Congress Returns with Spending as Top Priority

AMY WALTER: Right. This is -- for Democrats, it's really just holding on. It's literally, you know, the feeling of having a tailwind, and what you want to do is just ride it for as long as you can, and try not to give Republicans any opportunities to knock you off course.

If you're the Republicans -- and this is a big difference from 1994, the last time we saw one of these wave or mood elections.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Right.

AMY WALTER: Look, there were a lot of Democrats who never thought that was going to happen. There were many that were caught off guard -- the candidates, campaign committees, bigger, stronger, faster better funded than they were in '94.

STUART ROTHENBERG: Well, I just want to say, I think the difference between this election and other elections is that, in most other elections, the out-party, the challengers, have to try to make the case to fire the incumbent.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Mmm-hmm. Right.

STUART ROTHENBERG: So, they're looking for an issue here or health care, prescription drugs, immigration, whatever it is. Fire the incumbent. He's or she has made mistakes. That's not the way it is now.

STUART ROTHENBERG: Now it is, the voters seem to want change, so it's up to incumbent Republicans to say, here's why either you shouldn't fire me, or, in most cases here's why you ought not hire this other person, because, if you get them, wow, this is what you're going to get. And you're not going to like it. And you're not going to like it, either because of their personal ethics, their previous political performance, or whatever.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Can President Bush make a difference? Can he go around'? He has been campaigning. We hear he's going to do more? Can he make a difference in these races, Amy?

AMY WALTER: You're not seeing a lot of Republicans that are working hard to attach themselves to the president, like they were in '04, certainly in '02.

Look, they want him to come in right now, because he's still the best fund-raiser in the country. He can bring in $200,000, $500,000 in one night. So, that certainly is going to be there.

But I think what we're already starting to see in some of these campaign ads are Republicans who are either very openly distancing themselves from the president, or, at least in a more subtle way, trying to break and show their independence from the president.

JUDY WOODRUFF: What's an example of that?

AMY WALTER: Clay Shaw down in Florida. Now, here's an incumbent who has been around for quite some time. He has survived in a pretty marginal district.

He's always -- he's not exactly one of the most conservative members of Congress. But, right now, he's coming out in his ads, and saying outright, I disagree with the president on Social Security, or, I don't like party labels. I'm just here for Florida.

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, just to be clear, both of you are saying right now it looks good for the Democrats...

AMY WALTER: Yes.

JUDY WOODRUFF: ... to take control of the House.

AMY WALTER: Yes.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Senate, pick up seats, but maybe not take control.

AMY WALTER: That's right.

STUART ROTHENBERG: And we would both agree, a lot could change between now and November.

AMY WALTER: That's right.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Sure.

STUART ROTHENBERG: But I think you're right.

AMY WALTER: Yes.

JUDY WOODRUFF: This is -- this is September the 5th.

AMY WALTER: Right.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Finally, there's a sense in American politics, at least for the last decade or so, that Republicans do better closing on Election Day, and those final hours up to Election Day. Why wouldn't that happen this year?

STUART ROTHENBERG: Well, it might. It's possible.

They may be doing -- they have run recently -- oh, I think we're only talking the last few cycles -- technically better campaigns, with more money. Remember, 20 years ago, Judy, we used to talk about organized labor turning out voters. And we used to say the Democrats had the advantage.

I think the Democrats have a terrific team at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. They have got -- they have raised a lot more money than they have in the past. The Republicans may win in the final two weeks.

But the wind at the back of the Democrats, the Democrats' financial footing, I...

AMY WALTER: And I think motivation is the other key, right? I mean, it is a lot easier to turn out voters when they're already motivated to vote, and when they already support your president.

But, if only 80 percent or 78 percent of Republicans are even supporting the president right now, it's not just a question of getting them out to vote. You have got to get them out -- convince them that they want to support a Republican. That's very different than we saw in 2004.

Amy Walter, Stu Rothenberg, we are going to come back to you in just a few minutes.

But, right now, Republicans still do have a firm hold on this Congress, and they are going to try to take political advantage of that with a targeted legislative agenda over the remaining weeks.

For more on that, we are joined by Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute. He's co-author of "The Broken Branch: How Congress Is Failing America and How to Get It Back on Track."

Norman Ornstein, thank you very much.

NORMAN ORNSTEIN, American Enterprise Institute: Hi, Judy.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Given this political scenario that Stu and Amy have laid out here, what do you expect to see happen over these next several weeks in Washington?

NORMAN ORNSTEIN: Well, Congress is back today. They're scheduled to leave on September 29.

They desperately want to go back and campaign. They have got 15 legislative days in which to work. And what they have decided to do is to make this security month.

Instead of focusing on the domestic agenda, which includes, of course, immigration as the big issue, along with an ambitious plan for offshore oil drilling, and a host of other issues, including 11 appropriations bills that are undone, they're going to focus on a series of things, some of which are clearly necessary on the agenda.

The Hamdan decision of the Supreme Court threw the issue of trials for terrorists back in Congress' court, dealing with wiretaps and FISA. They have to do defense appropriations to deal with the war and homeland security, as well.

But the fact is that they want to make this political point for just the reasons that Stu and Amy have suggested. They don't have much traction on other issues. They think they still have some on security and they can portray the Democrats as being weak in dealing with terrorists. So, this is as much a political agenda as it is a policy one.

