HURRICANE FLOYD UPDATE

September 15, 1999
		Max Mayfield of the National Hurricane Center gives an update on the strength and position of Hurricane Floyd, which is expected to make landfall in the Carolinas tonight. [Editor's Note: This interview was conducted at 5:26 pm ET]

Sept. 15, 1999: Hurricane Floyd begins its trek north along the U.S. east coast. Online NewsHour Special Report Killer Tornadoes in the Midwest Dec. 28, 1998: A look at the year's devastating weather. Nov. 30, 1998: Honduras begins rebuilding after Hurricane Mitch Nov. 2, 1998: Hurricane Mitch ravages Central America Sept. 28, 1998: Hurricane Georges downgraded to a tropical storm Sept. 25, 1998: Hurricane Georges threatens lives from Florida to Louisiana Sept. 24, 1998: Tracking hurricane Georges: Aug. 12, 1998: Flooding on the Yangtze takes over 2000 lives in China Aug. 7, 1998: Texas tops 100 degrees for twenty-ninth day. July 20, 1998: Tidal wave hits Papua New Guinea July 17, 1998: A Texas heat wave Jan. 12, 1998: A severe ice storm strikes Northeastern U.S. and Canada Browse the NewsHour's complete coverage of weather.     Storm Prediction Center National Weather Service FEMA	JIM LEHRER: The hurricane update comes once again tonight from the National Hurricane Center in Miami. A short time ago I spoke with Max Mayfield, deputy director of the center. Mr. Mayfield, welcome. MAX MAYFIELD: Thank you, Jim. JIM LEHRER: As we speak, where is Floyd at the moment?
	Floyd's whereabouts
	MAX MAYFIELD: Well, right now the center of Floyd is about 215 miles to the to south/southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina, headed towards the north at about 17 miles per hour. We think that the eye will actually be on the coast sometime shortly after midnight in the vicinity of Wilmington. If it actually moves to the left of that track a little bit earlier, if it's to the right, a little bit later. But we don't want to just focus on that eye. This is a large hurricane, and in fact, the hurricane force winds extend out about 140 miles to the northeast of the center. The worst conditions will be nearer and to the East of where the eye crosses the coast. So it looks like right now, it's primarily the North Carolina coast that's going to take the brunt of this hurricane. JIM LEHRER: Mid-Atlantic defined as what in terms of states? MAX MAYFIELD: Well, it looks like the landfall will likely be here near the South Carolina/North Carolina border, and then it will start turning more towards the Northeast. And I think by this time tomorrow evening it will be moving over the lower Chesapeake, and then start accelerating outward and to the East, off the New England coast, and then in another day it will be racing up over Newfoundland somewhere. JIM LEHRER: And how strong will the winds be? MAX MAYFIELD: Well, it looks like the good news here is that it has weakened a little bit. It's down to 115 miles per hour. That's still a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, still capable of producing considerable damage. By the time it moves inland, it will start to weaken, obviously, and I think by this time tomorrow, it will be either a strong tropical storm or a weak hurricane. But it's still strong enough and moving fast enough that these strong hurricane-force winds will spread over much of the eastern portions of North Carolina. JIM LEHRER: Okay. And there's also a surge that goes with this, is there not? I mean there's flooding in addition just to wind possibilities? MAX MAYFIELD: Exactly, Jim. In fact, if you go back historically, you'll find that nine out of ten people have been killed by the storm surge in a hurricane, and we have been talking to emergency management people all up and down the coastline here, and it sounds like they really have gotten the people to respond very well and gotten away from the coastline. We also want to emphasize these winds that we talked about spreading inland and the rainfall. If you go back over the last 30 years, we've looked at the deaths in the United States from land-falling hurricanes, and we've actually had a considerable loss of life from inland flooding, as well. So hopefully we can have some lessons learned here and not do anything foolish. We also have loss of life from people driving their cars through flooded out roadways, and also young children playing in flooded streams and rivers, being swept away. So if we use some common sense here, we don't have to have that loss of life. JIM LEHRER: Now, when you use the term "surge," what do you... define that for us. MAX MAYFIELD: Okay. It's really...it's a dome of water that comes in gradually. It's already coming in here while the hurricane is well off the coast. And then as it makes landfall, it comes in much faster and we're actually expecting seven to eleven feet of storm surge near and to the east of where that eye crosses the coast. That's not nearly as much as Hurricane Hugo. They had about a 20-foot storm surge in Hurricane Hugo, but this is certainly enough to cause considerable damage there on the North Carolina Coast. And then as it moves up towards the northeast, we expect lower valleys, probably two to four feet, say in the lower Chesapeake and also Delmarva in that region. JIM LEHRER: What kind of rainfall should we expect? MAX MAYFIELD: Well, that's a real problem because they've had so much rain already in North Carolina and Southeastern Virginia. The ground is very saturated already. We're forecasting six to twelve inches of additional rainfall, so I think that's going to help, you know, knock some trees down as those strong winds spread inland as well.
	A tentative schedule
	JIM LEHRER: Continue the kind of tentative schedule here, or the expectation. Southeast Virginia tomorrow, correct? MAX MAYFIELD: Right. And moving up...you know, it's a large circulation still, so it will be moving over the lower Chesapeake and the Delmarva Peninsula tomorrow evening. Then the following evening it should be somewhere off the New England coast. Our track actually has it passing near the Cape Cod area. This will be more like a wintertime storm, I think, up in the Northeast. It'll be accelerating out fairly rapidly, but it will be a significant wind, rain event and some coastal flooding. JIM LEHRER: And the major hit comes tomorrow. What kind of things should...what kind of damage should be anticipated? What could this thing do? MAX MAYFIELD: Yeah, I really think the main damage is going to occur tonight, and it's going to be on that North Carolina coast and the upper South Carolina coast from the storm surge, from the strong winds and also the rainfall. Now, the rainfall is going to spread well inland, so the threat from the rainfall will be over a much, much larger area. And we really want people to know that a hurricane is not just a coastal event. We also have that loss of life well inland from the flooding, and we really don't want to see that happen. JIM LEHRER: All right. Mr. Mayfield, thank you very much. MAX MAYFIELD: Thank you, Jim.