Reshaped Democratic Field Hits the Ground Running in Tight Race

The question becomes whether it's possible to do that in a state like New Hampshire, which is so different from Iowa.

DAVID BROOKS: It is different.

I happen to think it's more hospitable. Dan Balz of The Washington Post had a good piece on this subject. I mean, the people for whom -- who Obama does the best with are highly educated voters -- there are a lot of highly educated voters in New Hampshire -- independent voters -- a lot of independent voters; Prius-driver-type voters -- a lot of those kind of voters in New Hampshire.

I think, in some ways -- everyone says this was hostile ground to Hillary Clinton. I think, in some ways, New Hampshire is more fertile ground for Barack Obama. There are a lot of his kind of highly educated Starbucks voters there.

And I suspect it -- they're going to be ready for that kind of message. And Mark put his finger on the word that I think is the key word, which is emotion. You know, we've all covered primary nights and caucus nights. And somebody always wins. There's always a winner. And I don't care if it's John Kerry or George Bush or Bill Clinton. You look at that winner and say, oh, that's kind of exciting. He's an interesting guy. He has a new philosophy, a new belief.

But Barack Obama is different. It's different because of the race issue. Every single American has an emotional investment in this issue, has feelings about this issue, feels good about this issue. I spoke to a lot of conservatives who don't agree with Obama, they don't like Obama, but they are feel-good about this moment.

And that emotional element to the victory in Iowa is just different from all the other elements, all -- not all the other victories, but a lot of the other victories we've had in this country. And that's why the normal political formulas, and I think the independence of -- the supposed independence of -- New Hampshire is actually probably not going to apply this time.

GWEN IFILL: Mark, let me ask you about that.

There was a moment today in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, where Barack Obama asked this crowd, as he flew all night, came to New Hampshire -- and he said, how many of you are independents? And half of the crowd raised their hands. And he says, OK, fresh meat.

So, does Barack Obama go after that fresh meat, or are these just New Hampshire folks saying, stroke me, because I know that, if I tell you I've made up my mind, you'll stop knocking on my door?

MARK SHIELDS: Well, both may be right. But he's got a representative sample there in Portsmouth. Forty-five percent of the registered voters in New Hampshire are what they call undeclared, what the rest of us would call independent around the country.

In 2000, 62 percent of the independents who voted -- they can vote in either party's primary -- voted in the Republican primary. They provided the margin by which John McCain thumped George Bush in this state by 19 percentage points.

Now the best estimate by most people I talk to is that up to two-thirds of them are going to vote -- of the independents who do vote undeclared...

DAVID BROOKS: Yes.

MARK SHIELDS: ... will vote in the Democratic primary, where Obama is leading Hillary Clinton in most surveys by better than 3-2.

She came to New Hampshire today and she said, it's a new day. It's a new state. She tried to claim the mantle of change for herself. Can she pull it off?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, it'll be an uphill fight.

I think, a couple things she can point to. The first is that she actually knows how to use the levers of power. Barack Obama, for all his inspiring rhetoric, it's not sure he knows how to be a statesman. And that's reconciling means to ends, to actually use the levers of power.

And then the second issue is toughness. And she says: I've taken on the Republicans. They are tough. I withstand their challenges. I don't know about Barack Obama.

Here in Iowa -- you're in New Hampshire -- I don't know if you've heard her making any other arguments against him. It's, obviously, a tough thing to hoe for her.

GWEN IFILL: And, Mark, there's another interesting thing which both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards on the Democratic side are doing, which is they came out today and they said, you know what, let's talk about what happens after New Hampshire.

They started talking about Nevada. They started talking about South Carolina. They brought their surrogates out to say, you know: We're really running strong national campaigns.

Is that just changing the subject?

MARK SHIELDS: Well, it is changing the subject.

I thought Obama made a slip today when he talked to that crowd that we heard in the excerpt about beyond New Hampshire. I mean, New Hampshire voters are used to -- to candidates paying attention to them. And they don't want to just be one more domino in this inevitable nomination process.

They -- Judd Gregg, the former governor, current United States senator, Republican, says, in Iowa, they pick corn. In New Hampshire, we pick presidents.

And they're not particularly interested in what people are going to do in South Carolina or beyond or elsewhere, in Nevada. They are interested in what they do. And I think that's -- that's where I would focus the emphasis.

I think Hillary Clinton has a serious problem here, Gwen, in the sense that she has to change her -- inevitability didn't work. Electability didn't work. And experience didn't prove to be a very decisive value or virtue in voters' decisions. And only 20 percent of the Iowa caucus-goers said that it mattered.

So, she has got to sort of change herself. I think she has got to make herself more open, more vulnerable than she has been. And she's only got four days to do it, and it's going to be tough.

GWEN IFILL: Gentlemen, it's been an unexpected delight to chat with you.

And now back to Jim in the studio.

We've had a -- just for the audience to understand what happened here, we lost all ability to talk out of Washington. Some people would applaud that, as a matter of principle.

But that's what was -- been going on. But I've been listening, along with everybody else, to Gwen and David and Mark and the talk -- talking.

But let me ask Gwen some, while you're -- Gwen, you can still hear me. I'm hearing an echo.

Are you hearing an echo? Are you OK, Gwen?

GWEN IFILL: No, I hear you fine.

JIM LEHRER: OK.

Gwen, let me -- following up on some of the things that you have been asking David and Mark about, but from a reportorial standpoint, when you go to these various campaigns that you've touched base with today, the -- you've already talked about the Obama people.

The Obama people feel they've got a huge chance here to win New Hampshire, correct?

GWEN IFILL: Absolutely.

And they think, in an odd way, that they can do it the way that they did Iowa. That's odd because usually it's considered to be a completely different kind of strategy. What's different this time is that they didn't win Iowa the way everybody told them they ought to. So, they think, if they come to New Hampshire and stick with what was working for them before -- they're going to house parties.

They're talking to individual, small groups of voters. They think that's going to work. You know, it's really very interesting, because today felt very much like everyone was taking a deep breath after Iowa. I don't think there's a campaign winner or loser on the Democratic side that wasn't a little bit taken aback, surprised in a good way or bad way by what happened.

So, they are all suddenly recalibrating, coming up with new ads appealing to this breed of independent new voter in New Hampshire, which could possibly be as potent here as it was in Iowa.

JIM LEHRER: Does your reporting, Gwen, reflect any inclination by the Clinton folks to go negative on Obama?

GWEN IFILL: Not yet.

But we got a little hint of that this afternoon on a conference call with Terry McAuliffe and some other Clinton people, who suggested there will be new advertising going up. But they didn't tell us what the ads would be.

So, we're not sure whether those ads are going to be going negative on Barack Obama. There has been discussion they want to raise new questions about Barack Obama's record on things like gun control. It should be noted they have raised those questions before in past primaries, and none of it seemed to stick.

I think, right now, they're trying to find out what sticks.

JIM LEHRER: And, finally, Gwen, what is the word from the John Edwards campaign? What -- what is their message that they're trying to get out today?

GWEN IFILL: They're still fighting, Jim.

It's funny to hear all the candidates today try to claim that mantle of change. In his case, he's saying: What kind of change do you want? I can give you the kind of change, where I'm going to go out there and fight for change. Barack Obama can give you the kind of change where he is going to hope for a change, and Hillary Clinton is no longer in this race.

He recast this today as a two-person race between himself and Barack Obama. I don't know if that's hopeful thinking, but in coming in second in Iowa, he has the ability to do that. And that's what he is planning to do. He's looking forward, just like she is, beyond New Hampshire.