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, the Republican leadership doesn't risk anything by, for example, setting immigration aside, which is something that we had heard earlier was a priority, for them to get a deal done this year on?

NORMAN ORNSTEIN: I think it's a big risk, actually, because I think one of the themes that we're going to have out there that plays with dissatisfaction in the electorate is the do-nothing Congress.

And, by focusing the way they are, there's a real chance that we will have very few accomplishments, actual policy items getting through. Immigration may not have quite the same resonance as the failure of health care did in 1994, when one party, then the Democrats, were in power. But it will underscore the notion that not much is happening.

And, frankly, as well, you know, we saw today a number of Democrats, including the leaders, sign a letter and hold a press conference, calling for the resignation of Secretary Rumsfeld. It's clear now that, as Republicans focus on the security agenda, very aggressively, talking about the Defeatocrats, Democrats are going to responsible in kind.

And that means an even more rancorous month in what has been an unusually rancorous Congress. And it's not clear that voters are going to react very well to bickering that doesn't result in accomplishment.

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Norm, what happens to some of these other things that we had earlier in the year were a priority for the Congress, lobbying reform, earmark reform, this whole appropriations process...

NORMAN ORNSTEIN: Yes.

JUDY WOODRUFF: ... that favors special interests?

NORMAN ORNSTEIN: Well, they have pretty much abandoned the larger issues of lobbying and ethics reform, and are going to do a targeted earmark reform, hoping they can get that through the House and Senate in identical form, which won't be easy to do.

They are not be able to get the appropriations done. They're hoping, certainly, to go get the big-ticket defense appropriations, and, by the way, with that, funding for a fence in Mexico, hoping that will stave off the worst case on immigration, and homeland security.

But we're going to end up with a fiscal year, beginning October 1, almost certainly with another large continuing resolution. They are trying to get the bare minimum done, basically, with a few accomplishments that they can point to, so that they can get out of town as quickly as they can.

My guess is, they won't be able to leave until at least the first week in October. But they're probably not going to have a whole lot of trophies to put on the wall.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Very quickly, Norm, any chances of a lame-duck session?

NORMAN ORNSTEIN: I think the chances are extraordinarily high of a lame-duck session.

But keep in mind, Judy, that, if the Democrats win either house of Congress, their incentives to do much cooperating with the Republicans in a lame-duck, where the Republicans are still in charge, when they're going to take over in January, will be close to zero.

Norm Ornstein, thanks very much.

I want to bring Amy Walter and Stu Rothenberg back into the conversation.

Amy, if this is the way it plays out, as we just heard from Norm, what does that portend for the November elections?

AMY WALTER: Well, look, I think Norm set it up quite well.

There's not a whole lot that Republicans, I think, are going to be able to do to change the minds of voters right now. I mean, I think that voters are almost as calcified as they can be at this point, in terms of their views of Congress, of the president, of the direction of the country.

I mean, they have been pretty set for some time now. And the only question, then, is can Republicans change the terms of the debate in these individual districts? Can they do, as Stu said, focus on this candidate here, this candidate there, try to knock them off their game a little bit, and hold on literally district by district, rather than -- I think nationalizing the campaign is not the way that Republicans are going to  go.

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Stu, this entire thrust of the Republicans to talk about security, to say, if you have Democrats in charge, the country is not as safe as it is with Republicans in charge...

STUART ROTHENBERG: I think it's a good...

JUDY WOODRUFF: ... going to work, not going to work?

STUART ROTHENBERG: Well, I think it's a good strategy, because you can only play the cards that you have. And that's the one card that they still have left. It's the one card where the president has some advantage.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And it worked for them...

STUART ROTHENBERG: And it has worked in the past.

JUDY WOODRUFF: ... in the past.

STUART ROTHENBERG: Right.

And it unifies Republicans. And it might appeal to swing voters. The only thing that I that I disagree with Norm on -- and I never disagree with Norm -- I know better -- is that, if the Republicans brought up immigration, it would only point out the divisions within the party. They still couldn't get anything done.

The Republicans want to keep this election on one national issue, terror, and, as Amy has suggested, all about the individual candidates, why candidate X shouldn't be sent to Washington, D.C., why Lois Murphy in Pennsylvania, or Diane Farrell, or Patricia Madrid, why that person is unacceptable.

So, the fact that nothing is getting done, while there is a risk for do-nothing Congress -- I certainly agree with that -- the Republicans really want to keep the focus of this campaign elsewhere, terrorism, and then the individual qualities of the challengers.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Any particular Senate race, very quickly, either one of you suggest to our viewers they should keep an -- all of them, of course.

AMY WALTER: Well, of course, of course.

Look, there are -- we pointed out earlier in the broadcast that there are six that Democrats need to pick up.

So, states like Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, those are real battleground states for the Democrats. I think that, if you see movement, wouldn't you say, in Missouri, Ohio, those are really the two sort of keys.

STUART ROTHENBERG: I think they say "Missourah".

JUDY WOODRUFF: Yes.

STUART ROTHENBERG: And that is the one I would say, too. That will tell us how big the wave is.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Jim Talent.

AMY WALTER: Yes.

STUART ROTHENBERG: That will tell us how big the wave is.

JUDY WOODRUFF: OK. Stu Rothenberg, Amy Walter, thank you both.