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MID-ATLANTIC STATES ANALYSIS
By Jonathan D. Salant of Congressional Quarterly
If the Democrats are going to take back the House of Representatives this fall, they will have to pick up some seats in the Middle Atlantic. Districts in New York and New Jersey would seem to fit the bill.
In Northern New Jersey, Republican Bill Martini is the first Republican to represent the area around the cities of Paterson and Passaic in 34 years. He narrowly ousted Democrat Herb Klein by just 1,800 votes two years ago.
This year, the Democrats have nominated William Pascrell Jr., the mayor of Paterson and a state representative. (New Jersey state lawmakers also can hold a municipal office.) Martini was a loyal member of the new House Republican majority at the beginning of the 104th Congress, backing the "Contract With America" 91 percent of the time, but since has demonstrated his independence, bucking the leadership on issues such as raising the minimum wage.
In the Buffalo area, Republican Jack Quinn is in a similar position. Voters in the district backed both Michael Dukakis and Bill Clinton, the last two Democratic presidential candidates, but nevertheless elected a Republican in 1992 to represent them in the House. This should be a Democratic district, yet Quinn was re-elected in 1994. This time, a popular Democratic Assemblyman, Francis Pordum, is taking on Quinn.
Pordum likely will be helped by the head of the Democratic ticket, President Clinton, who is strongly favored to carry the Empire State.
But New Jersey traditionally has been a swing state in presidential elections, going for Republicans Ronald Reagan in 1984 and George Bush in 1988, but supporting Democrat Clinton in 1992. Clinton's performance in the state may be key this fall to the House races and the race to succeed retiring Bill Bradley in the Senate. Democratic Rep. Robert G. Torricelli and Republican Rep. Dick Zimmer are the candidates in race that pollsters say is too close to call.
Pennsylvania is another battleground state; its 23 electoral votes are the fifth biggest prize in the presidential campaign behind California, New York, Texas and Florida. Clinton carried the state in 1992 while Bush won in 1988, but by just three percentage points. Republicans now hold both Senate seats and the governorship, but those positions, too, have swung back and forth.
Democrats are hoping to oust freshman Phil English, who represents a Democratic-leaning district in the northwest portion of the state, while Republicans have trained their sights on Democrat Paul McHale, whose district takes in Allentown and Bethlehem. McHale bucked the 1994 Republican tide but just barely; he won a second term by just 471 votes.
Maryland also has swung back and forth in recent presidential elections, but its congressional elections hold little excitement this fall. In the Montgomery County suburbs of Washington, D.C., the Democratic-leaning congressional district continues to vote Republican in House races, electing Connie Morella. A moderate Republican, Morella supported the House Republicans' Contract With America just 68 percent last year, the lowest scored among GOP lawmakers. That independence has helped her win five terms in the district and makes her a strong favorite for a sixth this fall.
Delaware holds little surprise. All of its incumbents are expected to win re-election. And though the state was the first to ratify the Constitution, its paltry three electoral votes puts it far down on the list when presidential candidates map out their fall campaign swings.
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