ANSWERS UNCERTAIN

November 15, 1999
		After examining both flight recorders from crashed EgyptAir Flight 990, the National Transportation Safety Board is still looking for answers. Two aviation experts discuss how the investigation should proceed, following a background report.

Nov. 10, 1999: The flight data recorder details the last moments of Egypt Air Flight 990. Nov. 2, 1999: The dangers of search and recovery in the EgyptAir crash Nov. 1, 1999: EgyptAir 990 crashes into the Atlantic   EgyptAir National Transportation Safety Board Aviation Safety Network Federal Aviation Administration	KWAME HOLMAN: The second and last of EgyptAir 990's so-called black boxes -- the cockpit voice recorder -- was delivered to National Transportation Safety Board headquarters in Washington yesterday. It was brought up from more than 250 feet of water on Saturday night. This afternoon, NTSB Chairman Jim Hall said, while no conclusions could be drawn yet, the reported 31 minutes of tape from the cockpit recorder will be matched with information from the flight data recorder recovered last week. JIM HALL: Because of the quality of the cockpit voice recorder and the extensive information on the flight data recorder, I am confident that many of the questions we have, you have, and the individuals who are following this investigation around the world have, will be answered. Our investigators are working right now on synchronizing the timing between the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder, trying to refine the correlation between the two recorders. KWAME HOLMAN: On October 31, the EgyptAir jet, with 217 on board, was at a cruising altitude of 33,000 feet when it took an extremely fast, steep dive to 16,700 feet. It then climbed -- again, at a very high speed -- to 24,000 feet, and then fell -- the Boeing 767 crashing into the Atlantic Ocean -- all within a span of a few minutes. Today Hall said his investigators are trying to determine whether the NTSB should continue to lead the probe, suggesting it may become a criminal inquiry. JIM HALL: We are concentrating our efforts on determining from the evidence, including the cockpit voice recorder, whether or not this investigation is to remain under the leadership of the National Transportation Safety Board. KWAME HOLMAN: Meanwhile, the Board continues its analysis of EgyptAir's flight recorder.
	The NTSB expands its investigation
	GWEN IFILL: For more, we are joined by Lee Dickinson, a former member of the National Transportation Safety Board and the director of Exponent, an engineering and investigative firm that specializes in transportation accidents, and Tim Forte, a certified commercial pilot and the director of aviation safety at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. Mr. Dickinson, James Hall is a very... he picks his words very carefully. And, yet he opened the door to the possibility, it sounded like, of a criminal act. Is there anything that you've seen in what's been...what has been discerned from the black boxes so far which would lead you to understand why he might do that? LEE DICKINSON: Well, I think if you listen to what Jim Hall, the chairman of the NTSB, said today, he was very careful in his choice of words. But one thing I think your viewers need to keep in mind is it's not uncommon for the NTSB in an investigation such as this to work in conjunction with the FBI, because what happens is you keep working in certain avenues and certain approaches until there's certain information that allows you to change directions. If they're getting to that point, that is a decision that the Safety Board will have to make. If that's the case, they will relinquish the investigation or the running of the investigation. GWEN IFILL: The FBI has been working with them so far. The question is whether they will turn it over. Wouldn't that make a big difference in the kind of investigation they'd be conducting? LEE DICKINSON: Well, keep in mind that the NTSB is charged by law to investigate all civil aviation accidents. Now, those are of a civil nature. If, indeed, there's a determination that there may be criminal action involved, then the NTSB would wind down its investigation from the standpoint of determining cause and it would be taken over by another agency.
