New Polls, Primary Dates Turn Up Heat in '08 Race

JUDY WOODRUFF: Let's look at the Washington Post-ABC poll we just cited. In Iowa, the news is Mike Huckabee moving up, Mitt Romney still ahead. But what's the significance of this, Dan, considering we're six weeks out from the Iowa voting?

DAN BALZ: Well, it is a remarkable development. As you know, this has been a very fluid, unsettled Republican race all year long. And I think this is just the latest evidence of that.

What Mike Huckabee has been able to do over the last couple of months is basically go from near the back of the pack to near the front of the pack. I mean, he's tripled his support in Iowa in the three months or four months since we last polled at the end of July.

I think that tells you that Iowa is very competitive, that Mitt Romney, who has been the frontrunner there, now has serious competition to be the winner out there, which he is counting on in order to give him momentum into New Hampshire. So what Huckabee is doing now is throwing yet one more twist into a very interesting Republican race.

JUDY WOODRUFF: But since not all the Republican frontrunners are fully competing in Iowa, you have, I guess, John McCain not really contesting it at all, for intents and purposes, and Giuliani not really making an all-out campaign. So is Iowa going to be a true test for the Republicans?

DAN BALZ: Well, it will be an important test for Romney, because his whole strategy is predicated on winning Iowa and then winning New Hampshire, and he hopes he wins in Michigan, which comes a week after New Hampshire. Any bump in the road for him will cause a serious problem for his strategy.

I think what the Giuliani campaign would love to see is Mike Huckabee overtake Romney in Iowa and then give Rudy Giuliani a chance to win in New Hampshire. He's been downplaying expectations in the early states, but he's actually competing harder both in Iowa and particularly in New Hampshire than he's let on. I think his goal is to now win New Hampshire and stop Romney early and not let Romney get any momentum.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Dan, let me ask you about the Democrats now. Your poll has Barack Obama moving ahead of Hillary Clinton. She's in second place, Edwards in third. Now, they're all in a statistical dead heat, but what does this mean for the three of them?

DAN BALZ: Well, I think it's two things, Judy. I think the first is that this remains the most competitive contest on the Democratic side. All of the campaigns in Iowa have assumed that this race would go down to the wire, and I think they still believe that's the case.

I think, for Senator Clinton, what this poll says is that there are some problems that she's got to deal with, the most important being that a greater share of the electorate there now says that they are looking for a fresh candidate, a candidate who represents new ideas and a new direction, and that tends to be Obama over Senator Clinton.

So I think what we're going to see in Iowa, particularly between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama, is an increasingly tough campaign. And we've begun to see it in the last few days. I think we're going to see that become even more intense in the coming weeks.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And what about for John Edwards?

DAN BALZ: John Edwards has staked literally his entire campaign on winning in Iowa. I don't think you can rule out John Edwards at this point for two reasons.

One is it's clear that he has a core of supporters who remain very loyal from 2004, and the second is a much greater percentage of his supporters have been to caucuses before. They're not intimidated by what can be a somewhat daunting process, which is quite different than a primary.

So he may have an easier time getting his supporters out to the polls than either Clinton or Obama, so he's still a factor.

DAN BALZ: In the Democratic caucus, that is definitely the case. And what we saw in the poll is that Senator Clinton tends not to be the second choice of most of the other candidates' supporters, so I think both Obama and Edwards think, if the other begins to fade a little, they can take some of those votes to them, if they don't qualify for precinct delegates in some of these caucuses.

JUDY WOODRUFF: You mentioned a moment ago the more pointed attacks we're seeing on the Democratic side, especially between Obama and Clinton. She's saying he's not really that experienced, especially in foreign policy. He's taking some shots at her. How does all of this play with the voters?

DAN BALZ: Well, it's tricky in Iowa, Judy. The Iowa voters have had a tendency in past campaigns not to reward those people who go on the attack the most. And I think that, for all of the candidates at this point, I think their goal is to look like they are responding to somebody else rather than initiating the attacks.

It's a very fine line they have to walk. They all know the problem, but this has become so competitive, particularly between Obama and Clinton -- I think there's one point that's important: Neither wants to finish behind the other in Iowa. I think both of them feel that, if Edwards win, they could ultimately defeat Edwards, maybe or maybe not, but I think they feel that a loss to the other would be the most damaging outcome in Iowa.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, we've got six weeks to figure it all out. Dan Balz, Washington Post, thank you very much. Good to see you again.

DAN BALZ: Thank you, Judy.