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NEW ENGLAND POLITICAL OUTLOOK
JULY 1996
Howard L. Reiter
The University of ConnecticutAs of mid-summer 1996, the outlook for President Clinton in New England appears as rosy as it has been in the nation as a whole. Indeed, a compilation of public opinion surveys from August 1995 through April 1996 by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found New England the most fertile ground for Democrats of any region of the nation:
Clinton Approval GOP Congressional leaders' Approval USA 49% 36% Massachusetts 61% 28% Rest of New England 52% 31% Should President Clinton carry New England, as he did in 1992, this would not be surprising. Of all the nation's regions, New England has been the friendliest to Democratic presidential candidates since John F. Kennedy ran in 1960:
MEAN PRESIDENTIAL PERCENTAGER 1960-1992:
Democratic Republican USA 43.8 % 50.3% New England 48.6% 46.2% Indeed, the neighboring mid-Atlantic region was the only other one in which the Democrats also outpolled the Republicans. Of course, there is variation within the region. Massachusetts and Rhode Island go Democratic except during strong GOP landslides; New Hampshire is equally Republican; Connecticut and Vermont usually go Republican, but Democrats have a shot at carrying both; and Maine is ruggedly independent. The Pine Tree State is the only state that has elected two independent governors in the past 25 years, and boasted Ross Perot's strongest showing four years ago. Nevertheless, on the whole, New England remains friendly territory for the Clinton-Gore ticket this year.
Background Factor #1: It's the Economy
The recession of the early 1990s battered New England perhaps worse than in any other region, and helps explain why Bush lost the entire region despite his roots here. The region has been the slowest to emerge from the recession, but since early 1995 its job growth has been near the national average. With nearly half New England's jobs, Massachusetts dominates the region economically, and with about one-fourth the jobs, Connecticut is second. All in all, Massachusetts and New Hampshire have made the strongest recovery; Connecticut and Rhode Island (dependent on such troubled industries as insurance and defense), the weakest.
For New England as a whole, reaching the national average in job growth represents real recovery, and may help explain the relative strength of the Democrats.
Background Factor #2: It's the Culture
Throughout American history, New England has represented one pole of the national culture with the Deep South at the other extreme. Whether the issue was slavery, populism, or the New Deal, these regions have polarized. Therefore it is not surprising that New England has been largely immune to the remarkable growth of the GOP in the south and far west. Since part of that growth has been linked to evangelical religious movements, it is worth emphasizing that such denominations have been relatively weak in New England. Short-term economic fluctuations aside, New England's relative affluence may also explain why its people have generally not turned to populism in all its varieties.
By and large, the political culture of New England has resisted some of the more extreme political movements of recent decades. Republicans in New England -- Chafee, Jeffords, Weicker, Cohen, Snowe -- have been among the nation's most moderate. The right-to-life movement has not found the region very hospitable, with the partial exception of Maine, whose rural poverty provides a social milieu comparable to other parts of the nation. With its famous resistance to taxation, New Hampshire provides another partial counterweight to the rest of the region, and its Republicans have been more conservative than other New Englanders of their party.
A Note on Connecticut's Elections
Connecticut has no gubernatorial or Senatorial election this year, but all members of its legislature -- Republicans have a one-vote majority in the state senate, while Democrats more comfortably control the house -- are up, as are of course all six U.S. Representatives. The delegation is evenly divided, and two of the Democrats (Barbara Kennelly from Hartford and Rosa DeLauro from New Haven) and two of the Republicans (Christopher Shays from Stamford and Nancy Johnson from New Britain) are considered safe.
The endangered Democrat is Sam Gejdenson of Bozrah, who has represented the relatively rural eastern part of the state since 1980 and is the dean of the delegation. In 1992 and 1994 he was nearly defeated by Edward Munster, a former state senator; the recount of the vote in 1994 gave Gejdenson a 21-vote lead. Munster is trying again, but faces a primary in September against state representative Andrew Norton. Norton is younger and considered by many a fresher face who is not tarnished by Munster's two defeats. Regarded as more moderate than Munster, Norton might prove more of a threat to Gejdenson.
The Republican in trouble is Gary Franks of Waterbury, who in 1990 became the first African-American since the early 1930s to be elected to the House as a Republican, The most conservative member of the delegation and one who represents a district with many blue-collar constituents, Franks has been targeted by Democrats for years. In 1994 he defeated James Maloney, a state senator who had survived a bruising primary, by 52 to 46 percent of the vote. This year Maloney is back, minus a primary, and especially if Clinton does well, may give Franks a stiffer challenge.
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