The Mid-Atlantic States
Robert L Bresler
Professor of Public Policy
Penn State University - Harrisburg
If Bob Dole's national campaign appears stuck in first gear, his Mid-Atlantic campaign is going in reverse. Dole's efforts to reach out to moderate Republicans have shown little results and may have served only to depress the enthusiasm of the religious right, the gun lobby, and the Buchananites. Meanwhile, the Republican Congress and President Clinton are finding it easier to locate the political center of gravity as they prepare to cut a deal on health care and welfare reform. Voters in this region, despite the endemic complaining, may decide this type of divided government suits their needs and vote to send both back to Washington. Right now, Clinton's big lead in all these states has put only a few Republican incumbents in danger.
Pennsylvania (23 electoral votes): According to the Keystone Poll, Dole is further behind (24 points) in July than he was in June. Placing Gov. Tom Ridge on the ticket may give Dole a boost in this Keystone State, but it won't be a 24 point boost. Dole needs to do the heavy lifting himself and his failure to do so has some state Republicans nervous. For example, Republican freshman Rep. Phil English, elected by a hair from Tom Ridge's old district (18th - Erie), is
being targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The 18th District supported both Clinton in '92 and Dukakis in '88. and it is normally Democratic. English's opponent in a well financed trial lawyer with Hollywood connections, Ron Dinicola. In the 13th
District (Montgomery Co. - suburban Phila.), Rep. John Fox, another Republican is
considered a favorite, but he may not withstand a landslide.
New York (33 electoral votes): The Clinton-Dole gap in New York, 33 points (Quinnipiac College Poll - mid-June), looks unbridgeable. Dole may well write off the state after the convention, if he hasn't already. Dole has no affinity with New York's ethnic voters, faces possible defection from Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, and his strongest supporter, Sen. Al D'Amato, has been openly critical of the campaign. Yet, the Democrats' only major hope of a Congressional gain is in the 1st Congressional District (Long Island - Suffolk Co.) occupied by freshman Republican Michael Forbes.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes): Clinton has maintained an approximate 20 point lead here since the early spring. Any excitement in New Jersey will probably come from the Senate race for retiring Senator Bill Bradley's seat where Democratic Rep. Robert Torricelli faces Republican Rep. Dick Zimmer. Rep. Torricelli has been endorsed by a few local Republicans and is positioning himself to gain the disenchanted moderate Republican vote. Zimmer, himself a more moderate Republican, may have the same problem that is dogging Dole -- keeping socially conservatives happy while recapturing the loyalty of moderate Republicans. Presently, the, Democrat's expectation for a gain in the House is in the 8th District. In that Northern New Jersey district, Freshman Republican Bill Martini is considered one of the most vulnerable members of his class and is a prime target of the Democrats. His opponent William Pascerelli has significant labor backing. Like Zimmer (and Dole?), Martini will move to re-establish his moderate credentials.
Maryland (10 electoral votes): This state has long been more Democratic than the rest of the country (Clinton carried it in '92 by 14 points). A spring George Washington University poll showed Clinton ahead by 16 points, a lead that has probably widened. The only House seat possibly in play is the 2nd District, where Freshman Republican Robert Ehrlich should withstand even a disaster at the head of the ticket.
Delaware (3 electoral votes): If Dole could not beat Steve Forbes in this state's primary, there is little reason to believe he could beat President Clinton. This small, but diverse state, tends to follow national trends. There is likely to be little political excitement in Delaware this year. Democratic Senator Joe Biden is a lock for re-election as is At-Large Representative Republican Michael Castle.
