POLITICAL POLLS

October 13, 1998
	With the November elections weeks away, politicians will be watching the polls closely to see what effect the impeachment inquiry decision has had on the electorate. After a look at current polls, Jim Lehrer and guests discuss the history and impact of political polling.

Sept. 23, 1998: Three pollsters examine opinion surveys on President Clinton. Sept. 22, 1998: Members of the House Judiciary Committee discuss Clinton's grand jury testimony. Sept. 15, 1998: Kohut analyzes public opinion of President Clinton. Aug. 19, 1998: Is the public sick of the Lewinsky story? Aug. 18,1998: Kohut explores America's opinion of its president. Browse the NewsHour's coverage of the Starr Investigation, Conversations On Clinton, and Omaha's Views.   Pew Research Center White House	MARGARET WARNER: We sample the mood of the country now, just three weeks before the election and five days after the House of Representatives voted to authorize an impeachment inquiry of President Clinton. To do so, we're joined by Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. So, Andy, how does the public feel about Congress's goal last week to launch this impeachment inquiry?
	Voice of the people.
	ANDREW KOHUT: Well, the public has been saying for some time that they didn't want to see this get to the impeachment stage, and so naturally their reaction last week was on balance a negative one. The Washington Post all found the majority of people saying they disapproved of this decision. We asked in a survey of a thousand people over the weekend if they have a favorable opinion or an unfavorable opinion and we have a slide of this – of members who voted for the impeachment inquiry, and by a 40 to 50 percent margin people said they had an unfavorable view of this. Now, that overall number masks a lot of variability by partisanship. 70 percent of the Republicans said they had a favorable opinion. 70 percent of the Democrats said they had an unfavorable opinion, and the independents divided, 39 favorable, 50 percent unfavorable. So, in effect, the core constituents were satisfied by this largely party line vote, but on balance people didn't like it because they didn't want to see it get to just one more stage. MARGARET WARNER: So do these numbers translate then into how they feel about the way Congress has handled the impeachment inquiry in general? ANDREW KOHUT: Well, as we might expect with the specific decision being unpopular, reaction to both parties is not very good first, and we have to decide on this as well by a two to one margin, 31 to 62 percent, in The Washington Post poll this weekend, people said that they didn't largely disapprove of the way the Republicans are handling it. Now the Democrats in Congress get a somewhat better rating, 39 percent approved, 49 percent disapprove, but that too not very much to write home about. The public doesn't like what Congress did last week, and there's not real happiness and satisfaction. MARGARET WARNER: So neither party can really take much solace from these numbers?
	Predicting the elections.
	ANDREW KOHUT: No. Both parties did a lot – did things for their own core constituents, but for the average voter, for the average citizen, this isn't something that they wanted to see happen. MARGARET WARNER: Now, as we approach the mid-term elections, of course, there's always great interest in how the country sees Congress as a whole in the job it's doing. Has this unhappiness with the impeachment affected how the public feels about Congress's just general job approval? ANDREW KOHUT: As background to that, this year for the first time we've seen very historically high favorability and approval ratings for Congress, in the 60's approaching 70 percent. But two polls last week showed a backlash reaction to these impeachment hearings. The Gallup Poll found a big drop during the week, even before the decision came down, and again this Washington Post poll, which we have a graphic on, showed a big slice – September 28 – 25 to 28 – before the vote – 52 approved, 44 disapproved – for Congress at large. Over the weekend that slid to 45 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove. So again we see backlash as this process advances, just as we saw backlash against the Republican leadership after the president's testimony, which the public said it didn't want to see. MARGARET WARNER: Now does a congressional approval poll like this predict with any accuracy how incumbents are going to fare in the election – current members of Congress -- in historical terms?
	"Reaction may be transient."
	ANDREW KOHUT: In historical terms, yes. I mean, if Congress is well regarded, incumbents do well. If Congress is not well regarded, incumbents do less well. But one of the things about these quick reaction polls is that a lot of the reaction may be transient. We don't know. I mean, we are in unchartered ground. We're doing quick polls – sometimes polls with pretty small samples – and the numbers are – are jumping around. They're jumping around for reaction to Congress and certainly also for some of the more direct partisan preference questions. MARGARET WARNER: Also, the candidates out there are not talking about this impeachment issue much. They're talking about a lot of other issues, Social Security, or defense matters, education. Do these polls tell us whether the impeachment issue is really that important to the voters in terms of being a voting issue? ANDREW KOHUT: Four years ago people said at very high rates Clinton and Washington were issues. Upcoming – leading up to this scandal we were finding from the public that it was largely focused on local issues. The $64 question is will people be thinking about local issues, or even substantive national issues, or will they see this as a referendum on Bill Clinton. And again, we don't know the answer because people haven't been thinking about the races, just all of the national coverage, and I would guess a lot of coverage in local papers have been focused on these things, not on these 435 races that are going to take place in three weeks. MARGARET WARNER: And finally, Andy, has there been any change either in the president's approval rating or in what percentage of the voters want to see him impeached and removed from office? ANDREW KOHUT: Well, at a time when the president's ratings went – the Congress's ratings went down, the president's ratings either stayed high or went up or stayed close to 60 percent, and when we look at the impeachment measure favoring impeachment or resignation, we find very little movement. Our poll this week in which we have a slide on found 30 percent thinking it would be a good idea, thinking that Clinton should be impeached and removed from office, 59 percent saying no and 11 percent saying they weren't sure. Now we have a little historical perspective on this when in February of 1974, when the Gallup Poll asked about the same question, when the Judiciary Committee voted in favor of hearings -- MARGARET WARNER: For President Nixon.
	A different situation.
	ANDREW KOHUT: For President Nixon. The opinion was – was pretty similar. Now this was a very different environment and this was well after the Saturday night massacre, and President Clinton – and President Nixon's approval rating was 28, not 58 or 67. And so it was quite a different – he had far less political capital and a different situation entirely or in some significant ways. MARGARET WARNER: All right. Well, thanks, Andy, thanks very much. We'll see you again. ANDREW KOHUT: Okay.