	Looking for answers
	GWEN IFILL: Mr. Forte, you have flown 767's; you're very familiar with the plane. Can you give us any sense about -- based on what you've heard so far -- about what could have happened in this crash that wouldn't have been involved, in which human error would not have been a factor? TIM FORTE: Well, of course, I would caution you to not speculate, let the investigation take its course, but the 767 is a very reliable airplane. It's been in commercial operation for over 18 years. There's about 800 in use worldwide, and it has an excellent safety record. There's not rational explanations for the data that's been released so far that makes any sense. GWEN IFILL: Are you surprised so far that it's so inconclusive? TIM FORTE: No. I think clearly Jim Hall has hinted that there's a lot of information available on both the flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder that, as they correlate them and align it and align it along with the air traffic tapes and the military radar tapes, I'm sure it's going to probably paint a picture that will if not give you the probable cause certainly the road map to it. GWEN IFILL: It's the painting of that picture, Mr. Dickinson, exactly how does the NTSB recreate those last minutes in the cockpit? LEE DICKINSON: Well, as Tim just mentioned the Safety Board has in its hands now both the digital flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder. The information that you get off the flight data recorder provides information on the aircraft itself. What was the airplane doing, what was its speed, what was his altitude? What was its heading? Was it rolling? Was it pitching -- that type of information. That's more of the engineering side of the puzzle. The cockpit voice recorder will provide information, communications between the cockpit and air traffic control possibly or within... with the pilots themselves. That information is more of a human performance type information. Those two pieces of data and information will be correlated; in other words, there will be a time line set up so that you'll be able to see what was the crew saying and how was the plane responding. That information will be the foundation for possibly developing scenarios or computer animation's on what exactly the airplane was doing and probably what it should have been doing based on the inputs that we think were provided. GWEN IFILL: There are at least two unusual things which have surfaced so far in the preliminary readings of these two black boxes. One I'll ask you about, one I'll ask Mr. Forte about. The one I'll ask you about is the flaps on the back of the planes, the elevators, one was up, one was down. Usually they would be down or up for the ascent at the same time. LEE DICKINSON: That is correct. GWEN IFILL: Why would that have happened? LEE DICKINSON: Well, again, as we said earlier, it's too early really to say. One of the things we do know is there's something not correct there. So that is an area that the Safety Board will indeed be looking at because as you indicated elevators should be in the same direction, either up or down. GWEN IFILL: And, Mr. Forte, how unusual is it that both of the engines were shut off possibly manually at some point? TIM FORTE: I think it's highly unusual. When trying to search for some reasonable explanation to do that-- and again cautious with speculation-- one possible scenario would be both engines on fire. However if that was going on, I think there would be information on the flight data recorder that would tell us that. In addition, you would expect the flight crew to be making emergency calls and preparing for ditching.
	Reconstructing an accident
	GWEN IFILL: As you both point, it's very difficult to figure out what you don't know and they're still searching for more information. We're all looking for hard and immediate answers for what's turned out to be a very murky mystery. How difficult is it for the NTSB in investigations like this to get to the bottom of it? LEE DICKINSON: I believe that the NTSB will indeed determine a cause of this accident. Unfortunately most of the public would like to have the answers today. We all would like to have answers today but it is not something that occurs overnight. The investigation is only about two weeks old. Typically what happens in any major investigation that is conducted by the NTSB is it's at least 12 to 14 months before a final probable cause is determined. I'm not saying it's going to take that long in the case, but we have to make sure that the on-scene portion of the investigation is indeed complete, all the data are collected because that indeed is the foundation for doing the subsequent analysis which would then determine the probable cause. GWEN IFILL: The investigators are taking the flight data and voice recorders to Seattle trying to reconstruct a time line. What do they hope to find? LEE DICKINSON: Again, my understanding there's about 150 different pieces of information from the flight data recorder on the aircraft itself. The information from the cockpit voice recorder, it's my understanding is a little over 30 minutes of that. They will try to put together exactly what the crew was saying, maybe what they were doing to the airplane itself, and subsequently how the airplane was actually responding to these various inputs that were put in by the crew. That then paints the picture, as you mentioned earlier, and starts the process of developing scenarios to understand not only what happened but more importantly why the accident occurred.
	Technology and air travel
	GWEN IFILL: Mr. Forte, the 767 as you mentioned is a pretty new generation plane, a very good plane as you described it. How difficult is that to fly for a human being or how much of it is on remote control basically once you get up in the air? TIM FORTE: I believe Boeing did a wonderful job of putting new technology, mixing that new technology with the human input and in a way that capitalizes on all the good things of technology and all the good things of the human element in that. The aircraft has been very reliable. We've seen very few incidents that would lead to look for any kind of systemic safety issues. And, as I mentioned earlier, there are 800 operating worldwide for close to 18 years now. GWEN IFILL: So, Mr. Dickinson, what should we novices be looking for as the next real key about what happened here? LEE DICKINSON: Well, I think you have to keep in mind what Jim Hall said today in his briefing. You would have to assume that the NTSB is continuing to look at the flight data recorder they're listening to, as he mentioned they've convened what is known as a cockpit voice recorder committee where people will actually be listening to the tape and developing a transcript. If, indeed, they find a point in time where they believe that they should be moving away from the investigation, that decision will be made. So, I would be looking forward to the next day or so. GWEN IFILL: Mr. Forte, what are you hoping to hear? TIM FORTE: You have to remember that there are world-class performance engineers at the NTSB. I'm confident they'll be able to take that date from the both the flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder and the air traffic tape and determine a probable cause or, as Mr. Hall hinted at, transfer it to an appropriate agency. GWEN IFILL: Thank you very much, Mr. Forte and Mr. Dickinson. LEE DICKINSON: You're welcome.