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The Independent
Vote
By Professor Paul Watanabe of University of Massachusetts
-- Boston
In one way or another, Massachusetts has managed on numerous occasions
to play an important role in the quadrennial quest for the nation's highest
office. The Bay State, in recent years, has supplied some serious contenders
for the Democratic presidential nomination. In 1980, Senator Edward Kennedy
challenged incumbent Jimmy Carter for the nomination. Eight years later,
Governor Michael Dukakis became the Democratic standard-bearer, and former
Senator Paul Tsongas ran a spirited and courageous campaign for the 1992
nomination.
For a period of time, it appeared that in 2000 Massachusetts would once
again field a contender for the Democratic nomination. The state's junior
United States Senator John Kerry openly flirted with the idea of seeking
the nomination. He eventually backed off in the face of what seemed at
the time to be an inevitable march by Gore to become his party's standard-bearer.
Until recently, the Massachusetts primary carried some clout because
of its position early in the nomination season. With the stampede toward
front-loading, however, Massachusetts voters on March 7th will have lots
of company. On that date alone, especially with the addition of the California
primary, about 50 percent of the Democratic and 40 percent of the Republican
delegates needed to capture the presidential nominations will be up for
grabs.
With the first in the nation New Hampshire presidential primary next
door, the candidate onslaught and the accompanying media barrage falls
on Massachusetts like a mid-winter blizzard. Consequently, Massachusetts
citizens are in an excellent position early on to scrutinize the candidates
from both parties. In 2000, voters might be particularly attentive. For
only the second time since 1952, Massachusetts primary voters in both
parties will have clearly open choices. That is both ballots will be devoid
of anyone who is either an incumbent candidate or a Massachusetts favorite
son.
One wild card element in the Massachusetts presidential primary election
is the state's uncommonly large number of voters (just short of 50% of
total registered voters) who are not affiliated with any political party.
These unenrolled voters can vote in either party's primary election and
can be a decisive factor in the final outcomes. Republicans represent
a mere13% of registered voters.
On the Republican side, Massachusetts GOP leaders are doing everything
possible to keep the George W. Bush juggernaut steaming ahead. The state's
Republican brass headed by Governor Paul Cellucci, who chairs the Bush
effort in Massachusetts, hopes to deliver in a big way for the Texas governor.
Cellucci indicated openly that he covets a high position in a Bush administration.
Among the other strengths that he can exploit, George W. does have some
indirect ties to Massachusetts - his father was born here and he attended
Philips Andover Academy and Harvard Business School. John McCain's impressive
victory in New Hampshire has in Massachusetts as elsewhere changed things
dramatically. McCain clearly has the ability to topple Bush in Massachusetts
especially if a large number of unenrolled voters participate in the Republican.
The appeal of McCain's candidacy is also created with motivating a sizeable
group of Democrats to change their registration to Republican or unenrolled
as a precursor to their voting in the Republican primary.
The fact that 2000 will be a rather quiet year for contests in Massachusetts
might affect the level of contributions by Bay Staters to presidential
candidates. The ballot in Massachusetts will be devoid of any contests
for statewide constitutional offices, and the Senate race will be the
lone statewide matchup. This could mean that with a greater pool of campaign
cash to go around and with a thriving state economy Massachusetts residents
might be particularly generous in donating to presidential aspirants.
Indeed, candidates have already dipped deeply into the pockets of Massachusetts
contributors.
As far as the Democrats are concerned, the theory goes that for well
or ill much of Gore's fate rests with his attachment to President Clinton.
Clinton has always been able to generate remarkable sums of money from
Massachusetts supporters. His impressive fundraising machine has been
cranked up for the Veep. On the other hand, Clinton's radioactivity could
prove to be a liability. Certainly, if Massachusetts Democratic primary
voters with their special embrace of Clinton show the effects of Clinton
fatigue, then Gore is definitely in trouble elsewhere and the nomination
could go slip sliding away. The door could be opened for Bill Bradley
as long as Celtic mad Massachusetts voters can forgive him for being a
mainstay of the hated New York Knicks.
The commonwealth's senior U.S. senator, Ted Kennedy, no longer has the
White House on his mind, but he is gearing himself up for a re-election
run in 2000. Plymouth County District Attorney Michael J. Sullivan is
the only individual to emerge as a possible Republican challenger. Kennedy
is so confident of victory that he is already talking about running again
in 2006. If he were able to win in 2000 and 2006 and serve out his term,
Kennedy would have held onto his Senate seat for half a century. In 1994,
Kennedy faced his toughest re-election challenge ever. Republican nominee
Mitt Romney was smart and very well-financed. Kennedy, however, summoned
all of his considerable political skills and resources to defeat the political
novice. Romney is now engaged in another daunting task - trying to guide
the Salt Lake Winter Olympics effort after a period of scandal, misconduct,
and mismanagement.
With less than a year before the 2000 congressional elections, not a
single member of the Massachusetts Congressional delegation, all Democrats,
faces any declared Republican opposition. Indeed, at this time it appears
that the greatest potential, although unlikely, threat to any of the Democratic
incumbents might be a primary challenge by another Democrat.
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