Michigan Serves as Battleground for Tight GOP Primary

On the Republican side, Stu, the conventional wisdom and the polls say it's too close to call. What's the data to support that?

STUART ROTHENBERG, Rothenberg Political Report: Well, Jim, there have been a number of surveys that show McCain and Romney running about even, Huckabee significantly behind, not much breathing room between the top two candidates.

But I think many of us who watch these polls are a little nervous about making predictions, particularly because there's this wild card, no Democratic contest. Independents and Democrats could make up a very substantial portion of the electorate. And that could change the mix.

JIM LEHRER: You share Stu's nervousness, Amy, on calling this?

AMY WALTER, The National Journal: Of course. We've all been chastened, yes. But I think, even had New Hampshire not happened, we would say this is still too close to call.

And Stu's right. And I think the bigger point for John McCain is what the makeup of the electorate looks like on the Republican side.

Now, he won in Michigan in 2000, where Republicans made up less than half the vote. Democrats and independents turned out big numbers that time. It should be bigger this time, because of what Stu just pointed out.

But for John McCain, if he is to win here and to I think succeed going forward, he needs to prove he can win by winning Republicans, not just by winning in states where they have independents and Democrats.

Florida, there are 11 other states on February 5th that have closed primaries. So if he's going to win the nomination, he needs to get that core Republican base.

STUART ROTHENBERG: Well, momentum, pure and simple, for him. And Amy is absolutely right. He needs to show, I think, to those of us who get into the weeds -- and not a lot of people do, I understand that -- but those of us who do get into the weeds, he has to show this is not simply 2000 Part Deux. This, you know, isn't the same thing where he can win in New Hampshire and he can win Michigan and, once he gets into the other states, Republicans won't vote for him.

So we're going to be looking at the cross-tabs. How will Republicans vote?

JIM LEHRER: Because, after all, he is running for the Republican nomination.

AMY WALTER: There is that thing, yes.

STUART ROTHENBERG: That's right, yes. And that is the problem. He kind of cherry-picked states eight years ago where he did well. But when he got to the broad Republican electorate, he didn't do so well.

So he really has to show. And he has to show some momentum. Look, this is not a desperate do-or-die for him. But he could take a real step to the nomination by doing well here among all voters, including Republicans.

AMY WALTER: It's certainly more do-or-die for Mitt Romney. As the piece pointed out, you know, this is his home state. This is somebody who needs a win.

I mean, the amount of money that Mitt Romney has spent to come up short, it would be in three straight primaries, not very good, in places where he should have done better.

I mean, if we started this race in South Carolina and he lost, we could make the argument as to why he didn't do as well there.

But when it's New Hampshire, when it's Michigan, and then we go next to a place that is not traditionally very friendly to a northeastern candidate, South Carolina, a place where McCain and Huckabee are probably going to be fighting it out for one-two, then he's got to keep looking forward for the win. And that's going to be a lot tougher.

JIM LEHRER: Is Romney's pitch to the voters in Michigan basically, "I'm from Michigan, so I care more about Michigan, hey, follow me"?

STUART ROTHENBERG: That's part of it. It's, "I'm from Michigan. I understand Michigan. I can identify with you. I know business. Business is a problem here."

It's very different than McCain. I mean, they're all talking about the economy. It's the economy.

And the big difference it seems to me is, for McCain, it's, "I'm going to tell you straight about the economy. I'm going to tell you these jobs are not coming back." The clip we saw had to do with retraining, community colleges.

For Mitt, it's a lot more upbeat: "I know business. I can get us back." For McCain, there's some tough medicine here. And we'll see if the voters like that.

JIM LEHRER: Is any survey information on how those two pitches are working thus far? One won't know until this is over, right?

AMY WALTER: Right, and I think we'll have a good sense from what voters did want to hear. But I think that's part of Romney's problem, too, right, is the sense that, wherever he goes, he'll tell you what you want to hear.

And McCain's pitch -- and this is how put himself forward in 2000, and keeps riding on this now -- is, "Look, you guys, you know what you should -- you know, you know what you want to hear. I'm telling you what you should hear."

And for a guy who just came off of New Hampshire with that same message, "I told you I was right about the surge, it's true, it came true," is what his pitch there, it might not be as dangerous in Michigan as it might seem on its face.

STUART ROTHENBERG: Let's remember that, on the face of it, this should be -- the message should be more easily delivered by Romney and/or Huckabee, even, in terms of economic populism than McCain. McCain, remember, is a foreign policy guy. He's the national security guy.

JIM LEHRER: He's the surge guy.

STUART ROTHENBERG: He's the surge guy. So if he does well here on this with the economy at the forefront, that's really good news for him.