready to coalesce around one candidate or another? If so, where do you see that? Where's the evidence?

TAD DEVINE: I am. I think that that's an important insight that Geoff just shared. You know, it happened so quickly in Iowa and New Hampshire. We came out of the new year, went into Iowa right after the new year, and suddenly, five days later, not nine days later or two weeks later -- you know, in 1976, there were 56 days between Iowa and New Hampshire.

You know, so this nominating process is so close and so congested, I think people in New Hampshire, voters there who take this very seriously, basically said, "Wait a second. Who is this guy? Where did he come from? You know, I like him. I feel good about him, but are we really ready to turn the nomination over?"

And I think they understood how much power they had. And I think a lot of them reluctantly stepped back and said, "This needs to breathe a little bit more."

But I think now, after going through this longer contest, after having a good look at both of these candidates, the Democrats in these states are ready to move. And if Senator Obama continues to build his momentum, it's going to be tough to stop it.

GEOFFREY GARIN: Well, look, I think what she's saying really has to come from deep down within her.

Look, this election is about something. Americans -- and particularly Democrats -- feel that the country is in a world of hurt, and they're really worried about the future. They're looking for somebody with the leadership qualities to turn America around.

And Hillary Clinton needs to tell people why it's her and more than Barack Obama. And she needs to be able to say that the same way, every day, consistently, with real passion.

Barack Obama has laid out his narrative, and it's a narrative that makes sense to people. Hillary Clinton's narrative has changed from time to time, from experience to other things.

Right now is the moment when she has to say, "Here's why, deep down inside, I believe I'm the right person to lead America and turn our country around."

JUDY WOODRUFF: But to play devil's advocate, Tad Devine, Hillary Clinton is still winning, for the most part, white women voters, and she's still winning Latino voters. Now, those are big -- and we talk about downscale, lower-income, less-educated white voters -- they are going to make up a big part of the electorate in Ohio, Latinos in Texas.

TAD DEVINE: And that will bode well for her, considering where she's going. I think the big problem is that assumes the process is a little more static than I think it is. I think it's a very dynamic process.

Just because you did well with those groups in places like California, New York, New Jersey doesn't mean necessarily you'll succeed with them in Ohio, if this huge tidal wave of momentum is sweeping across the Democratic Party. So I think that's the great threat right now.

And I agree with Geoff. She's got to define herself, and I think she needs a big contest on big ideas. There are big ideas and big issues on the table, the economy, who's best to get us out of Iraq, health care and other domestic concerns. If she can have a contest of ideas with Senator Obama, that's a better contest for her.

JUDY WOODRUFF: What do you mean by that? I mean, what's an example of a big idea?

TAD DEVINE: Sure. Well, I think it begins with, for example, going to a place like the University of Texas or Ohio State and having a big speech, a long speech, where you discuss in some detail your differences on the economy, how you're best to get us out of Iraq, not just some aspects of your health care plan, but details of it.

And I think that speech then becomes the debate. And I think the debate becomes a slogan and a sound bite.

And, ultimately, if you can capture that and explain those differences -- and they're not personal differences. There's nothing mean or nasty here. They are substantive differences in policy. And if she can lay those out clearly, I think she's got a chance to push him back.

GEOFFREY GARIN: I disagree with that. Barack Obama has evolved and improved as a candidate and has become really an exceptional force as a political speaker and as a political leader, but what's important about this year is not just Barack Obama's skills. It's about what the voters are trying to say.

And that was knowable a year ago. They were trying to say the same thing a year ago. It wasn't that they were looking for experience. They were looking for leadership to change America.

And Hillary Clinton could have known then -- and needs to do it now -- is speak to that great urge and desire of Democrats all across America, which is to have a leader who will change America and to lay her claim to that. It is what the race is about; it is the only thing that the race is about.

JUDY WOODRUFF: What about Barack Obama, Tad Devine? What does he need to do?

TAD DEVINE: Well, he's got to keep doing what he's doing right now. I mean, he's got to keep powerfully speaking to voters about his agenda for change.

I think Obama is the change candidate in the change election. And I agree with Geoff that that's why he's winning.

But I think he also has to broaden himself out. He has to prove to people that not only does he have this capacity to lead, the charisma that people are relating to and filling up huge coliseums, but he also has the substance and policies to take the nation in a different direction.

And so I think he's going to have to do that. He's going to have to talk about his economic plans. He's going to have to talk in more specifics about defending the nation and getting us out of Iraq.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And, in fact, Geoff Garin, I noticed the Clinton campaign today looked at what Barack Obama said in a speech in Wisconsin on the economy. They said, "Well, he's just copying Hillary Clinton's ideas, things she talked about last summer."

GEOFFREY GARIN: I think that that's too small a point for them to be making, frankly. It is perfectly fine to talk about what makes them different, but it's got to be in a way that explains to people why she's going to be better able to fix what's wrong with America.

She's got to elevate that argument. That "he's cribbing from my ideas," I don't think takes her far enough.

JUDY WOODRUFF: So is she smart? Is her campaign smart to put so much emphasis now on Ohio, Texas and then Pennsylvania?

TAD DEVINE: Well, necessity is the mother of invention. So smart, not smart, she has to be there. But now, having done that, she'd better win in those three places.

GEOFFREY GARIN: That's right. You know, she's got no place else to go. And if she doesn't win there, I think the ranks of the super-delegates and other party leaders will begin to close around Obama, and he will distance himself.

And with a system of proportional representation, if you fall behind, there's no way for a second-place candidate to catch up.