Visit Your Local PBS Station PBS Home PBS Home Programs A-Z TV Schedules Watch Video Donate Shop PBS Search PBS

Program
Support
From:
ABOUT US  |  LOCAL TV LISTINGS    EMAIL   PRINT      
PBS NewsHour
TopicsVideoRecent ProgramsTeacher ResourcesThe Rundown: news blogSubscribe rss | podcast


REGION: North America
TOPIC: Politics
Online NewsHour
TRANSCRIPT
Originally Aired: January 3, 2008
Analysis Part 2 of 2

Journalists Examine Iowa Caucus Outcomes

As part of the NewsHour's special coverage of the Iowa caucuses, journalists from the Rothenberg Political Report and the National Journal take a look at caucus return and how the Iowa race may impact the rest of the primary season.
Sen. Barack Obama
 
audioRealAudioDownload  
PART 1Huckabee, Obama Victorious in Iowa
PART 2Journalists Examine Caucus Outcomes

JIM LEHRER: ... OK.

Speaking of the numbers here, Margaret Warner has a look at what was behind some of tonight's numbers in Iowa.

Margaret?

MARGARET WARNER: Thanks, Jim.

And for that, I'm joined by Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, and Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the National Journal's political daily, The Hotline.

So let's drill down into these Democratic numbers, first of all. Obama, where was he strongest? How broad was his appeal, Amy?

AMY WALTER, The National Journal: I guess the answer is everywhere. I mean, the appeal was amazing. You look at everything from on the issues, where he beat Hillary Clinton on everything from -- we assumed that he would win on the issue of the war.

But on the economy, voters who said that was their top issue, he beat her by 10 points. He even beat her among what's supposed to be her marquee issue, health care.

So not only was he able to win because of the incredible turnout we've talked about, new voters, the fact here that we know that so much of the vote now coming from people who said this is their very first time voting, he won that group overwhelmingly.

But it was more than just turnout. He actually also won the issues argument.

MARGARET WARNER: And, of course, when you asked these voters what was most important to them, it was very much what Obama had stressed.

STUART ROTHENBERG, Rothenberg Political Report: Well, the top candidate quality -- 52 percent of the Democratic caucus attendees said "can bring change," he won 51 percent of those, Edwards at 20 percent, Clinton at 19 percent.

Never attended a caucus, about 57 percent of Democrats, he won 41 percent. He won women. He won urban voters. He won very liberal and somewhat liberal voters. He won the two young demographic groups, younger voters. It was a stunning victory across the board.

MARGARET WARNER: And Hillary Clinton, where did she show strength? And where did her whole strategy fall short from what we can see about the vote?

AMY WALTER: Well, I think it summed up pretty quickly in what Stu pointed out, when 52 percent of Democrats say they wanted a candidate who could bring about change, 19 percent said they wanted somebody who cares about people. Only 8 percent said electability was their number-one issue.

She did very well. Actually, that's not where she did as well. She did as well on experience. She trounced him on experience, but only 20 percent of voters said that that was a very important concern for them.

So she did well where she needed to, but it just wasn't the top issue.

STUART ROTHENBERG: Let me give her just one little hope here, a strap to hang on here. Among Democrats only, it was Obama 32 percent, Clinton 31 percent. So among core Democrats, she held him about even. There are going to be places where only core Democrats are going to vote.

Amy Walter
Amy Walter
The Hotline
Not only just people who say that they define themselves as evangelical, but people who say that religious beliefs of a candidate matter a great deal, 36 percent of Republican voters said they mattered a great deal.

Evangelicals come out for Huckabee


MARGARET WARNER: Let's switch to Republicans before we run out of time here. All right, Amy, again, let's take Huckabee. How broad was his appeal? I mean, much as been noted -- and Mark and David did, too -- about how strong a group evangelical voters were to start with in this election.

AMY WALTER: And they were. And, look, not only just people who say that they define themselves as evangelical, but people who say that religious beliefs of a candidate matter a great deal, 36 percent of Republican voters said they mattered a great deal. Huckabee, of course, dominating on that issue, won 56 percent of those voters. So that obviously was a big issue.

But let's look at this. Illegal immigration, number-one voter concern among Republican voters, that is, Huckabee beats Romney on that issue, the issue that Romney beat him over the head about in advertising, and he still won that, even winning on the issue of terrorism.

Again, he had been criticized for his comments early on about the response to Pakistan, et cetera. He even won on that.

MARGARET WARNER: So do you see a strap to hang on for Romney here, in terms of going forward?

STUART ROTHENBERG: Well, Romney won among higher income Republicans, the electability argument. Boy, it is hard to see.

I think the problem for Huckabee -- and I disagree a little bit with what Mark and David said -- is that this electorate is so skewed in terms of religious voters that, in other states, it's not going to be that way. Huckabee won populist lower incomes, as well as evangelical voters.

But you get a different electoral map, and I think Romney did OK among most groups, but it was just too much of a religious and an evangelical electorate for him.

MARGARET WARNER: All right, Stu and Amy, thank you.

CONTINUE

Vote 2008
  Main: Vote 2008
  Main: 2008 Primaries
REPORTS
  Primary Election Map
  Big Picture Cities
  Reporters' Blog
CANDIDATES
  Democrats
  Republicans
RESOURCES
  Election Feeds
    Vote 2008 RSS
    Vote 2008 Podcast
  Lesson Plans
  Archive
Journalists Examine Iowa Caucus Outcomes



CURRENT NEWSHOUR HEADLINES







The PBS NewsHour is Funded in part by: The John S. and James L. Knight Foundation Additional Foundation and Corporate Sponsors
Program
Support
From:
Copyright © 1996- MacNeil/Lehrer Productions. All Rights Reserved.