Demographics and Money
The Race in California's 27th Congressional District

October 13, 2000: In California's 27th congressional district, Republican incumbent Jim Rogan and Democratic challenger Adam Schiff are battling it out in a tight race that involves the impeachment of President Clinton, millions of dollars in campaign contributions and even Armenian genocide. Billed as a hugely expensive battle over Rogan's role as a House impeachment manager, this campaign, now leaning slightly in Schiff's favor, may be more about demographics northeast of Los Angeles than national scandal and money.

Rogan's seat was targeted early on in the Democrats' effort to gain control of the House. His high-profile role as a House prosecutor in the Senate impeachment trial of President Clinton helped attract donors to both candidates. Through September 30, Rogan and Schiff had collectively raised over $9 million dollars, surpassing the record $8 million spent in Newt Gingrich's 1996 race and putting them on track to break the $10 million mark.

Rogan, who is running for his third term, has contributors in over 45 states. Nationwide sources are likewise funding Schiff, and he has attracted big-name donors like movie mogul David Geffen. The candidates' contributors number in the tens of thousands, with conservative political action committees and pro-business entities backing Rogan, and trial lawyers and labor unions helping Schiff. Among the fund-raisers and donors are many for whom impeachment is the rallying call.

Despite the nationwide funding and the impeachment vendettas, this race is a Democratic target for another reason: The 27th is no longer the traditionally conservative district that Rogan's predecessor, Republican Carlos J. Moorhead, served for 24 years. An influx of immigrants, highlighted by the nation's largest Armenian community, is shifting the district away from white conservatism and towards a multi-cultural populace that leans Democratic.

The numbers tell the tale. Latinos currently make up 20 percent of the district's population. Blacks and Asian comprise another 20 percent. Almost half of Glendale's residents are foreign born, with 60 languages spoken in its public schools. Rogan won in 1996 and 1998 by less than eight percentage points, tallying only 51 and 50 percent of the vote respectively. Clinton took the district in both 1992 and 1996. When Rogan won office in 1996, voter registration was nearly even between Democrats and Republicans. Today the Democrats have a seven-point advantage.

The influx of immigrants may correlate with the shift in voter registration, but it is still unclear which way the immigrant communities will go. The changes are forcing Rogan and Schiff to localize their campaigns and they are especially courting the Armenian vote. Estimates suggest ethnic Armenians could comprise up to 10 percent of the district's voters. Given that Schiff outpolled Rogan 49 to 47 percent in the March open primary, the candidates are battling hard for the favor of the district's 21,000 Armenian-American voters.

Rep. Rogan is a lead sponsor of a bill in Congress to commemorate the death and expulsion of 1.5 million Armenians by the Ottoman Turks from 1915 to 1923. The bill, which describes the event as genocide, has provoked strong opposition from the Turkish government, which has threatened to deny American use of a Turkish air base if the measure is adopted. The House International Relations Committee approved the resolution in early October, but a House vote was canceled later in the month after intense pressure from the White House.

State Senator Schiff countered by procuring about $500,000 for an Armenian Film Foundation documentary and by working on trade relations between California and Armenia. The Armenian National Committee, the nation's largest organization of ethnic Armenians, rewarded Schiff's efforts with its endorsement. The organization had backed Rogan twice before, but the Congressman has managed to pick up the endorsement of two smaller Armenian groups.

With immigrant communities potentially holding the deciding votes, Rogan and Schiff are keen to discuss local issues and leave impeachment debates to their national fundraisers. Ironically, the candidates tend to be on the same side of some local concerns. Both oppose completing the I-710 Freeway, arguing that closing a 30-year-old 4.5-mile gap in the highway would wreck some Pasadena-area neighborhoods. Both also oppose foothill developments near the Verdugo and San Gabriel Mountains.

Schiff's victory in the March open primary and the Democratic edge in voter registration give Democrats hope in picking up the 27th district. Still, with impeachment off the table, expect Rogan and Schiff to aim their millions of dollars towards the district's new faces.